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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice snowy day in CT today 

 

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Low standards

Ha. Lol.

It has been a pretty good November for most of CT as far as snow goes so seeing light snow falling here on the final day of the month is fitting....even though it won't amount to anything.

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Heh... as is, not liking that deep vortex over Ontario squatting over top those Gulf/OM heights though.  

You know, ..this almost smacks like we are just getting too cold above the 50th parallel, too early...  Meanwhile, the southern latitudes really aren't seasonally yielding ...much.  But that just creates gradient saturation -

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6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

Ha. Lol.

It has been a pretty good November for most of CT as far as snow goes so seeing light snow falling here on the final day of the month is fitting....even though it won't amount to anything.

 
“Yeah, this album is dedicated
To all the teachers that told me I'd never amount to nothin'
To all the people that lived above the buildings that I was hustlin' in front of
Called the police on me when I was just tryin' to make some money to feed my daughter (it's all good)
And all the ni—- in the struggle
You know what I'm sayin'? It's all good, baby baby”

 

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It's clown range, so take with a grain of salt for predictive purposes, but for analytical purposes, it is a good panel to show how a warmup might fail or vastly under perform in New England.....so you'd probably be rooting for something that looks somewhat similar as we get closer...

 

Below is the hemispheric pattern on the D10 Euro....note the PV getting pushed into Quebec and there is still EPO ridging (albeit weakening) along with an east-based NAO ridge that is in the process of building. This type of setup may trap the PV for a bit in Quebec and prevent a big warmup in NE beyond Dec 10-12th. The PV lobe in Kamchatka (north of Japan for those wondering) is also not in an ideal spot to torch us and could actually prolong some of the ridging to the east of it for a few days anyways.....

 

 

Nov30_12zEuroD10.png

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:
 
“Yeah, this album is dedicated
To all the teachers that told me I'd never amount to nothin'
To all the people that lived above the buildings that I was hustlin' in front of
Called the police on me when I was just tryin' to make some money to feed my daughter (it's all good)
And all the ni—- in the struggle
You know what I'm sayin'? It's all good, baby baby”

 

It was all a dream

i used to read Northeast snowstorm magazine 

Jan 2005 And Juno up in my bedroom scene

Hanging snow pics on my wall.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's clown range, so take with a grain of salt for predictive purposes, but for analytical purposes, it is a good panel to show how a warmup might fail or vastly under perform in New England.....so you'd probably be rooting for something that looks somewhat similar as we get closer...

 

Below is the hemispheric pattern on the D10 Euro....note the PV getting pushed into Quebec and there is still EPO ridging (albeit weakening) along with an east-based NAO ridge that is in the process of building. This type of setup may trap the PV for a bit in Quebec and prevent a big warmup in NE beyond Dec 10-12th. The PV lobe in Kamchatka (north of Japan for those wondering) is also not in an ideal spot to torch us and could actually prolong some of the ridging to the east of it for a few days anyways.....

 

 

Nov30_12zEuroD10.png

EPS showed some height changes on the + side in that area too. Hopefully we can limit any mild period. 

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I moved the snow obs from today to the obs/banter thread. Lets try and keep this to December pattern discussion. Our season started early this year, but even in other years, spring training is over so we're gonna try and keep the threads cleaner.

 

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This is ...uh, heh, probably unnoticed but the 12z NAM has LI's down into the -2 range with a pretty significant warm push into the region Sunday.  

Almost wonder if thunderstorms enter the picture.  why not ... nothin' else goin on.  may as well hear some rice-crispies from the sky.

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Ending the month of Nov with snow is apropos for a month where I had 9.52 precip , 8.5 of snow, -3.5 or so BN temp wise with 25 out of 30 BN. The upcoming pattern in Dec is so ripe for the picking.  The cryosphere to our NorthEast is loaded with deep snow being reinforced. The PV is under attack, hemispheric reshuffling is under way after the next two weeks.  A moderation will occur with now all signs pointing to a re-establishment of the pattern set up in Nov. Close in the threat for an Archambault event (heavy winter precip either snow or rain)as teleconnenctions reverse their current state. 

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He-I’m Zach’s pop!  My Zach is 41 years old..

That d9+ item is looking sweet from clown range-one can hope...

I am Zachs pop. My Zach is 33 and a weenie who filled in for me as a well trained spotter when I lived in RI.  10 years old for the epic 95/96 winter. He was OCD about it too.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks transient , deepest anomaly moving out in to the Pac NW, heights rebuilding over Greenland.  We mute, week or so. Lots of attention given to what will amount to a reshuffle. 

That’s pretty stable imo. Gonna need AK low to retrograde or dissolve. Still think a 2 week mild up. 

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Man, taking a look long range, it seems overall coldish and dry.  Only some of the storms come around the Colorado area and go through the eastern Great Lakes. The others seem to just roll off the southeast Mid-Atlantic and never develop in this fast flow. What we need is an upper level disturbance from the great lakes to come off the southeastern New Jersey coast and head northeast. But this overall upper air flow doesn't seem to support that right now.  Until we can get a slight change in the upper air flow, this is what we have.  Of course we can keep an eye on the December 9th situation but that is still rather far out for my taste.

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