40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: For whom? It never looked promising for me when I looked at it prior to Thanksgiving. NNE looked ok. I said a week ago...as in the weekend before last. I blogged regarding the potential within a long wave context...at that point, I wasn't concerned with whether it was best suited for Concord, NH or Concord, MA. But there is a reason why I haven't followed up on it, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks Do we have a choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 4 hours ago, dendrite said: It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened. We hit -9F the morning after Thanksgiving here. I mused to my wife that we might have set our low for the winter in November. It's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 My guess is 3-4 big time cold plunges this winter. One down. Next one perhaps before the pattern relaxes mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro is frigid by day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Hmmm....that 12/4-12/7 period is starting to look interesting on today's models (GFS, EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Snowy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 EURO and GFS are looking for the 6-8th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Still d13 but disaster by d15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 And if tomorrow it's day 12 and 14 then maybe it gains a lil traction? No worries...it's just weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah def keep an eye on 12/6-12/7ish. Hopefully we moderate the look by 12/12 shown on the ensembles. They lost the -NAO too in the LR which would exacerbate that bad PAC look. We will keep a close eye on the -EPO before that. If we can develop a bit of an EPO block, then the pattern shift could be muted quite a bit. Those are not easy to bully out that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Still d13 but disaster by d15. It will get pushed back to Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It will get pushed back to Christmas eve. And lock in...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah def keep an eye on 12/6-12/7ish. Hopefully we moderate the look by 12/12 shown on the ensembles. They lost the -NAO too in the LR which would exacerbate that bad PAC look. We will keep a close eye on the -EPO before that. If we can develop a bit of an EPO block, then the pattern shift could be muted quite a bit. Those are not easy to bully out that quickly. Also, the heights seem to be shuffling quickly so it doesn’t seem like a stable lock it in pattern. We’re goood through d12 and sensible wx probably d16-18. Long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Also, the heights seem to be shuffling quickly so it doesn’t seem like a stable lock it in pattern. We’re goood through d12 and sensible wx probably d16-18. Long ways off. Normally, seeing that show up in Dec. would paralyze me with fear, but I'm confident in the background conditions this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Normally, seeing that show up in Dec. would paralyze me with fear, but I'm confident in the background conditions this season. Checking back in after never checking out. You left all your luggage up in your room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Checking back in after never checking out. You left all your luggage up in your room. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? You said you were checking out for awhile , earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You said you were checking out for awhile , earlier today With regard to serious analysis...I said I'd still be chatting. The statement was qualified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 At least you guy's don't live in the Mid ATL where it gets late early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, Dan76 said: At least you guy's don't live in the Mid ATL where it gets late early. I Would consider from about Monmouth county NJ north and east closer to NE then MID ATL. That’s certainly been the case the last decade. I think it’s inevitable we see a relaxation. But a full on coast to coast torch ala 01/02 is extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 And don’t forget 2001-02 had heat and dryness from September on. Same for 2011-12 save for 2 weeks near and after then Halloween storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 We'll see if the weeklies cancel December soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll see if the weeklies cancel December soon enough. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll see if the weeklies cancel December soon enough. If the eps is any indication they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 ah its all a crapshoot sometimes. who knows. maybe the blocking fizzles, or maybe it is more stubborn. I will say one thing though...the past few years have shown us to respect the -EPO. It has maintained and gotten us cold many times, even in patterns unfavorable for many in the East. And it has brought a lot of snow. I'm not sure I trust it being established and then leaving quickly. All we know at this point is that it has been a stellar start for many, and there is potential for more. And there is a deep snow pack building to our N and NW and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 We have to endure the MJO in an unfavorable location for a week or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 They did. I suppose verbatim it's more of a milder Canada instead of a SE ridge, but I know Pacific puke when I see it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: They did. I suppose verbatim it's more of a milder Canada instead of a SE ridge, but I know Pacific puke when I see it, The Weeklies weeks 3-4?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, leo2000 said: The Weeklies weeks 3-4?. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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