TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Am I the only one who doesn’t feel like things are setting up all that great? Long range looks okay to poor, spending on what guidance you use, and our next “threat” is always 10 days away. Hopefully we can change the look after the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Am I the only one who doesn’t feel like things are setting up all that great? Long range looks okay to poor, spending on what guidance you use, and our next “threat” is always 10 days away. Hopefully we can change the look after the new year 2014-2015 didn’t really start until the end of January, so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Everything. Changes. Every. Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said: Everything. Changes. Every. Day. People are born, people die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. Glad we don’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. It's a winter a pattern ... it's just not offering what folks want - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Welcome to a weak modoki el Niño folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 It’s December folks...in an El Niño... time to relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 It's been a nail biter this week watching the PoPs for tonight go from 80% to 0%. Good times, it's what keeps us coming back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: It’s December folks...in an El Niño... time to relax Just let them go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be . Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way . i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January. Just like last storm was suppose fto be s cutter and Sunday also. Stop hugging the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My only comment is long range at this point is utter voodoo and I believe will would concur i want to be clear that I am not trying to take away from the work folks are doing on LR forecasts , not at all. I just believe if a man as smart as Cohen thought he may have figured out the riddle to winter NAO in November and he was wrong, many others on social media could be more confident than the coming forecast verifications determine they should be . Scott mentioned the Nina like look we’re seeing to, not that anyone would call for a Nina just that things are not clear going forward in any way . i believe the NAO-AO stuff is voodoo like past 3 weeks as well Snow is the one that's so far away When I feel the dewpoints enter my veins Never do I want to be cold again And I don't remember why I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Stop hugging the models lawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 No surprise the models are having a hard time right now because we are at the beginning of a polar vortex weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: No surprise the models are having a hard time right now because we are at the beginning of a polar vortex weakening. I wouldn't be overly concerned about something 282 hours out when models can't predict about 3-4 days from now. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 35 minutes ago, leo2000 said: No surprise the models are having a hard time right now because we are at the beginning of a polar vortex weakening. I wonder how accurate those 10 mb temperature 282 hr forecasts are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, Greg said: I wouldn't be overly concerned about something 282 hours out when models can't predict about 3-4 days from now. Patience. He’s saying that’s a good thing in the long run. And weakening of vortex’s isn’t like forcasting the r/s line at 72hr. It’s a big picture hemispheric thought process which affects sensible weather for several weeks after. Some folks are pretty good at the research but models always seem to rush punching the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s saying that’s a good thing in the long run. And weakening of vortex’s isn’t like forcasting the r/s line at 72hr. It’s a big picture hemispheric thought process which affects sensible weather for several weeks after. Some folks are pretty good at the research but models always seem to rush punching the pv. Oh I know, I'm very well aware of what he's looking at but still my coment stands. When you look out that far, honestly, it can't have as much merit. At least not until I or you see much more verification from other reliable model sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 I'm really intrigued with the 21st clipper and southern stream connection storm, potential phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, Greg said: Oh I know, I'm very well aware of what he's looking at but still my coment stands. When you look out that far, honestly, it can't have as much merit. At least not until I or you see much more verification from other reliable model sources. Like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: No surprise the models are having a hard time right now because we are at the beginning of a polar vortex weakening. Coldest in Greenland. Not what we want ideally I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Like? ICON, TVCN, GFS (EPS, GEFS), CMC,.... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Greg said: ICON, TVCN, GFS, CMC,.... etc. 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Like? MAM® Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, Toekneeweather said: MAM I forgot that one, thanks Toekneeweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Coldest in Greenland. Not what we want ideally I think. Ah, No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Greg said: ICON, TVCN, GFS, CMC,.... etc. Crappy op guidance predicting ssw’s...ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Crappy op guidance predicting ssw’s...ok. The ECMFWF is not the only model for prediction. It's only one of the tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2018 Share Posted December 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Coldest in Greenland. Not what we want ideally I think. Would be a meat grinder look verbatim, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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