December Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry for the dumb question, but what would we be looking for on a 500mb plot to accurately identify a ridge pinching off into a block?

See the closed contours on the 500mb map north of Alaska. That is a block. This example is a pretty weak block but it will still provide more resistance than a ridge. It will sit there and spin for several days typically which means we will not lose our Arctic flow into Canada...notice how on the east side of that block you see the flow going straight down into Canada from the Arctic Ocean.  

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Will, looking at the guidance, there appears to be a prolonged -AO present in the next few weeks, but the NAO is neutral to positive and the PNA is neutral to negative.  The -AO could be the dominant feature in the next few weeks, this will help determine storm tracks and intensity of cold air masses present.  If the PV is west of Hudson Bay we are warm if it is near James Bay we are cold and snowy. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Will, looking at the guidance, there appears to be a prolonged -AO present in the next few weeks, but the NAO is neutral to positive and the PNA is neutral to negative.  The -AO could be the dominant feature in the next few weeks, this will help determine storm tracks and intensity of cold air masses present.  If the PV is west of Hudson Bay we are warm if it is near James Bay we are cold and snowy. 

I don't see it being overly dominant. It is forecasted to rise to only slightly negative over the next week or so. There will be a lot of other factors such as the EPO (which only shares limited domain space with the AO) and whether or not split flow develops out west and to what magnitude. Maybe we pop more of a -AO/-NAO at some point beyond next week but I'm not convinced right now it will be any time soon. But we shall see. I've been noticing a lot of spread on ensemble guidance. 

[weathafella]

EPS is a snowy run but looks like dogs”t by d15.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see it being overly dominant. It is forecasted to rise to only slightly negative over the next week or so. There will be a lot of other factors such as the EPO (which only shares limited domain space with the AO) and whether or not split flow develops out west and to what magnitude. Maybe we pop more of a -AO/-NAO at some point beyond next week but I'm not convinced right now it will be any time soon. But we shall see. I've been noticing a lot of spread on ensemble guidance. 

yes there is a ton of spread on the indices.  El Ninos favor a prolonged natural +PNA ridge out west, eventually that will set up the high stakes for snowstorms in Coastal SNE

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, weathafella said:

EPS is a snowy run but looks like dogs”t by d15.

I wouldn't look at ensembles past d10 in this setup being questionable lately

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I wouldn't look at ensembles past d10 in this setup being questionable lately

You mean...you havent looked at d15 gfs OP runs recently and called for snowstorms as a result? naaaaah.....

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS is a snowy run but looks like dogs”t by d15.

We'll keep an eye on the EPO. Cheer for the block to develop. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll keep an eye on the EPO. Cheer for the block to develop. 

We’re cheering. And if it must torch, hopefully it comes with some sun. I can’t take more gloom and doom rain days. Us coastal peeps missed the Nov snows unfortunately. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS is a snowy run but looks like dogs”t by d15.

Yea and the gefs continue the black hole.

[Damage In Tolland]

Much better looks and vibes today. We good 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We’re cheering. And if it must torch, hopefully it comes with some sun. I can’t take more gloom and doom rain days. Us coastal peeps missed the Nov snows unfortunately. 

I am losing my mind.  I would almost take a December torch if it meant bright sunny days but I know that is unlikely.  I can only guess we are probably at about 20% of possible sunshine the past 90 days.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much better looks and vibes today. We good 

The models are certainly not locked and even if we go AN for a few weeks the interior will still have shots at snow.

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much better looks and vibes today. We good 

Winter cancel, uncancel the pig will die.

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am losing my mind.  I would almost take a December torch if it meant bright sunny days but I know that is unlikely.  I can only guess we are probably at about 20% of possible sunshine the past 90 days.

Yesterday’s fog was the worst...either snow or be clear and dry...this has sucked

[DavisStraight]

Id rather get the warm up out of the way before Christmas and take off from there.

[weathafella]

I almost booked a flight to get above the clouds...lol.

[beavis1729]

All of the angst about December and the associated back-and-forth are just part of the life of a winter weather lover.  Logic and hope are not the same thing...and I'm guilty of it all the time in the Lakes/OV forum.

As an example - we just received 8" of picturesque wet snow a couple of days ago, and will drop to near 10F tonight with most of that snow cover still intact.  But it's supposed to rain this weekend with highs in the 40s.  Everyone seems to accept it and say that it's still early December, so rain isn't too surprising...but it's like all of that effort is wasted on the beautiful snow storm from a few days ago.  Just maddening...

