December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[CIK62]

EURO and GFS both in the fifties with the mid-month storm temps., but EURO has 3x the Rain at 4.5".   Watch how many times this changes.

[frd]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm more confident that this will be a snowy winter in the Middle Atlantic region than I am about the potential for record-challenging/setting cold.

 

 

Thanks Don, appreciate your thoughts ! 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Don - great write-up on the winter so far and the next couple of acts.  I hope you're right about it being a colder/snowier winter than normal - we've gotten used to that the last 10+ years, so I keep waiting for climo to kick back in and the fun to end, lol.  

Question for you: you answered frd's questions with very specific data on past climate in Philly and I've seen you do the same for many other locations, quite quickly - do you have proprietary data sources that you use or do you use public sources and, to do the statistical analyses that you do, do you have all these data in some relational database that allows simple queries or are you extracting raw data and then putting it into some simple spreadsheet or database that perhaps you've constructed that supports such queries?  I sometimes get asked questions on climate on other non-weather sites and I know it takes me a lot longer than ~30 minutes to find the relevant data and then do an analysis on that data, usually by hand.  I suspect you probably have access to reams of data and some sort of relational database that has built in queries to generate the kind of cool climo stats you share regularly or you're just way more efficient at it than I am, lol.  Anyway, love the stats you share.  

I don't have proprietary data. However, I have a spreadsheet containing data for Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington (areas that I discuss most often and that have records that go back to the 19th century) that I can rapidly access.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah. Warm, wet, and windy with 850's approaching +10C. The already heavy precip totals in 2018 should get another boost. Good storm signal with the big MJO 3-4 passage. Phases 3-5 are typically the warmest this time of year.

 

The ECMWF is exceptionally wet. It shows more than 3" QPF for NYC, which would be a rare event in December.

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't have proprietary data. However, I have a spreadsheet containing data for Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington (areas that I discuss most often and that have records that go back to the 19th century) that I can rapidly access.

Thanks!  Yeah, I can imagine having a good spreadsheet with that kind of data would be invaluable for quickly checking climo/records.  Have you ever talked to the NWS about sharing it?  I wish they provided data like that.  

[donsutherland1]

More on the debate over 1983 precipitation for NYC... (recently discussed by a number of us including @bluewave and @uncle W)

After the initial values had been left undecided, there was a subsequent review in which it was decided to accept them.

The explanation I was sent in an e-mail that concerned this issue is as follows:

It was decided after that call [a teleconference concerning the issue] to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983.

In sum, the 1983 figure of 80.56" is the official record.

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

More on the debate over 1983 precipitation for NYC...

After the initial values had been left undecided, there was a subsequent review in which it was decided to accept them.

The explanation I was sent in an e-mail that concerned this issue is as follows:

It was decided after that call [a teleconference concerning the issue] to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983.

In sum, the 1983 figure of 80.56" is the official record.

Don, which year and amount  for NYC is in 2nd place?

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks!  Yeah, I can imagine having a good spreadsheet with that kind of data would be invaluable for quickly checking climo/records.  Have you ever talked to the NWS about sharing it?  I wish they provided data like that.  

Thanks. I haven't, although a number of years ago I visited the Mount Holly office when I was in Philadelphia. The Office has access to a wide range of climate data and I know that some of the meteorologists there used to cite some of them periodically e.g., October data by ENSO and the coming winter. It's just tremendously busy at the Office and these days the offices are short-staffed making it difficult for their forecasters to spend much time on the historical data unless a major/historical event is imminent or has taken place. Personally, I don't believe the American public really understands what a tremendous asset the NWS is and how hard the NWS personnel work. This isn't meant to take anything away from the many outstanding private forecasting companies/meteorologists, but that was my impression from having spent some time at Mount Holly.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Don, which year and amount  for NYC is in 2nd place?

Top 3:

1. 80.56", 1983

2. 72.81", 2011

3. 67.03", 1972

[cardinalland]

48 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks!  Yeah, I can imagine having a good spreadsheet with that kind of data would be invaluable for quickly checking climo/records.  Have you ever talked to the NWS about sharing it?  I wish they provided data like that.  

There is a lot of historical data available at the ACIS website, here: http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/. There are lots of cool features like the accumulation graph which shows how our year's rainfall has compared to other years.

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said:

There is a lot of historical data available at the ACIS website, here: http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/. There are lots of cool features like the accumulation graph which shows how our year's rainfall has compared to other years.

Thanks for posting this.

[uncle W]

i use these sights for past weather...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E

[Toekneeweather]

On 12/5/2018 at 3:53 PM, Brasiluvsnow said:

Well I stand corrected,,,,at least I wrote it in layman terms lol

 it’s flurrying outside in the Bronx!

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

 it’s flurrying outside in the Bronx!

The flurries showed up on the radar, as well.

[Brasiluvsnow]

what is it that the gfs is showing ( cold ) a week from now on the 14th ? Looks like something to me , the FV3 ( warm ) shows it also 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

 it’s flurrying outside in the Bronx!

Thank God they brined!

