December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[ForestHillWx]

There's something special about our southern friends getting multiple years worth of snow in one shot, that I find impressive. 

Sadly, they are ill prepared for 1/10th of what is projected to fall. Hopefully it warms up quickly for them. 

[bluewave]

This MJO 3-5 passage looks like it will be impressive for all of North America. It's the strongest +EPO pattern since at least last summer and will  produce with our mid-December thaw pattern here. 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 1deg. BN.

Just a 35% chance of at least 2" of Snow during the next 15 days----GEFS.    EPS has had empty 10-day periods for 3 days now.

Something should pop up by the 24th or so. The transition to more El Niño weather will create some interesting weather for the East Coast.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

So much for any December warmup. Aside from any short lived warm punches ahead of a cutter it looks like we generally stay below normal with at least the chance of something frozen from now through the holiday week.  

[North and West]

10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

So much for any December warmup. Aside from any short lived warm punches ahead of a cutter it looks like we generally stay below normal with at least the chance of something frozen from now through the holiday week.  

The lack of precipitation reminds me of the winters of my elementary school years, which were 1987-1993. Good times for winter. (I lied)

I remember being over the moon getting an entire foot of snow in March 1993 towards the end of fifth grade. It was our first snow day in years. Now my kids have already had one this year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[495weatherguy]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

The lack of precipitation reminds me of the winters of my elementary school years, which were 1987-1993. Good times for winter. (I lied)

I remember being over the moon getting an entire foot of snow in March 1993 towards the end of fifth grade. It was our first snow day in years. Now my kids have already had one this year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I am a bit older than you, and I don’t think I had more than 2 snow days on LI while going to school.   We did have some storms of greater than one foot, but they seemingly always occurred on a vacation.  My kids think snow days are a given due to the propensity for big storms now

[North and West]

41 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I am a bit older than you, and I don’t think I had more than 2 snow days on LI while going to school.   We did have some storms of greater than one foot, but they seemingly always occurred on a vacation.  My kids think snow days are a given due to the propensity for big storms now

Bingo. My older son kinda "mehs" at what I consider a moderate storm, such as this past November 15th. He asks when we can expect another January 2016 or March 2018 event, as if they're a dime a dozen.

[495weatherguy]

Just now, North and West said:

Bingo. My older son kinda "mehs" at what I consider a moderate storm, such as this past November 15th. He asks when we can expect another January 2016 or March 2018 event, as if they're a dime a dozen.

As a kid listening to 1010 wins for the best weather info(pre cable)I was taught that storms were ALWAYS better(more snow)north and west of LI.  Tappan Zee bridge or 287 was always the dividing line. 

4 inches was a significant amount of snow back then, 8 inches paralyzing

[doncat]

Some mention Dec 1989...That month was amazingly  cold, dry and relatively snowless...My station had a 24.8° mean temp with only 1.2" of snow and 0.89" of precip.

[495weatherguy]

14 minutes ago, doncat said:

Some mention Dec 1989...That month was amazingly  cold, dry and relatively snowless...My station had a 24.8° mean temp with only 1.2" of snow and 0.89" of precip.

I don't have the stats to back this up, but I recall the cold weather beginning in October of that year and continuing through December, but relatively snowless

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, doncat said:

Some mention Dec 1989...That month was amazingly  cold, dry and relatively snowless...My station had a 24.8° mean temp with only 1.2" of snow and 0.89" of precip.

That's probably one analog that we won't have to worry about anytime soon. No December since then has come close to a -10.3 departure in NYC. The coldest NYC has been able to do during the 2010's has been a -4.7 in 2010. Even with the very cold ending to last December, NYC still  finished at only -2.5.

[the_other_guy]

1989...early November snow...meh rest of winter. 

 

Like every winter that had an early November major snowfall. A couple had 1 big storm...but most were below normal in snowfall.

 

Fighting history this year. 

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

1989...early November snow...meh rest of winter. 

 

Like every winter that had an early November major snowfall. A couple had 1 big storm...but most were below normal in snowfall.

 

Fighting history this year. 

 

 

In winters where NYC gets 3" or more in November NYC goes on to average something like 36".

[Cfa]

36” is pretty much average at this point.

[Stormlover74]

The 12/15/89 storm screwed us as well. Temps in the 20s and 4 -8" expected and turned into a driving rainstorm at the coast followed by bitter arctic air for 2 weeks but just occasional snow showers to briefly whiten the ground

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's probably one analog that we won't have to worry about anytime soon. No December since then has come close to a -10.3 departure in NYC. The coldest NYC has been able to do during the 2010's has been a -4.7 in 2010. Even with the very cold ending to last December, NYC still  finished at only -2.5.

This December may actually end up at or AN so I'm not sure where people are pulling the 89 analog from. 

This month won't be remotely similar.

[doncat]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

I don't have the stats to back this up, but I recall the cold weather beginning in October of that year and continuing through December, but relatively snowless

Yeah Nov was below normal also, with only that Thanksgiving snowstorm for the period. Also this day 1998 was 76 degrees here, my highest Dec temp.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Yeah Nov was below normal also, with only that Thanksgiving snowstorm for the period. Also this day 1998 was 76 degrees here, my highest Dec temp.

I remember that day!   Christmas tree shopping in shorts and a t-shirt

[mikem81]

Looks like a typical dry and cold and then wet and warm followed by dry and cold pattern...

[the_other_guy]

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

Along the same lines, winters have been so snowy for the last 20 years, at some point a return to the mean is due 

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

Eh, not that I have any science behind it (I don't), but we do tend to search for the negative reinforcements. I was just mentioning the other day, we'd be fretting if this was like 2015, with lots of warmth, and scant indication of a big January storm.

anyway, history can rhyme, but it doesn't always repeat itself.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

This was the first time on record that NYC had a 6"or greater snowstorm by November 15th. Other locations around the NY Metro had one after Sandy in 2012. So 2 events are just too small a sample to draw any conclusions one way or another.  The best we can say right now is that the November record storm was a reflection of the pattern at the time. 

Much of what has been happening during the 2010's is without historical precedent. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

Looks like a typical dry and cold and then wet and warm followed by dry and cold pattern...

For now

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

Looks like a typical dry and cold and then wet and warm followed by dry and cold pattern...

Until the 23rd. 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Until the 23rd. 

Maybe earlier

[Gravity Wave]

December has been a dead month for big storms for a while. As long as the El Nino pattern sets up by the end of the month we'll have our chances.

[NJwx85]

The big cut off low modeled for the end of next week is exciting.

What's not to love about PWAT's that are 3-4 STD above normal in mid December?

As modeled this would be a ton of rain and wind, similar to what we saw in March 2010 if the ULL deepens enough.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The big cut off low modeled for the end of next week is exciting.

What's not to love about PWAT's that are 3-4 STD above normal in mid December?

As modeled this would be a ton of rain and wind, similar to what we saw in March 2010 if the ULL deepens enough.

Yeah um that’s going to destroy an epic start to the ski season

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah um that’s going to destroy an epic start to the ski season

Yup, and the one after this one too