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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, dryslot said:

0z GGEM is 978mb over ginx's head for the system on the 10th.................:lol:

What will role eyes but is still true whether the compartment behind those eyes resonates or not, ...is that the GGEM is the only model that hasn't gone completely flat with that Dec 9/10 deal going back some seven cycles or so. 

Not that it helps determinism - just sayn'

The  Euro did look as though it morphed a 'little' more interesting, too.  

As I'm sure you and everyone else is aware, the GFS and it's parallel joy-toy still are mightily suppressed ... beat goes on. 

Yesterday I experimented in terseness in hopes that anyone's attention span would read more than three key words deep... but I'm not sure if it was ever bothered with.  The keys to the amplitude in space on this thing is entirely assimilation and sat sounding -attributed/related. Then... using those to correctly model the entire circulation medium of the Pac Basin gets more dicey than desired.. There are wave mechanics bullying in off the Pac ... kicking Dec 9's parental wave into gear, and the nature in which that interaction takes place is critical.  This entire scope of moving parts does leave a little bit more margin for error - which...case in point, seeing variances in the Euro /GGEM ... hearkens to the variability. 

Long of the short, I said Wednesday morning we'll probably see a particular uptick in coherence among the guidance.  And even then, .. the 00z Euro shows at 120 hours a subtle albeit noticeable increase in mid-stream mechanics being injected through the lower Canadian Rockies,... that is offering a late phase option ...which is quite clearly why it has lifted a slightly more total potency 'that' much closer to Cape Cod through the period in question.  That piece of plausible phasing energy might not be sampling entirely perfect as well...  

I think anyone giving up on this feature an idiot.  I also believe that without the N/stream (or the intermediate stream(s) ) it does get harder to bring an event this far up the coast.  So it's still on the fence.  

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

JB do you think this is considered a triple phase jet storm with the PV lobe diving in?

The potential is there of course. But I don’t want to get that far ahead—I’m far enough ahead as it is. Uncertainty wise, it doesn’t help that I think the northern stream shortwave is the dominant feature, which is further out in time and originating in a region that is sparsely sampled. The lure is to focus on the southern stream shortwave but I think the most important action is in the northern stream.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, jbenedet said:

The potential is there of course. But I don’t want to get that far ahead—I’m far enough ahead as it is. Uncertainty wise, it doesn’t help that I think the northern stream shortwave is the dominant feature, which is further out in time and originating in a region that is sparsely sampled. The lure is to focus on the southern stream shortwave wave but I think the most important action is in the northern stream.

Complete agreement.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
Just now, jbenedet said:

The potential is there of course. But I don’t want to get that far ahead—I’m far enough ahead as it is. Uncertainty wise, it doesn’t help that I think the northern stream shortwave is the dominant feature, which is further out in time and originating in a region that is sparsely sampled. The lure is to focus on the southern stream shortwave wave but I think the most important action is in the northern stream.

I agree, but it is always tough when most of the guidance is making you look bad.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It may come north, but I'm sort of 50/50 on it. We know how these go, and Chris gave some interesting thoughts about the sampling up there regarding satellite. Makes sense, to. So I'm open to the possibility of some sort of impact. 

Yes...exactly. Some automatically assume a blizzard is implied if you favor some sort of action, and that is not necessarily the case.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned Boxing day 2004 in a text last night to Will and scooter..that season began similarly, and will probably end up in like fashion, too.

Mix to paste job and power outages. Made driving home from watching the Pats game interesting. The Cape got crushed. I had about 8" iirc.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I'm wondering if you're concerned at all about about the winds at 500mb spoiling things. The flow looks pretty compressed, which seems less than ideal for northern stream phasing. I think Tippy mentioned something about it the other day. Makes me wonder if this remains more southern stream dominant. At any rate, certainly worth watching.

I don't think that is prohibitive to seeing some snow...no one is calling for the blizz of '78.....but yea, its potentially a limiting factor.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is perilously close to nuking us....there is a little northern lobe getting involved at the last moment on this run. 

