weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Edit-984 just outside. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 CMC-check GFS-check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Edit-984 just outside. Good trends. Loop 850 temp, a make your own cold Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Edit-984 just outside. Good trends. We need an injection of cold air in the storm as it reaches the coast, that will preclude any ability for warming at the surface at the coastline. GFS had a polar shortwave on the backside of the trough approaching the Great Lakes but actually phases too late. The best chance for snow on Cape Cod this week, is probably from a coastal storm that develops as the arctic front confronts the Gulf stream south of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Loop 850 temp, a make your own cold Miller A Gfs fuks it all up it seems but at this juncture it’s not really relevant. I just want to see the models keep s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Man it becomes a monster in the maritimes. NAO creator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Gfs fuks it all up it seems but at this juncture it’s not really relevant. I just want to see the models keep s storm. 16 more runs then we pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 For a storm 8 days a way... snowfall distribution on cmc and gfs are pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looking at this 12z operational GFS depiction for hour 144 and comparing the overall structure to the same time interval on the previous two cycles ... and tracing the events backward in time to their source/origin ... it's pretty clear there are substantial uncertainties as to what is ultimately going to get relayed off the Pacific ocean through the West. You guys are right that the ridge on the backside of the wave(s) pops rigorously (more so) than the 06z, but again,...that's the entire sort of 'interstitial' relationship between about 150 or 160 W through 120 W part of the PNA's domain/handling, controlling "weather" that happens (haha). Kidding aside, those differences ...both wrt to that and the wave mechanical power sampling, are obviously going to be key as to what sets up in the MV-MA and up the Coast later on next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, at this point I just want to see that we're still in the game. The signal for an event is there. I think we need to hope for a decent low and a slower trend to get a phase and journey up the coast. I like where we sit but like you said...long way to go. I don't need a perfect solution this far out, that cannot be expected, but it is definitely the right step. Watch that shortwave explode as it impacts the backside of the long wave eastern US trough, once in nears our sub-tropical shortwave, the wave explodes over the Great Lakes, this phase is about 12-18 hours too late for us, and needs to speed up. This is more likely to happen in a fast flow anchored by the -AO polar vortex over Northern Hudson Bay. We need the phase earlier and further east so that it brings in the coldest airmass possible into the storm center. With this air mass over the Gulf Stream, static instability will light the storm on fire, and allow the pressure to drop like a rock and speed up the moisture over cold dome process. This could produce QPF amounts over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Overall this gfs run shows how to keep a torch from dominating, NAO ftw. And said NAO keeps us active and snowy. Clown range but would be nice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man it becomes a monster in the maritimes. NAO creator? Look at that block, Zeus approved banana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Look at that block, Zeus approved banana We just need that arctic wave to ignite the phase with the southern shortwave and we get our blizzard to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Classic look of a maturing storm down south and a banded structure up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I find Isotherms thread in the NYC forum to be comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 ...Seeing the subsequent time intervals/handling therefrom... yeah, that's a subsumer into the Maritimes, a consequence of the N-stream being (perhaps) subtly differently handled for it's own headaches of spacial temporalities. "If If If" we are in the ball-park on this particular run ( ) ...then enters interest as to whether that N-stream interaction is correct. It's going to be a preventative or supportive... It can suppress, or..it can phase; particularly on the latter, if the backside ridge pops that much more, it will effectively "grab" any wayward polar/arctic mechanics dangling around the Canadian shield and send it south for merry go around of antics... But, that's all speculative, still in the envelope of plausibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Classic look of a maturing storm down south and a banded structure up here. Yeah the gfs shows this pretty well. Kind of meh by the time it gets here. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a good storm, but that look would be a whopper down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah the gfs shows this pretty well. Kind of meh by the time it gets here. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a good storm, but that look would be a whopper down south Brett, we need the northern stream (polar jet) to phase in about six to twelve hours faster for a full on snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Overall this gfs run shows how to keep a torch from dominating, NAO ftw. And said NAO keeps us active and snowy. Clown range but would be nice..... Absolutely, this is how we run a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We need an injection of cold air in the storm as it reaches the coast, that will preclude any ability for warming at the surface at the coastline. GFS had a polar shortwave on the backside of the trough approaching the Great Lakes but actually phases too late. The best chance for snow on Cape Cod this week, is probably from a coastal storm that develops as the arctic front confronts the Gulf stream south of ACK. People care outside of cape cod too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: People care outside of cape cod too. Oh yeah my bad, I think Ginxy will like the windex event potentially midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: People care outside of cape cod too. Need to watch this front as it shifts offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely, this is how we run a torch? d11-16 MSLP from an op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: d11-16 MSLP from an op run? Also nobody said torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Brett, we need the northern stream (polar jet) to phase in about six to twelve hours faster for a full on snowstorm. An amped up bomb probably gives you a nice rainstorm. I think you should be cheering on just enough suppression and then get a deformation band from the southern stream storm over your head. Anyway, the GFS has been consistent with having that northern stream s/w run out ahead of the southern system and basically plays the turd in the punchbowl preventing a phase and the southern stream from being able to amplify on its own. Way too early to be worrying about all that though as all of the models will be trying to figure out these shortwaves in the flow over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: d11-16 MSLP from an op run? Just talking with Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Interesting...that whole run is rife with chances, actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Just talking with Jerry PM maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also nobody said torch. Sensitive? I can post some tweets from Mets who did. That run was just an example of how to keep winter nearby. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: PM maybe? PMS maybe? How much did you get, pics of the Coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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