December Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ryan Allen is warming up...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is anyone surprised? Christmas time recently has been horrible for winter weather. I don’t count the junk coating we got last year as “good”.

I knew when we were cold and snow in mid November that we were definitely cooked for Christmas 

My hood got a nice, plowable snowfall last year.  Best Christmas one in years

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My hood got a nice, plowable snowfall last year.  Best Christmas one in years

Almost 2.5” here and mostly in one hour. That was the most special morning I can recall. Overachiever. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost 2.5” here and mostly in one hour. That was the most special morning I can recall. Overachiever. 

My entry last year. 

2017-12-25

0.20

Christmas Mehrical

[CoastalWx]

In the good news department, the euro ensembles have what seems to be a few chances of overrunning after Christmas. Nice high pressure to the north even on the mean.  Also, the stratosphere is getting socked around. This isn’t typical stratospheric voodoo that we always see from the typical twitter folks...it’s a legit and substantial warming. It’s getting beyond 50mb and below so start watching H5 changes in guidance. Hopefully anyways. 

[MJO812]

December isn't a winter month

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

My entry last year. 

2017-12-25

0.20

Christmas Mehrical

Yeah I think you just missed it. My folks didn’t get much either. It was a tail end band. 

[CoastalWx]

When Snow88 mails it in, time to tune up the blower. 

[tnt]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah I don't think we can avoid that one like this last modeled cutter that got beaten down in time.  Friday looks like it would take a miracle to avoid.

Our 6-week pattern of cold and snow is coming to an end...started in October but it was a great run of near record cold 30-day periods and record mountain snow depths.  Time to reshuffle the deck it looks like.  

Thats about right too...patterns seem to like to lock for 4-6 weeks but hard to sustain that type of cold for so long.  Like Ginxy posted a few days ago, MPV had its coldest average max temps in 68 years of records between 11/10-12/10 or something like that.  Can't do that forever.  Late fall early winter pattern of yore.  Put it in the sea scrolls.

What a bummer.  Family ski trip to stowe - skiing sat, sun, mon.  Been talking up all the snow up there, all the great tree skiing, and promising ending the day with the Bruce trail > matterhorn.  

Oh well - best hope for off trail and natural stuff I suppose is, saturday stays on the warm side and doesn't rain too long.  Looks like everything will freeze by Sunday.

Knew it couldn't last, but was hoping to would't turn until X-mas.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a furnace. 564 thicknesses and 14C At 850. Kevin would be calling for 90 at BDL if it were July.    The snow in November was fun, but good riddance and time to reshuffle. 

Ha I hear your frustrations.  Cold and not snowy is not a fun pattern for most winter weather enthusiasts.  More frustrating than just a mild pattern because you know you have no shot anyways in that.  

Reshuffle and see what we get in January.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha I hear your frustrations.  Cold and not snowy is not a fun pattern for most winter weather enthusiasts.  More frustrating than just a mild pattern because you know you have no shot anyways in that.  

Reshuffle and see what we get in January.

Yeah.  It’s been great for you guys and not to take anything away from that. But I suppose we need some bad luck too. Haven’t had much of that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In the good news department, the euro ensembles have what seems to be a few chances of overrunning after Christmas. Nice high pressure to the north even on the mean.  Also, the stratosphere is getting socked around. This isn’t typical stratospheric voodoo that we always see from the typical twitter folks...it’s a legit and substantial warming. It’s getting beyond 50mb and below so start watching H5 changes in guidance. Hopefully anyways. 

Glass half full dept!

[JBinStoughton]

I hope this isn’t becoming another move the goalposts winter. It’s coming - wait for it. No, NOW it’s coming. Oh, well, now...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Glass half full dept!

When even I think the strat stuff is impressive, it says a lot. Most of the strat nonsense on twitter is garbage.  I’m not sure how it will manifest at 500, but hell of a lot better than a black hole there.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn’t typical stratospheric voodoo that we always see from the typical twitter folks...it’s a legit and substantial warming. It’s getting beyond 50mb and below so start watching H5 changes in guidance. Hopefully anyways.

