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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Listen man things change quickly, its so far out. That Scooter sh it confluence in Canada is killing us, is it overdone on modeling?, maybe but maybe not. I wouldn't fret anything outside of 3-5 days in winter especially. I just don't but the its gonna come north arguements because of nino state or because they always do. As it stands not looking good with snow probs above 1 inch on the EPS below 20% through day 10

They always are low. It’s coming and it’s a no doubter. Again not a bomb.. but a nice 4-8” er

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

They always are low. It’s coming and it’s a no doubter. Again not a bomb.. but a nice 4-8” er

Best of luck, hopefully it works out, if it doesn't there is always another on the horizon, not feeling it yet thats all. Maybe by the weekend I will,who knows. One thing for certain the peanut gallery will always be there to say something about someone

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5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

funny DT story, I think it's late 2000, maybe the millennial storm. debates were getting heated on model runs, southern snows etc. DT doesn't know me from Adam but we are bantering. The phone rings at my office at Merrill Lynch, Mike it's Dave Tolleris I just don't see this thing hitting the northeast...blah blah. I couldn't believe the guy somehow tracked me down and called me lol

 

That’s a good one!  How did he track you down!  I think I may have had my wife take a picture of me standing in snow in my yard with a sign “this look like rain Dave?”

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They always are low. It’s coming and it’s a no doubter. Again not a bomb.. but a nice 4-8” er

I doubt it’s big north of nyc too but this idea it’s all s jet when there’s a number of complicated sw’s in the flow, too early to say ‘next’. Strange to hear it from captain optimism.

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As much as I love the idea of a good storm I could do without it next week. How it's easy to forget there are still people up here in Andover/Lawrence without there heat turned back on from the gas explosions. I imagine any storm is just going to be a set back for them completing the work.

Hopefully the mountains get in on some action later in December because they got a good base up there. Riding conditions on Saturday were phenomenal and I don't think I ever left the trees. We can score here later in the season.

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17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a good one!  How did he track you down!  I think I may have had my wife take a picture of me standing in snow in my yard with a sign “this look like rain Dave?”

Jerry to this day I have no idea. And this was pretty early internet, pre social media etc. Somehow he looked me up or something, it's a great mystery. Funny conversation though, the guy has passion I'll give him that. I miss it too, he knows his stuff but swings and misses like everyone. His are legend though because of the bulletin board debates and rants surrounding them, classic stuff.

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29 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

funny DT story, I think it's late 2000, maybe the millennial storm. debates were getting heated on model runs, southern snows etc. DT doesn't know me from Adam but we are bantering. The phone rings at my office at Merrill Lynch, Mike it's Dave Tolleris I just don't see this thing hitting the northeast...blah blah. I couldn't believe the guy somehow tracked me down and called me lol

 

Did it hit the northeast?

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These don’t always come north, we only remember the ones that come north, for obvious reasons.

Its a complicated look, and that means we could see big changes at short leads. This “event” if and when it reaches us is about a week away.

Its not a great look currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out a bit better, or at least grazes south and east area with some snow.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Keep steering the ship northward, see if you can pull it in.  No doubter made me chuckle though, you've got a special gift.

Lol... I must admit, I do like the bargaining aspect. Like maybe if I’m not greedy and only call for a moderate 4-8” event, it’ll come north and work out.

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BTW, I mostly lurk in NYC and NE thread, especially with a place in Stratton now. But I miss those days of one merged thread with DT, Jerry, Ji, Anthony in NYC, Scott, Jeb all the heavy hitters. Classic stuff and some great meltdowns lol.

As an aside here is a pic from the front porch of the cabin this weekend.

higg.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

<GEM> stop there. Peeps are crazy, Euro has been locked in on the MA SE with a NC MYT jack. All STJ, it happens

You took that quote out of context. My point was that the GEM has been inconsistent.

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nino Schmino, it doesn't matter, press a HP down into the MA, throw in a juiced STJ. I don't care what the Nino state is. Next

Nothing is absolute, but implying that el nino should not be taken into consideration when speculating on the preferred storm evolution is silly. Obviously there is a point when you toss it out the window, but day 7 isn't it.

I don't expect a huge event out of this, but I don't think it ends up as suppressed as the current consensus.

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2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

These don’t always come north, we only remember the ones that come north, for obvious reasons.

Its a complicated look, and that means we could see big changes at short leads. This “event” if and when it reaches us is about a week away.

Its not a great look currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out a bit better, or at least grazes south and east area with some snow.

Find me a major snow storm that nailed the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki winter....no one has done so yet.

At this time range, I think information like that has some utility.....maybe this is the first. Not saying it can't be, but its something to consider.

 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Find me a major snow storm that nailed the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki winter....no one has done so yet.

At this time range, I think information like that has some utility.....maybe this is the first. Not saying it can't be, but its something to consider.

 

If this does end up being the first, it would probably be due to something like an ill timed PV lobe....stochastic nuance.

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The hours that you really all want to focus on as we all know is on Tuesday Dec. 11 (165-177) hours.  That, at this time right now, is the closest pass this potential storm this far out gets to us.  I would rather it be this close now and watching it than it saying direct hit snowstorm right now.  Just a hunch for now.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Find me a major snow storm that nailed the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki winter....no one has done so yet.

At this time range, I think information like that has some utility.....maybe this is the first. Not saying it can't be, but its something to consider.

 

It could also be that the MA doesn’t wind up with a major snowstorm at all and we all lose.  Not that I would forecast that...

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18 minutes ago, Greg said:

The hours that you really all want to focus on as we all know is on Tuesday Dec. 12 (165-177) hours.  That, at this time right now, is the closest pass this potential storm this far out gets to us.  I would rather it be this close now and watching it than it saying direct hit snowstorm right now.  Just a hunch for now.

I think history probably shows that d8-9 modeled hits turn into cutters much more frequently than d8-9 OTS solutions turn into major snowstorms.  Be interesting to know.

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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think history probably shows that d8-9 modeled hits turn into cutters much more frequently than d8-9 OTS solutions turn into major snowstorms.  Be interesting to know.

Let me tell ya, a 160 nautical mile diference is really not much at all 7 days out in the world of weather.

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