Ironically enough, we could go all of December without seeing one flake of snow, and still be at about normal-to-date snowfall on Dec 31st.  That doesn't mean I should be happy about it...it just means that our snowfall climo is crap.  I always say that, if we had a climo winter, it would get a grade of D-.  My expectations and hopes are always higher than climo, because climo winters are horrendous in the NW suburbs of Chicago. 40" of average annual snowfall...and no period of consistent snow cover can be counted on, even in the heart of winter (mid-Dec to mid-Feb).  Normals of 30F/15F in Jan mean that a day with a high of 20F (which seems like a typical cold winter day to me) is balanced by a day with a high of 40F...which is definitely not wintry at all.  And of course Dec and Feb are even worse when it comes to temps. 

Someday I plan to move to northern WI or the UP of Michigan, where winter is not so fleeting.

It's just the life of someone who loves winter...like DIT and all of the others here.  Just part of the deal. 

I always enjoy the winter discussions in this sub-forum...keep it up.

[dendrite]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much better looks and vibes today. We good 

Vanna Wood...it's your spin. And no, you cannot buy a winter.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Fun game.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

All of the angst about December and the associated back-and-forth are just part of the life of a winter weather lover.  Logic and hope are not the same thing...and I'm guilty of it all the time in the Lakes/OV forum.

As an example - we just received 8" of picturesque wet snow a couple of days ago, and will drop to near 10F tonight with most of that snow cover still intact.  But it's supposed to rain this weekend with highs in the 40s.  Everyone seems to accept it and say that it's still early December, so rain isn't too surprising...but it's like all of that effort is wasted on the beautiful snow storm from a few days ago.  Just maddening...

Ironically enough, we could go all of December without seeing one flake of snow, and still be at about normal-to-date snowfall on Dec 31st.  That doesn't mean I should be happy about it...it just means that our snowfall climo is crap.  I always say that, if we had a climo winter, it would get a grade of D-.  My expectations and hopes are always higher than climo, because climo winters are horrendous in the NW suburbs of Chicago. 40" of average annual snowfall...and no period of consistent snow cover can be counted on, even in the heart of winter (mid-Dec to mid-Feb).  Normals of 30F/15F in Jan mean that a day with a high of 20F (which seems like a typical cold winter day to me) is balanced by a day with a high of 40F...which is definitely not wintry at all.  And of course Dec and Feb are even worse when it comes to temps. 

Someday I plan to move to northern WI or the UP of Michigan, where winter is not so fleeting.

It's just the life of someone who loves winter...like DIT and all of the others here.  Just part of the deal. 

I always enjoy the winter discussions in this sub-forum...keep it up.

Oh ..this is a support group, period.

Really, may as well meet on Tuesday nights from 7 to 9 pm, where people raise their hands and discuss their addiction.  Truth be told, there are strict forums out there where the contribution is purely analytic/theoretical, and is borderline referee-able right out of the type. The climate in those is about as chilly as the collective here wishes the winter is... Content changes relatively infrequently, with gaps in participation extending weeks at a time. And much of it is unreadably dry

We are not that, here. 

By the way ..the 18z GFS is remarkably cool profiled for that deal next week, particularly when factoring in it's whopper BL warm bias - speaking to the NE forum folk.  That's a flat wave snow if ever there was one modeled... But, it just one run.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Go back to New Jersey....most ridiculous post I've seen in a long time...and you post it on November 27th????   

I feel it's best to get the panic out of the way before winter actually starts. 

December is such a crapshoot anyway in a Nino. If there's a couple of snow events then it's a huge win but I expect 90% of snows will fall from Jan-Feb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

People just need to chill.....we are going to have a mild spell, and December will not be stellar, but winter is not canceled, either. Never was, nor will it be this season.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

42 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

All of the angst about December and the associated back-and-forth are just part of the life of a winter weather lover.  Logic and hope are not the same thing...and I'm guilty of it all the time in the Lakes/OV forum.

As an example - we just received 8" of picturesque wet snow a couple of days ago, and will drop to near 10F tonight with most of that snow cover still intact.  But it's supposed to rain this weekend with highs in the 40s.  Everyone seems to accept it and say that it's still early December, so rain isn't too surprising...but it's like all of that effort is wasted on the beautiful snow storm from a few days ago.  Just maddening...

