December Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ACATT?

Charmer of chill?

Necromancer of negatives?

Wizard of windex?

Soothsayer of Siberia?

I can't discuss with you anything anymore its like you have become the class clown. IDK stick to instrument talk I guess but ha ha maybe? IDK kind of sucks

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Favorite week of Jan 20th to 25th is golden. I like your thinking. I think the 1st to the 5th or so is also a time to look at. The hemisphere is loading up, get us through the upcoming boring period and ramp it up.

I think I did Jan 1-15 and March 1-15 least season.

I think two weeks is just right...shorter is too specific given several months lead, and anything longer offers diminished utility for the reader to have a range spanning most of winter.

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we don’t live there 

Oh but we do...and you may escape with a 51.  What a win...

[ORH_wxman]

Mild up is going to likely last to at least 12/22 or so and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes right through Christmas. 

This doesn't look like a December 2006 or December 2015...so no need for the weenies to totally freak out. But def going to skew above normal. As can be seen on some of the clown range runs, we can still get snow events in those types of patterns. Also look historically to the final 3 weeks of December 2002. That was an above average regime but we scored some good interior events (the coast even cashed in during 2nd half of Xmas storm). 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Huge high over the Atlantic and a low over se Canada...classic.

Just begging for a  positive cold-dry-whiff/warm-wet oscillation.

Ha ha.  That synoptic overview perfectly describes pretty much the decade of the 1980's. 

Not every year in that decade, or every pattern therein, no. But that sort of penetrating assault, at times as though designed specifically to abuse the already wounded winter enthusiasts ... was unrelentingly repeating.  It really was like the weather was trying to stop people from being weather people. 

"Okay, 10 F today ... Sooooo... that means it just has to be 30 F tomorrow... ten minutes of sleet Thursday morning ... 1.4" inches of strait 40 F rain by Thursday night... and tick tock 10 F Friday morning, with 38 mph gusts... and like it"   Didn't even watch The Weather Channel.  No need. 

Hyperbole of course.. but, that was the first era in my life that I came to frustrate that behavior ... like all the time!  I think it's endemic to New England ... We just haven't suffered a season stolen by that antic in recent ...well, decades really.  It does seem to happen ...sort of, on a single even or two, here and there, erratic... But, that description is not near the same thing as the 1980's. Clearly, a globular directed pattern persistency.

Early life spent in southern Lower Michigan, I don't ever recall that even happening (though if may have...I dunno - once?)  The cold concreted Earth I swear was harder than the streets them selves in between the 34F rains ... only to re solidify if dirt even thawed in the first place.  ... Over and over and over again. I just sort of realized along the way at some point in time, "It seems like it's always doing that here." 

 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can't discuss with you anything anymore its like you have become the class clown. IDK stick to instrument talk I guess but ha ha maybe? IDK kind of sucks

What do they have you on for meds?

I thought I was pretty serious and clear in my original post to you. You’re not going to find a torch day 2 weeks out since the deets get blurred, but would you really be shocked by a 60° in SNE? 

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did think that this event may trend enough to give us some snow, but I'm not surprised that we aren't getting crushed....I don't, nor have I ever expected a banner month of December, and the window for sne juggernaut snows is 1/20 to 2/20 imo. I don't doubt a juggernaut storm mid month, but I'll bet against a SNE HECS, which is always the prudent course of action, anyway, but you know what I mean.

I still think we pull off at least a couple of moderate snowfall events this month for the majority of sne.

The EURO seasonal was posted in another forum. Jan and Feb look amazing. March looks good. 

[LurkerBoy]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the read may be a little above your ability for reading and understanding the words ...   i dunno, but if you really need the simpleton version...

you no snow dec 9

maybe sumpin to watch mid month. 

Honestly, a better, more concise read ^ 

If you can synthesize the ideas into those dumb sentences, why the need to write essays sourced mostly from thesaurus.com?

 

 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EURO seasonal was posted in another forum. Jan and Feb look amazing. March looks good. 

It was cold for Dec too, but the run before that had a warm Dec. As always, buyer beware. Hopefully it’s right. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the read may be a little above your ability for reading and understanding the words ...   i dunno, but if you really need the simpleton version...

you no snow dec 9

maybe sumpin to watch mid month. 

 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Honestly, a better, more concise read ^ 

If you can synthesize the ideas into those dumb sentences, why the need to write essays sourced mostly from thesaurus.com?

 

 

He’s a good writer and a knowledgeable met.  Deal with it.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He’s a good writer and a knowledgeable met.  Deal with it.

lol at a weenie making fun of John’s vocab while using the words “prose” and “synthesize”. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was cold for Dec too, but the run before that had a warm Dec. As always, buyer beware. Hopefully it’s right. 

