December Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

Locked in, get the web Cam up Scoots

[Ginx snewx]

Interested at LR for sure, lets get some - NAO magic

[Randy4Confluence]

Man what an ugly one-eyed warhog from hell of a pattern this month. 

Much better here ( N. CA ) this month with rain and cooler temps. Even SoCal's picking up some good rains this month. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Yep. 11-15 says the mild up is not just a 4-6 day event. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. 11-15 says the mild up is not just a 4-6 day event. 

mild up to normal over a 5 day period. meh

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s not a torch . Couple days of 40’s and maybe a screamer 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a torch . Couple days of 40’s and maybe a screamer 

 

We can work on that screamer, I see alternatives

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Locked in, get the web Cam up Scoots

How's Boone looking for next week?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

How's Boone looking for next week?

IDK its on that chart, you headed there?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Post 12/25

Maybe but the pattern after next weekend gets better .

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

IDK its on that chart, you headed there?

nah

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure how the tenor is leaning this morning ... but personally, I was particularly interested in these recent overnight model cycles - and have been since Sunday, actually. At that time, the day 4 was depicting the southern component wave mechanics as just entering the more physical soundings, and any amplitude starvation then might then get goosed.  

That appears to have come, registered, and set sail..    

Other's have observed and noted over the last two days that data sparseness at high latitudes would be problematic ... as out in time, any baroclinicity in the deep south/SE would be available ...should those northern sources deliver (supposedly..) the mechanics.  Not sure what those thoughts are/how they are basing them ... but my experience over of the years, the N-pole juggernaut correction scenario is more common in science fiction.    

I don't get the 'feel' that's in the cards here.  And with the southern component features of interest now being sampled, they don't appear to be sniffing out 'strong enough'  mechanics to do it on their own.  Therefore, barring (what I believe would need to be) seemingly almost miraculously arriving factor ...like, pretty much changing the entire circulation construct of this Hemispheric quadrature ... (a.k.a., highly unlikely) ... folding on that Dec 9/10 deal is a safe enough bet. Bluff called... Hey, the upshot?  I win either way... I don't give a schit about being wrong, and if it snows somehow, I'm happy just the same  

*****

There is a new signal.  Many are likely already aware.  Some others will likely be inclined to chide, given that they are presently jilted by excruciating obsession on fruitless phantom ... and can't wait to pounce.  However, maintaining some semblance of objectivity (because... what else have you got?), the PNA at both the CDC and CPC do offer a mass-field correction suggestion out there closer to mid month.. 

There's no way in the imaginary realms of sanity to even begin to speculate on details ... either way, the general canvas of overly active weather ... being Gatlyn gunned through the mid latitudes over N/A doesn't actually appear to be a pattern we've escaped from ...despite the present lull in activity that's being modeled (save for the S) - and this ending parathetical counts, too!   

[HoarfrostHubb]

We can still get events in even a slightly AN pattern.  We just need to gin em up.

We abide in the meantime.  What a great look for Appalachia 

[LurkerBoy]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. 11-15 says the mild up is not just a 4-6 day event. 

What’s your hunch? Back half of the month +5?

[LurkerBoy]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure how the tenor is leaning this morning ... but personally, I was particularly interested in these recent overnight model cycles - and have been since Sunday, actually. At that time, the day 4 was depicting the southern component wave mechanics as just entering the more physical soundings, and any amplitude starvation then might then get goosed.  

That appears to have come, registered, and set sail..    

Other's have observed and noted over the last two days that data sparseness at high latitudes would be problematic ... as out in time, any baroclinicity in the deep south/SE would be available ...should those northern sources deliver (supposedly..) the mechanics.  Not sure what those thoughts are/how they are basing them ... but my experience over of the years, the N-pole juggernaut correction scenario is more common in science fiction.    

I don't get the 'feel' that's in the cards here.  And with the southern component features of interest now being sampled, they don't appear to be sniffing out 'strong enough'  mechanics to do it on their own.  Therefore, barring (what I believe would need to be) seemingly almost miraculously arriving factor ...like, pretty much changing the entire circulation construct of this Hemispheric quadrature ... (a.k.a., highly unlikely) ... folding on that Dec 9/10 deal is a safe enough bet. Bluff called... Hey, the upshot?  I win either way... I don't give a schit about being wrong, and if it snows somehow, I'm happy just the same  

*****

There is a new signal.  Many are likely already aware.  Some others will likely be inclined to chide, given that they are presently jilted by excruciating obsession on fruitless phantom ... and can't wait to pounce.  However, maintaining some semblance of objectivity (because... what else have you got?), the PNA at both the CDC and CPC do offer a mass-field correction suggestion out there closer to mid month.. 

