December Discussion

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

You are talking about the possibility that an Operational GFS run of the 18z hour being correct for 16 days, come on.

"if the GFS verifies".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Vote for Jimmy for UWOY .

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

You are talking about the possibility that an Operational GFS run of the 18z hour being correct for 16 days, come on.

Only correct when it shows Harwich with 24”. Otherwise, the model is playing catchup. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Aren't you the one posting day 14 blizzards?

Since when did I post about 14 day blizzards, the one I am talking about is less than 5 days out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This place is gonna be tuff for the next week Minimum

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Get a hold of your weenie and squeeze it real tight, until you pass out. When you awake, it will be April....and you’ll feel much better. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Get a hold of your weenie and squeeze it real tight, until you pass out. When you awake, it will be April....and you’ll feel much better. 

Solid advice 

he will wake up in a big pool of qpf

[HoarfrostHubb]

Record cold Thanksgiving I think will make it one I remember.  I still remember Christmas 1980 and it’s cold pretty well.  The rest of the winter was sucky I think...

As BB once said...”We’re on to D8”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The last two weeks could have used a little something. The November event was excellent, just wish we could have added a couple. I'm well aware of climo, but we also had a winter climo last two weeks, so it was possible. Oh well. 

No arguments here... it probably should have been better, especially the last week to 10 days.

As far as December goes, looks like that fantasy day 9 threat is the only intriguing event lurking on the models.

Looks like we moderate after the first 10 days of the month. How long is the question

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Vote for Jimmy for UWOY .

I won that in 2009...campaigned like mofo and just edged out Brick Tamland from the se forum lol

[monadnocks]

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was wondering what the new ipswich, temple , francestown corridor had at 1k. Francestown prolly the most bc that 0c 925 contour was probably south of them longer

There should be several choices. I live at the bottom of a 1200’ hill so you could just drive up there. You can hike up the access road to South Pack (Miller State Park) and that’s  2290’. Across the road, Temple Mountain is 2044’. In Bennington, Crotched is 2064’. The Crotched Mountain Rehab Center in Greenfield is close to the same height and you can also drive to the top there. There’s a couple of hiking trails too. 

If you want small mountains, it’s not that far.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are almost an Aleutian low later in the 11-15 day. I'll gladly take that and be wrong should it happen.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

While we had a very active (Wet) several months of weather , who besides central - S California has been very dry 

 

is it it legit to wonder if the pattern reverses or would this just tend to go back to “ normal” given any clues from ENSO

The GFS does have a wet outlook for much of the west coast. Not so much on the FV3.  The rainfall totals in So. Cal bear watching Tues-Thurs of next week. 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The GFS does have a wet outlook for much of the west coast. Not so much on the FV3.  The rainfall totals in So. Cal bear watching Tues-Thurs of next week. 

I was in LA or 1977-78.  Rained like a mofo....triple normal.  Epic snow winter here.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I was in LA or 1977-78.  Rained like a mofo....triple normal.  Epic snow winter here.

I think of 77-78 as having 2 major storms but not an overall snowy winter. Both storms brought significant snow. If my memory is serving me well there was bare ground prior to the storm in Jan. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think of 77-78 as having 2 major storms but not an overall snowy winter. Both storms brought significant snow. If my memory is serving me well there was bare ground prior to the storm in Jan. 

Well I was in LA but Logan reported 83.9 inches.  Apparently they were sail skating on the Charles near the science museum.  It was a winter for the ages.  I visited the first week of March and snow totals otg were epic despite no snow for the prior 3-4 weeks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well I was in LA but Logan reported 83.9 inches.  Apparently they were sail skating on the Charles near the science museum.  It was a winter for the ages.  I visited the first week of March and snow totals otg were epic despite no snow for the prior 3-4 weeks.

Overall a huge winter, but really the two storms brought the majority of it.  Also, after Feb 6 I don’t think it snowed again.  I think the Jan storm had 22” or so and the Feb Blizzard had 27”?  And Logan was shafted...lol.  I don’t recall much of the winter otherwise

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Guidance tries to separate next weekend into two waves as heights in w canada roll eastward. One would think this consolidates as we move foward and comes up the coast. 

[LurkerBoy]

Eric Fisher thinks warmup is a blip. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are almost an Aleutian low later in the 11-15 day. I'll gladly take that and be wrong should it happen.

eps looks to show something similar. And with higher heights pushing into greenland over to siberia, the pv kinda gets trapped underneath. Doable?

