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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I say this with all the respect in the world, but you know models don’t determine storm tracks, right?

Wow, nah really.  I am not an idiot.  The storm tracks could be impacted by the arctic shortwave and how it is sampled in the next three days.  That will help determine our phasing potential

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Anticipated, didn’t like this period. 

The mild up will likely offer more chances 

I've never understood people getting angry over the weather. Afterall none of us have any control over the weather. As we both realize SNE can have some great winters and some winters which are terrible for those of us who enjoy cold and snow. 

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I am just saying, that don't be surprised to see changes once both energies get sampled at a much higher clip once they reach the sample sites in Canada and the west coast of the US.  The southern stream system is approaching the west coast now, that will get sampled on a much larger scale in the next 12 hours, and the arctic jet stream shortwave will set the standard for this storm system, especially if it digs much more than what guidance shows.  I predict the 12z EURO today or 00z tonight will change with regards to the southern stream shortwave.  That is where the models change their ideas of the atmospheric makeup when shortwaves become better sampled.

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15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've never understood people getting angry over the weather. Afterall none of us have any control over the weather. As we both realize SNE can have some great winters and some winters which are terrible for those of us who enjoy cold and snow. 

Weenie strong
Pro mets can't tell us we're wrong
Searching models for so long
All of us knowing
Snow is a battlefield

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Look at the difference at H5 between the latest GFS and EURO at hour 72, that arctic shortwave is faster on the EURO in moving out of the arctic circle in NE Manitoba, while the GFS and NAM are more in line with a slower arctic jet, this could either allow for a better phase, or a system that fails to phase.  The next two images of the EURO will be interesting to see how it handles the yet to be sampled Arctic s/w

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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd be curious to see what a measurement from Monadnock would do for our map. Currently we only have a few reports of 2-5" in the area, but almost all of those are low elevation.

I was wondering what the new ipswich, temple , francestown corridor had at 1k. Francestown prolly the most bc that 0c 925 contour was probably south of them longer

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Look at the difference at H5 between the latest GFS and EURO at hour 72, that arctic shortwave is faster on the EURO in moving out of the arctic circle in NE Manitoba, while the GFS and NAM are more in line with a slower arctic jet, this could either allow for a better phase, or a system that fails to phase.  The next two images of the EURO will be interesting to see how it handles the yet to be sampled Arctic s/w

Nevermind, I was watching the wrong shortwave, it is in line with the GFS and NAM so far, but the EURO has the southern energy sticking over the west coast.  The baroclinic zone is way too far offshore, I don't like how this is happening, no big storm likely from this run for the 5th.

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14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Nevermind, I was watching the wrong shortwave, it is in line with the GFS and NAM so far, but the EURO has the southern energy sticking over the west coast.  The baroclinic zone is way too far offshore, I don't like how this is happening, no big storm likely from this run for the 5th.

Lol you are looking so hard to find a way for this to work out...you're all mixed up.  Holy Sh*t James....Just Chill for god sakes.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I agree Will, looks more probable than not at this time.

Pump the breaks dude...its 8-9 days out...there is basically no setup i can think of where we say it is "more probable than not" that a storm will hit us with that type of lead time.

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The 120 hour to me looks like a prelude to a NJ modeler but just needs a little bit more in terms of jet mechanics...  

Which overall is a different look entirely compared to prior cycles.  The earlier runs had more southern isotach curvature/wind maxing in the TV region at 120+ but this solution seems to have finally, entirely committed to abandoning that - which may very well have been trended since yesterday ... But now, we have this weakly negative tilting deal up around Chi-town with some cyclonic surface response, albeit weakly so... end upon SE of CC a day later.  Interesting to see that wave space just sort of swap out like that over the last day. 

As Nick and I were discussing yesterday (and still appears to be the case...) there may actually be more large --> small scale support for something in the D8-12 range. There is a less than obvious if still suggested mass-field restoration look there..  As other's also note, that's usually when/where things tend to happen, at those modulation intervals.  blah blah.. seems like playing this tape for 10 years now but luckily for us, these physical properties of our world take billions of years to break down, huh ...

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