Coming from you that is indeed good news.

I still feel this will work its way into the pattern, but it does take time. 

Whether it drives big changes or only enhances a "better " pattern, well I am not sure yet. But, like you said, it is real and it is happening.  

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s hope at least one of them is on to the right idea....

[Southshorewx]

West Boylston 36° sprinkling pingers 

[weathafella]

All the ensembles improved overnight.   Keeping that dateline ridge intact with some nao is helpful.   All with chances of snow north of Snow88 land post Christmas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Take a look at that graphic.. it spells M-I-L-L-E-R-B.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Pattern looks terrible for the rest of this month

It will turn around eventually, Decembers have been rough as of late though. 

March, not Morch, on the other hand has been roaring lately. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cool read:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2018-enso-update-relationship-advice

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase.

To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted.  The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter.

Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years.  It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO.  Why?

Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game.

Without it, wind doesn't blow.  It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind.  Big gradient = big wind.

That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. 

There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere.  If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that "no where" means, less resultant forcing. 

It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at that graphic.. it spells M-I-L-L-E-R-B.

Hopefully not late developers 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase.

To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted.  The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter.

Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years.  It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO.  Why?

Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game.

Without it, wind doesn't blow.  It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind.  Big gradient = big wind.

That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. 

There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere.  If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that no where go means, less resulting impacts. 

It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

It's interesting to note that subsurface ENSO has higher atmospheric correlation than SSTs, and even MEI. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully not late developers 

Hopefully. Should be a good amount inside the BM tracks without a -epo/+pna on roids, at least.

[Eduardo]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase.

To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted.  The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter.

Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years.  It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO.  Why?

Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game.

Without it, wind doesn't blow.  It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind.  Big gradient = big wind.

That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. 

There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere.  If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that "no where" means, less resultant forcing. 

It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

Been thinking this as well.  I’m by no means a pro, but at an elementary level, it seems like all weather is driven by “gradients,” no?

[78Blizzard]

All I see in our 16 day future is cutter after cutter.  That takes care of December.  Next.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully not late developers 

Some will be, most likely...highest anomalies should be east, but everyone should do well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting thoughts ... delivered through amusing turns of phrase.

To repeat my own hypothesis, I feel that as the Earth's atmosphere continues to warm, the correlations need to be adjusted.  The reason is a very physical one. The entire ENSO discussion is too focused (perhaps) on the SST anomalies, and not enough on "weather" those anomalies should even matter.

Example: The planet survived a mega warm event, historic actually, over the recent six years.  It was documented ... there were comparatively fewer examples of Global anomalies and results, known to correlate with the warm phases of ENSO.  Why?

Well, as I've hammered in the past ... gradient is the whole ball game.

Without it, wind doesn't blow.  It's not complicated... 0 gradient = 0 wind.  Big gradient = big wind.

That very simple baser truism applies at all scales and dimensions of cause-and-effect in nature... including, duh duh dunnn... the effectiveness of the "warm" SST temperatures. 

There's perhaps too much focus on the SST's ... and not enough on the physical relationship between the anomalies and the atmosphere.  If the atmosphere is not providing a heat sink, the heat source has no where to go... and that "no where" means, less resultant forcing. 

It think it's plausible that a modest Modoki ENSO is just simply beneath the atmospheric physical detection of its presence because it's not introducing as much gradients.

Well, I also think its prudent to adhere to traditional weak modoki climo until met with declining rates of success in doing so. So far, I don't see anything wildly deviating from the overall 1968/1977/2004/2014 seasonal flavor.

I get what you are saying, and if this season goes astray, then perhaps we revisit. May help to explain why MEI has been so paltry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hopefully. Should be a good amount inside the BM tracks without a -epo/+pna on roids, at least.

We also should have more NAO assist than 2005 and especially 2015.