At least a cold Jan/Feb fits El Niño climo better than a cold December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least a cold Jan/Feb fits El Niño climo better than a cold December. 

Beat me to it, but I know what he means...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol at a weenie making fun of John’s vocab while using the words “prose” and “synthesize”. 

Most weenies in here are like Santa’s Little Helper on The Simpson’s. They hear what they want to hear. Ruff ruff ruff ruff torch ruff ruff ruff ruff cold ruff ruff ruff ruff snow. 

[CoastalWx]

Anyways a 2 week relaxation period give or take has been well advertised. Time to drink until Christmas.

[Lava Rock]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mild up is going to likely last to at least 12/22 or so and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes right through Christmas. 

This doesn't look like a December 2006 or December 2015...so no need for the weenies to totally freak out. But def going to skew above normal. As can be seen on some of the clown range runs, we can still get snow events in those types of patterns. Also look historically to the final 3 weeks of December 2002. That was an above average regime but we scored some good interior events (the coast even cashed in during 2nd half of Xmas storm). 

awesome. Love a brown xmas.

[dryslot]

Close the shade

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

awesome. Love a brown xmas.

Sounds like you didn't read the rest of the post. 

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sounds like you didn't read the rest of the post. 

nope. I read the worse part, but went back and saw the chances for some snow, so fingers crossed. Mother nature blew her load too early

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are going to have events between now an xmas....some of the posters in here have borderline tendencies in that its all or nothing.

We may still have a grinch, but it is what it is.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sounds like you didn't read the rest of the post. 

Ruff ruff ruff ruff brown Christmas.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are going to have events between now an xmas....some of the posters in here have borderline tendencies in that its all or nothing.

Most also tend to hate uncertainty. They want a call...snow or no snow? It's beyond the ability of any met to say for certain...maybe if it was a December 2015 we could say with close to certainty we wouldn't get snow in a 1-2 week period but that is an extreme example. The current progged pattern is not that extreme. It even has a bit of blockiness in Canada which can help produce events in a marginal airmass. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you are a dedicated skier you really really need to find an excuse to ski Mid week next week somewhere in NNE especially NVT. If you love light light powder over firm groomed surfaces all the while ski down ski on lifts, go for it man or woman

BTV gone wild...localized 8-10" Mansfield to Jay?  Snowing good now but need to get into the lake streamers.

Expect occasional lake effect snow showers thru tonight with rapidly changing sfc vis and road conditions in the heaviest snow shower activity. Also, the central and northern Green Mountains of VT from Mt Abraham to Mansfield to Jay Peak will receive 2 to 6 inches with localized 8 to 10 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak by midday Friday. A sharp snowfall gradient from the CPV to the mountains is anticipated and areal coverage of snowfall >4 inches will be limited, along with impacts, therefore no advisory necessary.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sounds like you didn't read the rest of the post. 

With MPM living close by the eyeore factor is very high in lower Maine.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Beat me to it, but I know what he means...

Yeah I’m just talking in general terms and not even directly to Easton. Flip floppin monthlies don’t really move me in any way. I think a lot of you guys have a good handle on the LR no matter what they show. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Most also tend to hate uncertainty. They want a call...snow or no snow? It's beyond the ability of any met to say for certain...maybe if it was a December 2015 we could say with close to certainty we wouldn't get snow in a 1-2 week period but that is am extreme example. The current proffer pattern is not that extreme. It even has a bit of blockiness in Canada which can help produce events in a marginal airmass. 

I will be very surprised if beyond I 495 doesn't see a decent event before then....coast will be more difficult. Its like December climo for storm chances.

[512high]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV gone wild...localized 8-10" Mansfield to Jay?  Snowing good now but need to get into the lake streamers.

Expect occasional lake effect snow showers thru tonight with rapidly changing sfc vis and road conditions in the heaviest snow shower activity. Also, the central and northern Green Mountains of VT from Mt Abraham to Mansfield to Jay Peak will receive 2 to 6 inches with localized 8 to 10 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak by midday Friday. A sharp snowfall gradient from the CPV to the mountains is anticipated and areal coverage of snowfall >4 inches will be limited, along with impacts, therefore no advisory necessary.

lol rub it in! people are ready to jump ship south or you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

lol rub it in! people are ready to jump ship south or you!

He can have the 8-10" ers....I'd rather take the 2'ers when they come.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Will it is safe to say the only chance this thing has of coming north even into the northern midatlantic is if that Canadian shortwave can dive enough into the backside of that deep trough to tighten up the flow on the eastern side and send it further north than currently progged. I guess that and the NE confluence moves further NE/lessens? Is that pretty much the deal and what are the chances of seeing any of that?