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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 9:04 PM, Rtd208 said:

Picked up 0.88" of rain so far today. 

Current temp 60

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Thanks.   I thought my thermometer was having a mid-life crisis as it approaches 60* now.     Fog and light rain here.     Could be mimicking the conditions we will have at the Ball Dropping!    Hey, if it is not raining I may hit the boardwalk here in CI which has become another NYE venue these last 5 years.      LED lights on the Parachute Jump is the pseudo ball drop.    Some rides actually open  for the evening,  weather and enough people expected, permitting.     Some fireworks too.     Last year only a ball drop in the near single digit atmosphere.   

I was in Times Square '74 into "75 with sleet, freezing drizzle going right through me for three hours in 33* air.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 10:07 PM, doncat said:

1.16" so far today...68.36" for the year. More rain to come Monday to finish off a very wet year...Wont beat my record from 2011 but did not have the single super month like the 21.55" total in Aug of that year, Also record number of days with measurable precip now at 162 compared to only 129 in 2011.

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Yeah, NYC has a record 157 days now with measurable precipitation in 2018. This beat the previous  record of 152 days set in 1996. But I am sure most in here would have been happier beating the 1995-1996 snowfall record instead.

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doncat

doncat

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 10:19 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC has a record 157 days now with measurable precipitation in 2018. This beat the previous #1 of 152 days set in 1996. But I am sure most in here would been happier beating the 1995-1996 snowfall record instead.

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With 40 years of record these are the monthly records I set this year...Feb highest temp 77 degrees ( Just missed warmest mean ) Also wettest at 6.66" ,  March highest snowfall 24.9",  April coldest at 47.7 degrees,  Nov coldest temp 13 degrees and wettest at 8.57"....Quite a few.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 10:34 PM, doncat said:

With 40 years of record these are the monthly records I set this year...Feb highest temp 77 degrees ( Just missed warmest mean ) Also wettest at 6.66" ,  March highest snowfall 24.9",  April coldest at 47.7 degrees,  Nov coldest temp 13 degrees and wettest at 8.57"....Quite a few.

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We can also add a 950 mb blizzard near the BM to the list. Still my favorite Euro 7 day control run of all-time. Let’s not forget the historic number of 75 degree dew point days at JFK. Along with the Long Island out of season October tornadoes and November snowstorm. This is certainly the most extreme weather and climate decade any of us have experienced.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 11:18 PM, Brasiluvsnow said:

A little more help guys if you can and in the best layman terms if possible = how does the MJO phasing in the Western Pacific effect us here on the East Coast ? I get that it went from p7 to p6 but how does the west coast effect us on the East ? Thanks in advance

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MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6.

The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The models may be ready to spit out a few exciting runs regarding 1/3.  I’m leaning towards us getting missed to the south if it ejects out early enough and is a snow event but if you’ve noticed this season the trend has been for big changes around day 5-6 with models locking onto tracks around Day 4 with not much change thereafter.  We saw that occur with these next two systems and may be seeing it now with 1/3.   I think if this is going to happen we will see some sort of big move towards it within the next 48 hours 

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TriPol

TriPol

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 11:31 PM, Snow88 said:

MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6.

The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east.

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Which comes first? Does the +SOI cause the MJO to get "stuck" or does the MJO being stuck cause the SOI? Further, what's causing this horrible +AO and +NAO?

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 11:38 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The models may be ready to spit out a few exciting runs regarding 1/3.  I’m leaning towards us getting missed to the south if it ejects out early enough and is a snow event but if you’ve noticed this season the trend has been for big changes around day 5-6 with models locking onto tracks around Day 4 with not much change thereafter.  We saw that occur with these next two systems and may be seeing it now with 1/3.   I think if this is going to happen we will see some sort of big move towards it within the next 48 hours 

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fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted
  On 12/28/2018 at 10:19 PM, WarrenCtyWx said:

I disagree. December 2015 was at least historically warm enough to be somewhat enjoyable. This December has just been a chilly, dreary mess.

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2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it.

 

This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow.

 

It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City.

I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long.

 

That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

 

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 12:29 AM, jfklganyc said:

2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it.

 

This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow.

 

It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City.

I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long.

 

That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

 

 

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Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17.

Good thing this is not a super nino. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 1:01 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17.

Good thing this is not a super nino. 

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97-98 had a ton of bad luck.  The overall pattern that winter may have been better than the recent super Niño 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 12:29 AM, jfklganyc said:

2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it.

 

This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow.

 

It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City.

I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long.

 

That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

 

 

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97-98 was a lot of coastals with no cold air to speak of. Wind driven rainstorms.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 1:25 AM, Rjay said:

Not sure if it was bad luck.  Tons of coastals with no cold air, super nino style. 

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The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was.   We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking.  

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 1:36 AM, dmillz25 said:

Yeah if it was like 5 degrees colder 97-98 would have been epic

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Thank you Rjay. Anyway, in response to dmillz post, the problem with 97-98 was the insanely positive EPO, which was caused as a result of the super El Niño we had in place back then. The NAM (AO/NAO) actually was good that winter, it was just that the Pacific ++EPO signal was so strong that it completely overwhelmed everything 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 1:32 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was.   We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking.  

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The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals 

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted
  On 12/29/2018 at 2:29 AM, Snow88 said:

NWS CPC

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation crossing into the Pacific in the next few days is forecast to help flip the Arctic Oscillation to its negative phase, leading to increased chances of cold air outbreaks over the eastern US in today's Weeks 3&4 outlook."

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There you have it. So stop worrying. Okay? I'm saying this to all of the people that are worried.

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