[Rjay]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That storm was best over Suffolk County, it was a bit of a disappointment west of there and since the whole storm occurred over a short time, mostly at night, I never saw a single flake lol.

Hmm I got crushed.

Upton really got crushed.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Hmm I got crushed.

Upton really got crushed.

Same in SW Suffolk.  An even 21" here, if memory serves.  Unforgettable how it ticked just far enough north in the last 48 hours to nail us!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Hmm I got crushed.

Upton really got crushed.

It was 15 inches here but the main problem I had with it was that it occurred mostly late at night, the previous day we were waiting for the snow to get here and it was delayed and started late at night and by the time I woke up it was already gone.  Parts of Suffolk County got close to 30 inches so about double what we got, then again the City got about 8 inches, which was half of what we got lol.

[snywx]

Picked up a quick 0.5" here from a passing snow shower

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 2000 wasn’t much different.  Suppression and dry til the very end.  I don’t see this month resembling 89 or 2000 temp wise though or even 09.  It’ll probably be much closer to 2002 temp wise

Something thats really interesting is that NYC even with their 150+ year period of record has never had 6 inch snowfalls in both November and December.

How do you feel about comparing this month to December 2010?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was our historic 50 degree +13 December. We still got one of my all-time favorite snowstorms a month later. Followed by the first below 0 in NYC since 1994 in February. 

That was my favorite snowstorm of all time on many levels, intensity, duration, jackpot which rarely happens for us lol.  First jackpot since PD2!.  This area has been in the jackpot only three times in my life, Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016- and not coincidentally all were moderate or strong el ninos!

 

Finally no one can ever say that the Feb 1983 event was a fluke snowstorm and that you dont get such strong snowstorms in historic level el ninos- because it happened again with an even stronger el nino in Jan 2016 lol.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, it looks like we'll see our driest stretch in a while with this current more suppressed pattern. But the ensembles are indicating a relaxation of this suppression around mid-December with a possible rain and wind maker. Cold and dry has been one of our rarest combinations recently. 

Longer term, we always seem to find a way to to end up with above normal snow during this decade. But the way we get there could be unusual like it often is each year.

Looks like the weekend after this one will be pretty mild, 50s possible?  Next chance of snow and cold coming between Christmas and New Years?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, North and West said:

Honestly, not that I'm a fan of it from an excitement level, but it seems like we haven't had weather like this in a while; sustained cold and dry. I remember my dad mentioning that it was like this in 1976-1977; not sure if anyone can confirm those recollections.

I think it's good, too, from the aspect of allowing low-lying, flood-prone areas to dry out, and to help manage insect populations. 

Not exciting, but it's life.

Yeah we really need a long break from the wet pattern, it's been really hard to rake leaves and do fall planting stuff with all this abnormal rainfall going on.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Act 1 winter 2018-19 will conclude after this weekend's major Lower Middle Atlantic/Southeast snowstorm. The scenario painted by the return of a generally positive EPO and periodically positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) has shown up for some time on the ensembles.

A look at where we have been is helpful.

Scene 1 saw a historic November snowstorm in parts of the East. Cities such as Newark and New York had their biggest ever snowfall so early in the season.

Heavy snow blankets the New York City area (November 15)

Scene 2 featured an exceptional Arctic blast for Thanksgiving Day and the day after.

Central Park's 15° temperature was New York City's lowest November temperature since the mercury fell to 12° on November 27, 1932.

Select record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 22:
Albany: 8° (old record: 9°, 1969)
Allentown: 14° (old record: 15°, 2014)
Bangor: 5° (old record: 11°, 1978)
Binghamton: 3° (old record: 10°, 1989) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Bridgeport: 16° (old record: 18°, 1987) ***Tied November Record set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972***
Hartford: 9° (old record: 14°, 1969)
Islip: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987)
Manchester: 9° (old record: 12°, 1969)
Mount Washington: -26° (old record: -11° set in 1969 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -20°, 11/30/1958)***
New York City-JFK: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 19°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/21/1987)***
New York City-LGA: 19° (old record: 21°, 1987)
Newark: 17° (old record: 19°, 1987)
Portland: 6° (old record: 11°, 1888)
Poughkeepsie: 10° (old record: 14° set in 1972 and tied in 1984)
Providence: 15° (old record: 16° set in 1969 and tied in 1987)
Saranac Lake: -19° (old record: -2° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (Old monthly record: -14°, set 11/26/1938 and tied on 11/28/1951)***
Scranton: 9° (old record: 15° set in 1969 and tied in 1987 and 2014)
Worcester: 7° (old record: 11°, 1987)

Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 23:
Albany: 4° (old record: 5°, 1972)
Allentown: 11° (old record: 16°, 1964 and 2000)
Binghamton: 0° (old record: 12°, 1989 and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 3°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/22/2018)***
Bridgeport: 13° (old record: 16°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 16°, set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972 and 11/22/2018)***
Burlington: -1° (old record: 2°, 1888 and 1972)
Hartford: 5° (old record: 12°, 1972)
Mount Washington: -13° (tied record set in 1994)
New York City-JFK: 15° (old record: 25°, set in 1949 and tied in 1964, 1972, 2000, and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 18°, 11/22/2018)***
New York City-LGA: 17° (old record: 23°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1955***
Newark: 13° (old record: 21°, 1932)
Portland: 4° (old record: 7°, 1888 and 1978)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (old record: 9°, 1989)
Providence: 13° (old record: 14°, 1972)
Saranac Lake: -17° (old record: -11°, 1932)
Scranton: 5° (old record: 13°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 6°, set 11/29/1929 and tied on 11/26/1938)
Trenton: 13° (old record: 16°, 1880)
Westhampton: 6° (old record: 14°, 1964 and 2000) ***Broke November Record (old record: 9°, 11/24/2000)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 9°, 1929, 1972, and 1989)

Scene 3 featured a blizzard on November 25-26 that brought heavy snow from Kansas to the Great Lakes Region. That storm dumped 8.4" snow at Chicago and 11.7" at Rockford.

Scene 4 saw an inverted trough bring a localized 3"-6" snowfall (with some higher amounts) to a portion of New Jersey, including Atlantic City where 4.8" fell.

Scene 5 will star a major early December Lower Mid-Atlantic/Southeast snowstorm.

There had been a window of opportunity during the first two weeks of December. By the time that period ends, Scenes 4 and 5 will have been put into the weather records books.

That the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions will very likely miss out given the 500 mb pattern (which, in this case provided above normal lead time for the area at greatest risk of significant snow) does not mean that the potential did not exist. It did.

Act 2, courtesy of the onset of a positive EPO, variable Arctic Oscillation (including positive values), and the MJO's move into milder phases will be defined by a pause. Typically, such pauses last 2 and sometimes 3 weeks. Unlike some recent Decembers, it does not appear that this pause will see exceptional warmth. It will likely see above normal readings in the means.

Act 2 is not the closing Act of December, much less winter. Unlike such "non-winters" as 2011-12, the SSTAs in the Pacific favor a negative EPO. Those SSTAs are remarkably similar to those that were present during winter 2002-03. During that winter, the EPO went positive and remained predominantly positive into the first week of January. Afterward, it went negative and was largely negative through the remainder of what proved to be a very snowy meteorological winter.

Already, some of the guidance suggests an end to the positive EPO that will likely develop in coming days. Whether the EPO will go negative toward the end of the December or start of January remains to be seen, as there remains uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

Nevertheless, my guess has been and remains that the last week of December could feature a growing risk of wintry weather. First, the trough will begin to redevelop. The weekly guidance strongly suggests the development of a sustained trough in the East in the longer-term. As that happens, colder air will return and opportunities for snow will increase. The last week of December could be volatile as the pattern evolves toward a stable colder pattern--the kind of pattern that defined such winters as 1977-78, 2002-03, and 2009-10.

During that last week of December, I believe it is more likely than not that New York City will see accumulating snow. Waiting might be challenging, but I believe the patience will be rewarded so to speak. At present, there remains no meaningful indication that the promising start to Winter 2018-19 will end in heartbreak.

Overall, things remain on track for a very widespread winter with cold anomalies and greater than normal snowfall. The coming pause does not change things. It is part of a larger transition that will see the winter increasingly gain the attributes one has seen in past Central Pacific-based El Niño winters during which both Atlantic and Pacific blocking predominated.

Some temp records to add:

all of these cities saw their coldest November temperatures on record, earliest below zero temps, first time below zero temps occurred in November

Monticello -3

Mt Pocono -2

Syracuse -1

Sucks that Binghamton only got to 0, but 0 should be considered in the same category as the above, as it's not a single "digit."

Most of the above cities had their earliest negative temperature by about two weeks!  The deep snowcover helped attain that.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

More on the debate over 1983 precipitation for NYC... (recently discussed by a number of us including @bluewave and @uncle W)

After the initial values had been left undecided, there was a subsequent review in which it was decided to accept them.

The explanation I was sent in an e-mail that concerned this issue is as follows:

It was decided after that call [a teleconference concerning the issue] to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983.

In sum, the 1983 figure of 80.56" is the official record.

I remember that year as amazingly wet and even if the 80" figure is off, it was definitely above 70"

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, North and West said:

Honestly, not that I'm a fan of it from an excitement level, but it seems like we haven't had weather like this in a while; sustained cold and dry. I remember my dad mentioning that it was like this in 1976-1977; not sure if anyone can confirm those recollections.

I think it's good, too, from the aspect of allowing low-lying, flood-prone areas to dry out, and to help manage insect populations. 

Not exciting, but it's life.

Ask him about November-December 1989 thats what this reminds me of.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 1deg. BN.

Just a 35% chance of at least 2" of Snow during the next 15 days----GEFS.    EPS has had empty 10-day periods for 3 days now.

[North and West]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ask him about November-December 1989 thats what this reminds me of.

Sadly, I remember that one vividly, along with the warmth that crashed in on New Year's Eve. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember that year as amazingly wet and even if the 80" figure is off, it was definitely above 70"

It was. Based on the discussions here, I inquired about the final outcome so that we all would know what happened. I have confidence in the decision that was made, as the methodology for dealing with records/potential records is robust.