December Discussion

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Between now and the end of December . They’ve been out there 

No one said that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Whats that got to do with punting the next 3 weeks? 

You seem overly confident on significant snows that last week of December.....the pattern is more favorable then, but its not that difficult to envision the rest of December being lackluster should that final week fail to produce like the first week to 10 days.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With fluffy pillows, soundscape music, and a nightlight....winter is saved from torching into the 50s, we sleep better now. 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seem overly confident on significant snows that last week of December.....the pattern is more favorable then, but its not that difficult to envision the rest of December being lackluster should that final week fail to produce like the first week.

I mean of course, you could say that about any given week time period ever. That could happen in your outlook as well.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gradient can mean pike south 

For rain vs snow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I mean of course, you could say that about any given week time period ever. That could happen in your outlook as well.

Of course...it already has..I thought we'd score some modest snows in early December.

All I'm saying is we really only have a week to play with in December because the next two weeks of December are unlikely to produce much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For rain vs snow?

Yea, within that context its pike points north.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s been calls of 7 days or more of 50 or higher . I don’t see how that is remotely possible 

Even if there were, it's not like most of us have a pack to protect. It's a nuisance at best and, as Ray has repeatedly pointed out, we start to score heading toward the new year.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course...it already has..I thought we'd score some modest snows in early December.

All I'm saying is we really only have a week to play with in December because the next two weeks of December are unlikely to produce much.

I don't trust op ens modeling post day 5 during a pattern reshuffle for specifics. Day to day situation. Warmer pattern but serviceable with the right timing and SWs. Very meh in the historical record of warm ups then we reset.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't trust op ens modeling post day 5 during a pattern reshuffle for specifics. Day to day situation. Warmer pattern but serviceable with the right timing and SWs. Very meh in the historical record of warm ups then we reset.

We're on the same page with respect to the big picture....December could have very easily had like 15-20" of snow already...tough break.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For rain vs snow?

See what just happened this past weekend for gradient south 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Even if there were, it's not like most of us have a pack to protect. It's a nuisance at best and, as Ray has repeatedly pointed out, we start to score heading toward the new year.

It looks like it begins in the days right before Cmas

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't trust op ens modeling post day 5 during a pattern reshuffle for specifics. Day to day situation. Warmer pattern but serviceable with the right timing and SWs. Very meh in the historical record of warm ups then we reset.

Compared to some pre-Xmas torches we've had recently, this one is tame. There was one year recently where it was almost 70 Christmas day and we were out on the deck drinking bloodies without so much as a shawl. 

[butterfish55]

28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

How's it looking for the Orlando area from 12/21 thru 12/27?   

Looks cool and rainy.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

See what just happened this past weekend for gradient south 

That isn't what they mean by "gradient", though....they are using it to imply that mid level warmth will be nearby to the south, so the thermal gradient will be compressed....aka SWFE.

[Hoth]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It looks like it begins in the days right before Cmas

Yeah, starts then. I'll give it a solid week to really consolidate.

[MarkO]

Gradient this year seems to be farther north, more like Concord/lakes region and nothing I see in the future changes that. Next weekends system is a vast improvement compared to what it was showing last week. GFS secondary now showing it finishing as some frozen, and ECMWF suppresses nearly the entire event. Baby steps.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Warmup is pretty much gone on most NWP. A couple days mild associated with the cutter next weekend but then back to a cooler flow and average temps before one shorter cold shot comes through with the chance of frozen setting the stage for what looks like a big PNA+ pattern for the holidays. Some of the holiday week data is downright heading into the freezer.

 

[512high]

Did the pope head down south? Haven't heard lately..... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Gradient this year seems to be farther north, more like Concord/lakes region and nothing I see in the future changes that. Next weekends system is a vast improvement compared to what it was showing last week. GFS secondary now showing it finishing as some frozen, and ECMWF suppresses nearly the entire event. Baby steps.

The mean baroclinic zone in a weak el nino season will change that. Anyway, I don't think it will be a "gradient" pattern for too long....as we move into January I think it will be more about just getting the storms.

[JBinStoughton]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gradient this year seems to be farther north, more like Concord/lakes region and nothing I see in the future changes that.

It’s still before mid Dec.  I don’t think “this year” holds much meaning yet.  

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

See what just happened this past weekend for gradient south 

So the way you would paraphrase it looks like another NC crusher.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

It’s still before mid Dec.  I don’t think “this year” holds much meaning yet.  

Right.

[Greg]

First I hear "Concord, NH North" gradient and then "South to North Carolina" gradient.  This tells me right away that since mid to late November "NO" true storm track or gradient pattern has been established yet.  Need to see a few more storms before that kind of talk can have merit.

[mreaves]

18 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

It’s still before mid Dec.  I don’t think “this year” holds much meaning yet.  

Stop trying to steal our snow 

[Ginx snewx]

what an epic way to cap off a widespread historical snow storm for Interior NC West Virginia and Virgina with ULL snows and a Norlun. Its dumping down there again with some spots picking up an additional 2-4 . 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

First I hear "Concord, NH North" gradient and then "South to North Carolina" gradient.  This tells me right away that since mid to late November "NO" true storm track or gradient pattern has been established yet.  Need to see a few more storms before that kind of talk can have merit.

It wouldn't matter anyway because the pattern going forward isn't necessarily the same. Wavelengths in November and early December will be different than later on. 

We're in El Niño so we're unlikely to see any sustained La Niña type gradient. 

[Greg]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't matter anyway because the pattern going forward isn't necessarily the same. Wavelengths in November and early December will be different than later on. 

We're in El Niño so we're unlikely to see any sustained La Niña type gradient. 

I'm on your side with this. I never anticipated a "LA Nina" type pattern/gradient.  I'm generally saying that in this weak "El Nino" pattern/gradient, none have realy been established yet or at least a majority of them.  Again, we need more storms to track to get a nice round number on that.

[MarkO]

Wasn't there some correlation between weak El Nino modoki and a more northern gradient?

NNE has far overperformed climo than southern and regardless of what happens here on out, past snowfall influences final tallies. Another important factor is how much elevation has affected snowfall totals. With a mild mid-December, I believe it increases that gradient. By end December, we're ~1/3 into the snowfall season.

 

Will, are you saying a La Nina pattern is more predictable? 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Wasn't there some correlation between weak El Nino modoki and a more northern gradient?

NNE has far overperformed climo than southern and regardless of what happens here on out, past snowfall influences final tallies. Another important factor is how much elevation has affected snowfall totals. With a mild mid-December, I believe it increases that gradient. By end December, we're ~1/3 into the snowfall season.

 

Will, are you saying a La Nina pattern is more predictable? 

I don't count "Mesoscale" features such as elevation.  It has too small of an area coverage.  What most are looking for/at is "Synopticscale" features.  The "Mean Storm Track" That is where the money will really be that delivers the goods wide spread. Again, as I had stated earlier, more storm tracks will help decide this.  Things like the baroclinicic zone set-up or where the north and south jet streams tend to interact, Miller A and Miller B storm tracks are paramount.