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Overall a huge winter, but really the two storms brought the majority of it.  Also, after Feb 6 I don’t think it snowed again.  I think the Jan storm had 22” or so and the Feb Blizzard had 27”?  And Logan was shafted...lol.  I don’t recall much of the winter otherwise

There was a good storm in early March 1978 that broke the 4 week drought of storms. Brought about 8-12" to BOS and ORH. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Eric Fisher thinks warmup is a blip. 

The warm-up doesn't look impressive at all. Maybe a few days?

[WinterWolf]

Ya I think this supposed warm up is starting to show signs of it not being what some feared...obviously that’s a good thing.  Again, long range is very volatile..I wouldn’t put to much trust into any one thing???  

 

The whole “PIG IS COMING THING”  never sat well with me, especially as Jerry pointed out that it has been out there for quite some time ...and is having issues getting much, if any closer??  To me that’s a sign that modeling is struggling..and not to trust any one thing. 

 

 

[Zach’s Pop]

49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The warm-up doesn't look impressive at all. Maybe a few days?

Only people who hump the eps or like trolling snow weenies thought the warm up was a torch and long lasting 

[ORH_wxman]

There's still plenty of uncertainty around the length of the warmup. It's definitely coming. The question is whether it's 4-6 days or 10-14 days. I don't think anyone should be spiking footballs yet proclaiming it's going to be a brief blip. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's still plenty of uncertainty around the length of the warmup. It's definitely coming. The question is whether it's 4-6 days or 10-14 days. I don't think anyone should be spiking footballs yet proclaiming it's going to be a brief blip. 

So in your mind there’s no way we can avoid days - week or so of 40’s and 50’s + in all of NE?

[LurkerBoy]

I bet we get a weekish of normal-slightly above.

 

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1068352565979561984?s=20

[Typhoon Tip]

Yep... there it is... the first sign that the big warm up is in trouble, if perhaps hinted. I would argue it's the second or third sign, actually, but that's complicated.

But from here on, watch as said hint only grows into an ever-denied din. Until the freight train of actually verifying opposite the warm anomalies ( a stabbing cold pop chagrins ha ha) rumbles through those same dates ... At which time, the next big warm up is slated to ruin Christmas ...  And around and around we go on the endless reel of imaginary disappointments.  All the while... it never snows, ironically. For different reasons all together.  Oy... the life and times of hapless soul whose plugged their joy dependency circuits into the vagary of the wind ... This could be a time to employ the ten-year old adage: find another hobby. We'll see...

Being snarky there of course, but... if the warm-up does continues to abate? (...and that's still just a question, not a statement of fact or clad prognostic, just a question), I won't be shocked.  I've stated my case for why I am not sold on it - or December being much of anything beyond very weak skill at this time.  I admit that this paragraph means I'm riding the fence ...and that's good - I intend to mean just that; 50/50 in my mind. I suspect some Meteorologists are all in, some are backing down ...I'm not in refute or support respectively. 

Folks should try and process the following qualifier: These statements and exposed muses by back-office engineers of prognostic weather, they are always peering left or right along a spectrum of tendencies and chances. Not to knock on anyone, but constructively, I've noticed a tendency over the years in dealing with the Internet and the general population for people to often poach key words out of a turns of phrase, and then hyper-focus on that which tints said phrase to fit in with their sought interpretation. 

Anywho:  ( (seasonal trend/model correction behavior) + Delta( EPO domain space handling) ) /2 ... don't really support the EPS... a product that is definitely not infallible at D10 to 20.  It's skill isn't zero, though ...

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a good storm in early March 1978 that broke the 4 week drought of storms. Brought about 8-12" to BOS and ORH. 

My bad. I seemed to recall it being a shutout after the blizzard.  Maybe just Feb then 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So in your mind there’s no way we can avoid days - week or so of 40’s and 50’s + in all of NE?

I would be shocked if we didn't have at least 4 days of 40+ highs. Not sure about widespread 50s yet. Def for the usual torch areas though...they'll see at least 2-3 days of 50s I'm betting. You have to remember climo is like 37F even at ORH on 12/12  

Whether we see this extend for over a week or not remains to be seen. There's obviously nuances we can't predict yet...if we get stuck under a nosing high from Nova Scotia or something and the temp is rotting at 37F despite 850 temps of +5. The whole thing could underperform too.