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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

18z GFS is el garbage for next weekend. 

Don't look at the results as much as the H5 setup, the pattern is favorable for a digging arctic jet, GFS is about 6-12 hours off on timing right now.  That means it will take a few little corrections to get us to where we want to be.  Plus, the Thursday front actually tries to develop something south of Long Island and we could get some enhanced snowfall on the coast as winds try to turn northeast.  We need to watch the whole week period after Tuesday.

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Don't look at the results as much as the H5 setup, the pattern is favorable for a digging arctic jet, GFS is about 6-12 hours off on timing right now.  That means it will take a few little corrections to get us to where we want to be.  Plus, the Thursday front actually tries to develop something south of Long Island and we could get some enhanced snowfall on the coast as winds try to turn northeast.  We need to watch the whole week period after Tuesday.

Yeah. Right now it’s too little too late. 

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I just took a look at the GFS model.  I'll tell ya, some of these storms that are suppressed right now are not so suppressed being 9-11 days out.  Usually for our area storms that look suppressed in the medium range tend to correct themselves further northwest as you get closer.  So this isn't all that bad considering some thought we would have a giant southeast ridge giving most of us 45-55F weather for almost the rest of the month.  At least we have a pattern that looks cold enough for snow and storms to track.  Hang in there ;)

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

GEFS made another big step in the longer range....eps made a smaller step but the direction is ok.   12/21-31 could rock.

Which would be exactly when it would be most appreciated.   As I said earlier, I will sacrifice some early Dec snow for the possibility of an actual stretch of dry weather.  We are overdue for a dry spell.  Cold and dry will be good for the firewood!

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3 hours ago, Greg said:

I just took a look at the GFS model.  I'll tell ya, some of these storms that are suppressed right now are not so suppressed being 9-11 days out.  Usually for our area storms that look suppressed in the medium range tend to correct themselves further northwest as you get closer.  So this isn't all that bad considering some thought we would have a giant southeast ridge giving most of us 45-55F weather for almost the rest of the month.  At least we have a pattern that looks cold enough for snow and storms to track.  Hang in there ;)

That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. 

There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. 

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