Hoth Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 New GFS looks like it wants to play a game of "Just the Tip" with far SNE. Just for a minute, just to see how it feels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Greg said: Yes, just like Ray has stated also in some of his blogs on here.. If you really want to get technical, read isotherm's stuff....some it is just about over my head. Dude takes it to another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I hope you are right but at this time I do not see anything to base that on. Check out GEFS. You’ll be happy. Trend is towards good times but probably 12/20 onwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I hope you are right but at this time I do not see anything to base that on. From a seasonal stand point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Usually all it takes is for one good model run for many here to proclaim "cold and snow ahead" It's always the "bad" model runs that get tossed. Confirmation bias is a strong force. OP runs really shouldn't even be looked at beyond D6-7 IMHO. Ensembles score so much better once out in that D9-10 and beyond range. When people look at OP runs out in that range, they are settling looking at a solution that is a lot worse than the ensembles. There's no point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: New GFS looks like it wants to play a game of "Just the Tip" with far SNE. Just for a minute, just to see how it feels. You just brought be back 60 years....oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Confirmation bias is a strong force. OP runs really shouldn't even be looked at beyond D6-7 IMHO. Ensembles score so much better once out in that D9-10 and beyond range. When people look at OP runs out in that range, they are settling looking at a solution that is a lot worse than the ensembles. There's no point. All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term. If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term. If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. Well, "okay" is a more neutral term....awful is not, but I know what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Until sampled, It don't matter, Even if our model that is running now shows a bomb at 12z, It needs more time to get sorted out. Yea, it would be just a possible outcome. Frankly I prefer this stays a tad se until inside d4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, it would be just a possible outcome. Frankly I prefer this stays a tad se until inside d4/5. Well, You know some would run with it....lol, I'm in favor of the latter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, "okay" is a more neutral term....awful is not, but I know what you mean Often times posting here is similar to placing a $10,000 buy or sell order on a stock. Doing so is going to cause a reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term. If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want. My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want. My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility. Just let him go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I wasn;t disagreeing with you....that's why I made the note about confirmation bias...it's what causes people to comment on the OP GFS in the long range when they see what they want but not to make any comment when it shows something they don't want. My point about the ensembles was that we'd probably avoid a lot of clutter if we just didn't look at OP runs beyond a certain timeframe. Or at least avoid taking them with any ounce of credibility. I understand and agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just let him go This forum should have let you go a long time ago. BTW what happened to your snowy week??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: All I wrote was that the GFS looked awful in the long term. If I had written "the GFS looks ok in the long term" ...there wouldn't had been a single reply lol. Welcome to the weather forums dude, ha, I think that's how it's been since Day 1 back in the early 2000s. Bad news gets dissected to see if it can be proven wrong...good news means just roll along, throw a high-five, nothing to discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I understand and agree. Thank you for reeling it in. That was embarrassing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Welcome to the weather forums dude, ha, I think that's how it's been since Day 1 back in the early 2000s. Bad news gets dissected to see if it can be proven wrong...good news means just roll along, throw a high-five, nothing to discuss here. Keywords will always get responses on here, Be it negative or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Welcome to the weather forums dude, ha, I think that's how it's been since Day 1 back in the early 2000s. Bad news gets dissected to see if it can be proven wrong...good news means just roll along, throw a high-five, nothing to discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Keywords will always get responses on here, Be it negative or positive. The "negative" posts or perceived ones do get more replies but they also foster the most actual weather discussion. They lead to more discussion about features we want to see change to get positive trends. When stuff is all good it's less actual Met discussion. Like this storm has work to do and there's plenty of good disco about what needs to happen. If every model showed a hit, it would be more high-fiving than Met discussion. It's not a bad thing, we learn more from the near misses and get better discussion IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thank you for reeling it in. That was embarrassing As if your countless posts about window ac units...high dews...summer beginning in April....and your meltdowns aren't embarrassing????…oh gee I forgot your self imposed exiles from the forums because the weather wasn't delivering exactly what you desired. Something tells me you are already in a complete frenzy regarding the winter. BTW have you ever come up with one single post to prove that others were mentioning a 1816 repeat for the summer of 17 or 18?? ….it was a made up fairy tale in your mind because you were depressed about not having a summer filled with high dews and heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: As if your countless posts about window ac units...high dews...summer beginning in April....and your meltdowns aren't embarrassing????…oh gee I forgot your self imposed exiles from the forums because the weather wasn't delivering exactly what you desired. Something tells me you are already in a complete frenzy regarding the winter. BTW have you ever come up with one single post to prove that others were mentioning a 1816 repeat for the summer of 17 or 18?? ….it was a made up fairy tale in your mind because you were depressed about not having a summer filled with high dews and heat. I’d suggest you find another hobby. One that you can understand a little better, so as not to publicly humiliate yourself . It’s almost like you just got caught naked in the front picture window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d suggest you find another hobby. One that you can understand a little better, so as not to publicly humiliate yourself . It’s almost like you just got caught naked in the front picture window Hmm I suggest you grow up and stop acting like a spoiled child when the weather doesn't deliver exactly what you want it to be. You constantly fret about the weather. I do not. You are just upset that things do not look so good in the long term. Once again, have you found a single post to prove you are correct about an 1816 repeat??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 man this pv over eastern Canada aint no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yea. And it’s close. Good spot to be at d7 unless some think they wanna get jacked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As many of sad, it’s a very complicated flow, but plenty of time for some adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You drop that bad larry sooner down the backside of our southern streamer then watch the post count rise in here as well as the laptops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: You drop that bad larry sooner down the backside of our southern streamer then watch the post count rise in here as well as the laptops. And our tighty whitey briefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You drop that bad larry sooner down the backside of our southern streamer then watch the post count rise in here as well as the laptops. Did it improve relative to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And our tighty whitey briefs? Packages would be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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