There's no way in the imaginary realms of sanity to even begin to speculate on details ... either way, the general canvas of overly active weather ... being Gatlyn gunned through the mid latitudes over N/A doesn't actually appear to be a pattern we've escaped from ...despite the present lull in activity that's being modeled (save for the S) - and this ending parathetical counts, too!   

I literally cannot parse any information from this, as usual. The most masturbatory prose I’ve ever read

[weathafella]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not a torch . Couple days of 40’s and maybe a screamer 

 

Maybe but don’t be surprised if we squeeze in a few DSD 55+ days.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Maybe but don’t be surprised if we squeeze in a few DSD 55+ days.

I don't see anything suggesting that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I literally cannot parse any information from this, as usual. The most masturbatory prose I’ve ever read

Dec 9-10 is about dead, but we have a new threat mid month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I did think that this event may trend enough to give us some snow, but I'm not surprised that we aren't getting crushed....I don't, nor have I ever expected a banner month of December, and the window for sne juggernaut snows is 1/20 to 2/20 imo. I don't doubt a juggernaut storm mid month, but I'll bet against a SNE HECS, which is always the prudent course of action, anyway, but you know what I mean.

I still think we pull off at least a couple of moderate snowfall events this month for the majority of sne.

[Ginx snewx]

If you are a dedicated skier you really really need to find an excuse to ski Mid week next week somewhere in NNE especially NVT. If you love light light powder over firm groomed surfaces all the while ski down ski on lifts, go for it man or woman

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't see anything suggesting that 

meh...with no snow cover it doesn't take much of a warm look to pull off a torch day here and there. SE MA just pulled off 60F+ amidst a colder regime. We should all know how it works by now. Don't try to prove me wrong with 360hr EPS 2m temps at 8B0 either.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Maybe but don’t be surprised if we squeeze in a few DSD 55+ days.

Glad we don’t live there 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I literally cannot parse any information from this, as usual. The most masturbatory prose I’ve ever read

Lol....I'm with ya.  Sometimes I wish that very smart guy would just speak some normal english...

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did think that this event may trend enough to give us some snow, but I'm not surprised that we aren't getting crushed....I don't expect a banner month of December, and the window for sne juggernaut snows is 1/20 to 2/20 imo. I don't doubt a juggernaut storm mid month, but I'll bet against a SNE HECS, which is always the prudent course of action, anyway, but you know what I mean.

I still think we pull off at least a couple of moderate snowfall events this month for the majority of sne.

totally agree with this although from Christmas on is open for Juggernauts, Dec 22nd and Jan 1st are on my radar

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

meh...with no snow cover it doesn't take much of a warm look to pull off a torch day here and there. SE MA just pulled off 60F+ amidst a colder regime. We should all know how it works by now. Don't try to prove me wrong with 360hr EPS 2m temps at 8B0 either.

I will not but perhaps you can review how Ema got to 60 and the source region of that air, tropical connections are closed, gulf is closed (sans the 15th storm) not buying it

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol....I'm with ya.  Sometimes I wish that very smart guy would just speak some normal english...

the read may be a little above your ability for reading and understanding the words ...   i dunno, but if you really need the simpleton version...

you no snow dec 9

maybe sumpin to watch mid month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

totally agree with this although from Christmas on is open for Juggernauts, Dec 22nd and Jan 1st are on my radar

I'm not saying that xmas is hostile...but the way that I do my outlooks is to select one to two two week periods that are most favorable for a sne juggernaut. I have two adjoining two week periods this season....1/20-2/20.

Two 20"+ events over a relatively large area imho.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I will not but perhaps you can review how Ema got to 60 and the source region of that air, tropical connections are closed, gulf is closed (sans the 15th storm) not buying it

ACATT?

Charmer of chill?

Necromancer of negatives?

Wizard of windex?

Soothsayer of Siberia?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see one occurring earlier than my window if this SSW comes to fruition...I was all over the mid season SSW last year, which led to epic March, but I did not expect one this year.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not saying that xmas is hostile...but the way that I do my outlooks is to select one to two two week periods that are most favorable for a sne juggernaut. I have two adjoining two week periods this season....1/20-2/20.

Two 20"+ events over a relatively large area imho.

 Favorite week of Jan 20th to 25th is golden. I like your thinking. I think the 1st to the 5th or so is also a time to look at. The hemisphere is loading up, get us through the upcoming boring period and ramp it up.