Toekneeweather Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Nam looks nice and wintry for Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:46 AM, Toekneeweather said: Nam looks nice and wintry for Monday night Expand ? ???? NAM only goes out 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:46 AM, Toekneeweather said: Nam looks nice and wintry for Monday night Expand For Inland areas and CT only. Rain storm for most on this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:59 AM, David-LI said: For Inland areas and CT only. Rain storm for most on this sub. Expand Yes but it’s been trending colder and slower thus more drier and suppressed. Probably a lot of white rain with this in this depiction and some sleet but it is trending colder and we’re still about 74 hrs away from the real show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Remmeber when this weekend was 50s and rain ? Now it shows upper 30s to low 40a with showers and a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 3:18 AM, Snow88 said: Remmeber when this weekend was 50s and rain ? Now it shows upper 30s to low 40a with showers and a mix. Expand really ? OVERNIGHT CLOUDY. PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FRIDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm confused Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 39. East wind around 8 mph. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Rain likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Rain, mainly before noon. High near 49. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph. Sunday A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/13/2018 at 9:19 PM, NycStormChaser said: Expand Very misleading. Mostly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 5:09 AM, Rjay said: Very misleading. Mostly sleet. Expand Mt Holly nws 3 am afd is calling for rain to snow Saturday night nnj & poconos. Mentions nam thermal profile over gfs. upton afd all rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is -3.0[37.3]. Should be Near Normal [38.7] by the 22nd. EPS is still No Snow for the next 10 days, and the GEFS is 40% chance of at least 4" by the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 5:09 AM, Rjay said: Very misleading. Mostly sleet. Expand I agree. Was only replying to Anthony's post yesterday when he mentioned that run since he didn't include the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Latest on the ENSO. Atmosphere still not coupled to the Pacific. Weak El Nino still coming. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml Temp. here just went past 50 at 11AM. 51 at 11:15AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 12z nam has alot of sleet for the area on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:51 PM, Snow88 said: 12z nam has alot of sleet for the area on Monday Expand Which area? The 12km is marginal up here concerning sleet, and downright torchy in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Our mid-December 50 is right on schedule. It actually feels good outside. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:51 PM, Snow88 said: 12z nam has alot of sleet for the area on Monday Expand its too warm through the entire column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The 12Z GFS suggests that we should keep an eye on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 5:36 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The 12Z GFS suggests that we should keep an eye on Christmas. Expand Keep an eye on the 21 and 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Still looks like inch plus rains coming, but it's more of a Sunday event now as opposed to the late tonight into tomorrow timing that it was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 500MB Pattern for Christmas, as of today: As an aside, does anyone have a list of major snow events that have occurred anyway, despite bad MJO/TELECONNECTION setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 December usually sucks in EL Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 12:14 PM, bluewave said: The GEFS has been doing much better than the EPS recently longer range. It’s showing the cool down after the solstice to near Christmas that we have all been expecting. But It does have a more Nina-like -PNA near the very end of the month. Since it’s so far out, it may not be accurate. We may just have to wait and see. The SOI is presently at a Niña-like levels reaching +21.69 today. 14 Dec 2018 1013.05 1005.15 21.69 3.69 0.72 13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 2.36 0.46 Expand Isn't a la nina better for snowstorms here in late December? Considering winters like 00-01 and 10-11 and what happened in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:23 PM, CIK62 said: Latest on the ENSO. Atmosphere still not coupled to the Pacific. Weak El Nino still coming. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml Temp. here just went past 50 at 11AM. 51 at 11:15AM Expand It would have been better for this area if it was moderate or stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 5:37 PM, Snow88 said: Keep an eye on the 21 and 23 Expand 21st is still too early, probably a rainstorm, look at 23rd and thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 12:48 AM, Snow88 said: December usually sucks in EL Nino winters. Expand except for winters like 02-03 and 09-10 Other things besides ENSO influence our winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 12:48 AM, Snow88 said: December usually sucks in EL Nino winters. Expand January and especially February don’t though. I expect February to be in a fury! A lot of snow and wind that month in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 1:15 AM, Toekneeweather said: January and especially February don’t though. I expect February to be in a fury! A lot of snow and wind that month in my opinion. Expand Period of greatest winter weather should be Jan 20 to Mar 20 like it was in 13-14 and 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 12:48 AM, Snow88 said: December usually sucks Expand Fixed it for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 On 12/15/2018 at 1:43 AM, Toekneeweather said: Expand did you draw that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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