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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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Mt Holly says don't give up just yet

"The 12z ECMWF
and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it
progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.
With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture."

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Steve trolling snowless folks here....Leo honking....what the blue fuk is going on here?

LOL you would think its March 30th with some of these folks. Wishing and weenying their will to get a storm up the coast, its Modoki Nino it won't miss, they always trend North, poor sampling of shortwaves....

 

When the Euro locks, put it to bed for now. 

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Steve: My point is, that whole region north of arctic circle is pretty bad. Chris gave some good reasons why. 

I don't quite buy the sampling stuff with all the satellite data that the Euro assimilates, only area I would say is suspect is the Arctic with all the cold reflectivities as Will pointed out.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Steve: My point is, that whole region north of arctic circle is pretty bad. Chris gave some good reasons why. 

I don't quite buy the sampling stuff with all the satellite data that the Euro assimilates, only area I would say is suspect is the Arctic with all the cold reflectivities as Will pointed out.

Well lets hope its blowing chunks up there because nothing in the modeling world indicates this turns the corner. We are inside day 5 now 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

  A miss is obviously favored, but writing this off is silly at this juncture.

Fact, not opinion.

I don't think we are going to have a blizzard, but a seasoned vet like you should know better.

IDK not seeing anything myself but we follow like we always do, Save a horse

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Besides I’ve been talking about relaxation. Just would have been nice to grab a little before we mild up. Other than the possible cutter, doesn’t look torchy. Might even still get interior snow.

The 18z GFS has turned that cutter into a coastal on d10, 966mb.

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