Ironically enough, we could go all of December without seeing one flake of snow, and still be at about normal-to-date snowfall on Dec 31st.  That doesn't mean I should be happy about it...it just means that our snowfall climo is crap.  I always say that, if we had a climo winter, it would get a grade of D-.  My expectations and hopes are always higher than climo, because climo winters are horrendous in the NW suburbs of Chicago. 40" of average annual snowfall...and no period of consistent snow cover can be counted on, even in the heart of winter (mid-Dec to mid-Feb).  Normals of 30F/15F in Jan mean that a day with a high of 20F (which seems like a typical cold winter day to me) is balanced by a day with a high of 40F...which is definitely not wintry at all.  And of course Dec and Feb are even worse when it comes to temps. 

Someday I plan to move to northern WI or the UP of Michigan, where winter is not so fleeting.

It's just the life of someone who loves winter...like DIT and all of the others here.  Just part of the deal. 

I always enjoy the winter discussions in this sub-forum...keep it up.

Look you think your winter is bad, my average snowfall is between 30-35" of snow and I live in New England, on the coast, but nevertheless, we get plenty of good winters mixed with extremely poor winters.  One winter it was either 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 where we were supposed to get a powerful winter storm, we had warnings out and everything for over 15" of snow, the next day the warning was dropped at noon and we had 2" of pathetic snow.  That winter was blamed for being extremely cold too cold because the cold was over us and the storm track was out to sea.  We get winters with 0" of snow, just because climate says otherwise, doesn't make it fact.  We have had winters with almost 100" of snow, I have had three or four winters in my lifetime over 40", the rest either less than that or way less near 10".  Recently it has been around average or slightly above average.  But you know why I love living on Cape Cod?  Because simply the weather is definitely much more extreme than anywhere else, other than the top of mountains, like MT Washington, New Hampshire.  We are very extreme for just above sea level.  I love living on Cape Cod during the winter because we always have the potential to have wicked nor'easters and blizzards that produce hurricane-force winds.  When you are an area that doesn't receive much snow on average it becomes disappointing, but when you get the big dog storm, it makes it all worth it.  Harwich, MA has had two 30" all-time blizzards in the last thirteen years, Boston hasn't had a storm officially over 27.5"

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

The next few weeks and early December will be ruled by where the Polar Vortex sets up in Central Canada.  With the NAO heading neutral and the PNA neutral to negative with hints it may head positive again in two weeks time, the -AO polar vortex will be the weather maker in its own right for the New England region.  If it sets up in James Bay, we get winter storms with snow on the coast, if she sets up over Hudson Bay and points west the Great Lakes will have fun.  Let's hope she sets up east.

[weathafella]

Looks like an improvement on the 18z GEFS.  Epo trying?  Meanwhile another snowy ensembles run.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I was checking out Environment Canada to see how this storm will effect the Maritimes.  The Canadians have this beauty for a warning, which I strongly suggest we adopt:

Wreckhouse wind warning in effect for:

• Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Very strong wind gusts are expected or occurring

Strong easterly winds are expected to develop this evening with gusts increasing to 100 km/h late overnight tonight and to 120 km/h on Wednesday.

Gusts will further intensify to 140 km/h Wednesday evening before diminishing somewhat as winds become northeasterly, with gusts to 100 km/h persisting into Thursday from this direction.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds. Drivers may lose control of their vehicles; tall vehicles are at risk of being overturned.

Wreckhouse wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I was checking out Environment Canada to see how this storm will effect the Maritimes.  The Canadians have this beauty for a warning, which I strongly suggest we adopt:

Wreckhouse wind warning in effect for:

• Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Very strong wind gusts are expected or occurring

Strong easterly winds are expected to develop this evening with gusts increasing to 100 km/h late overnight tonight and to 120 km/h on Wednesday.

Gusts will further intensify to 140 km/h Wednesday evening before diminishing somewhat as winds become northeasterly, with gusts to 100 km/h persisting into Thursday from this direction.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds. Drivers may lose control of their vehicles; tall vehicles are at risk of being overturned.

Wreckhouse wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

It's a windy place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wreckhouse,_Newfoundland_and_Labrador

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Looks like an improvement on the 18z GEFS.  Epo trying?  Meanwhile another snowy ensembles run.

We are going to start seeing marked improvements for Dec. They just started today . You can see how and why it’s happening despite Dendy’s claims to the contrary 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18z GEFS mean is cold for two coastal storms the next ten to twelve days, below normal 850mb temps for a long stretch with the warm anomalies pushed back until 12th of DEC.