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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Eyeballing about 2 inches on my car. But light rain now. Thought we might lose the snow packed by tomorrow morning but maybe we hang on, freeze up and then get a north and west trend later in the week. Then we’re good straight to March

Seems a little high of an estimate. Had 1.0” here, but the Canterbury and Boscawen reports on cocorahs are in the 1/2”-3/4” range. I don’t recall where you are in town though.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

People really do experiences a sense of exhilaration whenever that cinema portrays a bomb.  Wow... that was fast.

Instead pumping the meat, as Will oft' likes to recommend ... 'pump the breaks.'  Seems apropos at this juncture.   

... A little disillusionment is probably a good thing for this present era, when verification tendencies have recently trended toward LESS than the panache of D 6-10 suggestions in general. 

Or not ... go ahead and get our dopamine flush, only to maximize our fall if we like - up to us. I suspect people can't stop themselves, though.

Be that as it may, that is D9 +  and it's one run ...let's just keep that in mind, how ever difficult it is to do so.  

Trying to employ a dose of healthy skepticism to counter-act the drug of the models .... I don't see that general canvas of synoptic evolution out there in time as being very favorable for that 'needle thread' solution.   Having said that ... needle threading means just that: in a hostile environment, getting anything to happen is an engagement of narrow tolerances, so to be far - we'll see.  However, the flow initially (day 3-5) is too compressed...  Heights over Florida and adjacent are lofty... and as this week's cold presses through the NP-Lakes and OV regions, it is speeding up the flow too fast for individual S/Ws... It's interesting that both the Euro and the GGEM are not seeing that, and are maintaining southern stream cohesion as they propagate what is really only a mid-range wave mechanics right through said compression.  I can 'imagine' a way in which that is possible (as an offset); it may be ...the heights over Florida (used just for identification purpose - there's nothing inherent to Florida's existence) are in the process of differentiating lower, "AS" said southern stream mechanics are arriving..That sort of relay my give a faux impression that the mechanics are doing that but it's really a hidden larger --> smaller scale change if that were the case.

So, we'll see where we go on modeling.  Obviously...being D9 ...all this and everything governing will likely change anyway.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Seems a little high of an estimate. Had 1.0” here, but the Canterbury and Boscawen reports on cocorahs are in the 1/2”-3/4” range. I don’t recall where you are in town though.

Water Street up on a hill, a couple of hundred feet highter than the main street near the river.  Was definitely more than an inch...I think close to 2.  But I didn't measure.  We usually are the same as Canterbury though, and you as well but we had less than you last week I'm pretty sure. We went out walking at 8 when it was already raining for 2 hours and it was more than an inch. 

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Posted

John, I don't like the weekend even for being a snow event right now, unless I see a change overall in the synoptics involved.  Given lack of an arctic shortwave impetus for phasing potential, I don't see how with a high north of the storm moving eastward too quickly will produce southeasterly winds instead of Northeasterly or even northerly.  There is no cold air drainage present for the coastal plain southeast of the I95 corridor, we need to either see the lead shortwave slow down in future runs, or the backside shortwave phase in deeply with the southern stream disturbance.  Without the phase the arctic airmass before the storm on Thursday and Friday lifts northward, it is going to be quite cold on Thursday and Friday across all of the region.  There is deep 850mb cold present with that midweek arctic front and trough.  If we can maintain decent mid-level jet dynamics with that arctic shortwave and have it dig further southeast, maybe we can get an appetizing event with a miller B snowstorm scenario, that would produce a 1-3 or 3-6" event, the models want to produce a strong cyclone with this frontal system, just too far northeast into Nova Scotia.

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