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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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4 hours ago, Doorman said:

can you dig it baby ????

that be a 988mb thing of beauty from the euro

late nite eye candy

hang in an hold on !!!

ecmwf_T850_us_7.thumb.png.18c2a977ac50c3c2d842020c63fc969b.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2018120500&fh=144

 

Accumulating snow barely gets to DC. Morning guidance is backing south.

Nice to see the Euro north but also looks warm but since theres no precip thats to be expected.

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Accumulating snow barely gets to DC. Morning guidance is backing south.

Nice to see the Euro north but also looks warm but since theres no precip thats to be expected.

Eps is north of the euro

This isn't over at all. Let's hope for a north trend starting today.

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah. Its definitely not over. If it does come north then we have to worry about the borderline airmass but I'll take my chances.

...thats my concern..even if if it makes it up here it could be rain.

 

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Today is actually the coldest morning during the first week of December for the 2010's around the area. It also looks like the first accumulating snowfall for portions of Southern and perhaps Central New Jersey during the first week of December back to 2010.

Lows for today

NYC....28....previous coldest 12/1-12/7 of 2010's....29 in 2012

EWR...24...28 in 2014

ISP.....22....24 in 2012

JFK....26.....29 in 2012

FOK....15....17 in 2012

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Courtesy of an inverted trough, Atlantic City was reporting light snow at 9 am. An area of heavier snow appeared to be developing over the waters near Litte Egg Harbor. Currently, the snow is falling somewhat to the south of where the modeling suggests the heaviest snows might fall. However, the area of snow will likely shift gradually northward this morning.

The 6z RGEM was particularly aggressive, showing a small area of 8" or more snow.

IVT12052018.jpg

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the Dec 5th EPS seasonal came in even colder for the winter than the Nov 5th run was showing.

New EPS seasonal data ran this morning. Hopefully you didn’t bite on the fluke warm run for Jan last month. New data is in and it’s much colder for the winter season. #natgas #energy #AGwx pic.twitter.com/DlWsavqW5N

Some one needs to pass this information on to the CFSv2. It's quite remarkable how unresponsive the CFSv2 is to the growing signs of a return to Atlantic and Pacific blocking later this month.

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Looks like most of Atlantic County is getting hammered, including AC.  Decent snows for far SE Burlington and the southern tip of Ocean and radar trends make it look like the precip shield is trying to move north.  We'll see.  I don't recall being under an inverted trough ever or at least not in the last 25-30 years in Middlesex County.  Anyone in the NB/Edison area recall a decent IT event?  

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like most of Atlantic County is getting hammered, including AC.  Decent snows for far SE Burlington and the southern tip of Ocean and radar trends make it look like the precip shield is trying to move north.  We'll see.  I don't recall being under an inverted trough ever or at least not in the last 25-30 years in Middlesex County.  Anyone in the NB/Edison area recall a decent IT event?  

 

We had one in March 2014 in M/C.  We got 6.

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