Watch that moving forward....still think this may end up more n stream involvement.

Yeah...just commented on that ... (late to the party this morning...) 

But I think what is important about that is the 'uncertainty' quotient for the panning of the Pacific Basin.  I and others have been mentioning the data assimilation ...and we all know that's sort of a perfunctory consideration at all times, particularly for these faster, shallow latitude wave patterns ... but the reminding is warranted in this case because it appears this is a situation that is quite sensitive to subtle variance.  It's sort of a 'needle threader' in some ways, just by timing stream interactions alone - ..which is crucially connected to sampling.

As an after thought ...as recently as the Boxing Day event ... "recently"/ heh, wow...  time flies.. but that is an example of whiplash correction?   You know..in some ways, this is as much predicting model corrections.  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

All I’m seeing is that the heights over the eastern CONUS continue to trend higher, as they have over the past several days. I also said several days back that this “blocky” look across guidance will fade over time and that is also trending favorably. I also think (with high confidence) that PV lobe will drop in, and is being telegraphed by a plunge in the AO. 

The two keys going forward IMHO, You can see on some of these runs, Steps towards both.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dickie Tolleris is honking for lower mid atl. We know how it trends so far north he rains in Richmond, and ends up cursing the nam. 

Yeah Dick T had done that for countless snowstorms over the years , citing how many Euro runs in a row have kept it a Mid Atlantic storm . We all recall those posts. And then we all recall him losing it as the storm ends up bringing snows to the northeast while he rains and slots . This ones no different . You can predict the evolution of both to a T. T as in Tolleris 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn't see a big bump.

Yea 

 

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gibbs pointed it out this AM on texts. It was a bump 

5% chance of over 3 inches in 15 days doesn't exactly get your heart pumping but the Euro was more encouraging and based on 7H RH values our little friend on CAPE COD MA USA might see an outside band, a move NW by 100 miles puts you and me on the edge, 150 puts all of SNE . We watch from afar for now

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

idk...this could still go either way depending on how the northern stream plays out. That lead northern s/w that really dug out ahead of the southern one on the GFS yesterday morning was a lot weaker/north overnight. It's moving the strongest confluence north and the southern system is a little stronger and slowing down a bit. That's letting the trailing s/w catch up just in time to make it interesting. But we still need an earlier phase. CMC would be nice...it goes bonkers with the trailing northern piece. Still casually interested.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The potential is there of course. But I don’t want to get that far ahead—I’m far enough ahead as it is. Uncertainty wise, it doesn’t help that I think the northern stream shortwave is the dominant feature, which is further out in time and originating in a region that is sparsely sampled. The lure is to focus on the southern stream shortwave but I think the most important action is in the northern stream.

Well we have the EC the GEM the GFS the FV3 and the KFS.  I'm adding the VFS to the mix.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well, it's definitely true that a storm passing  south at Day 5+ gets a lot more talk than one progged to pass north at that time frame, lol.  

Not one of your more favored systems up here in CNE/NNE for a significant event, As discussed in the past, I'll take all the Miller B's and Clipper types that nobody else wants, To many things need to go right for a siggy Miller A up here, Not that it can't happen, Just that it doesn't more often then not...........

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Right now I'd favor a southern solution and hope for the best.  Still a ways to go before real sampling happens.

I'll bet if you researched the topic thoroughly, you would be hard pressed to unearth a major winter storm that heavily impacted the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki el nino season.

Plenty were modeled to, sure....Jan 2005 one very notable one....Jan 2015 was supposed to fish.

Northern stream will rule this season.

Ponder that one for a bit...

 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if you researched the topic thoroughly, you would we hard pressed to unearth a major winter storm that heavily impacted the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki el nino season.

Ponder that one for a bit...

DC to BOS has had some good ones in the past where we have sat shaking a snow globe to get the same affect up here.

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