December Discussion

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Scott, the GFS shows a deep cold air mass just north of the Canada/Maine border in Quebec, if we get a surface high to park over there, there will be a northerly drainage of cold dry air into the storm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Here is the day before the Blizzard struck on Saturday, January 22nd, 2005 12z 500mb analysis.  H5 analysis of the GEFS mean shows a similarity in the H5 fields.  H5 ridging out west is further amplified than 05, the -AO vortex is in a similar position with a -NAO ridge, edging into central Greenland, the surface low should edge southwestward some in later guidance.

[weathafella]

James-pay attention to advice.  If it happens great but it’s a long shot.  Much better shot post 1/1.

[weathafella]

That actually does look similar.  If only it wasn’t 7 weeks earlier...

[Baroclinic Zone]

23 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Here is the day before the Blizzard struck on Saturday, January 22nd, 2005 12z 500mb analysis.  H5 analysis of the GEFS mean shows a similarity in the H5 fields.  H5 ridging out west is further amplified than 05, the -AO vortex is in a similar position with a -NAO ridge, edging into central Greenland, the surface low should edge southwestward some in later guidance.

Using late January as an analog for a storm in early Dec is not wise unless you take into account the antecedent conditions.  Your lower levels are likely to be cooked due to SST ins the 40s.  Your surface temps up to a couple thousand feet would be pretty similar in temp

[78Blizzard]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's climo. The water is in the U40s. You'll need a very cold airmass and verbatim I don't see it yet. At least for all snow. 

Boston water temps are about 48°F, too, so that doesn't help them either.  But I noticed that is the coldest SST for this date in over 10 years, at least.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Boston water temps are about 48°F, too, so that doesn't help them either.  But I noticed that is the coldest SST for this date in over 10 years, at least.

But only an easterly wind would hurt Boston whereby winds from just about every direction hurt the Cape.  You need a pretty cold system in early December to overcome background conditions.

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

But only an easterly wind would hurt Boston whereby winds from just about every direction hurt the Cape.  You need a pretty cold system in early December to overcome background conditions.

I'm getting hurt by 36F SSTs lol. (System already has marginal temperatures.) 

[Hoth]

'05 shortwave was boss.

[dendrite]

CQX hit 31F during the peak of Jan 05 too. I remember BOS dropping 10F in an hour during the height of it once the winds backed enough to the N to get on the other side of the coastal front.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CQX hit 31F during the peak of Jan 05 too. I remember BOS dropping 10F in an hour during the height of it once the winds backed enough to the N to get on the other side of the coastal front.

BOS had a low of -2 but it was 28 at the height.  James isn’t seeing - next week...

[dendrite]

And I'll just add that at d6-7, even with some of the features being vaguely similar the last thing I would do is leap to comparing it to Jan 05. You can probably find a few progs each season where if you squint enough with your rose colored glasses on you can see an analog of the storm of your dreams. I think it's killing James seeing everyone getting so much snow already, but the truth is this kind of run is exceptional and early even for NNE. Just because we're scoring up here it doesn't change climo now and going forward. When forecasting you have to put the brain ahead of the heart.

[Ginx snewx]

Let this stat roll around your noggin.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Fair enough, I was checking the 850mb temps behind the storm, I think once it gets past 70W longitude the storm will create a colder temp scenario for Cape Cod, where the rain could change back to snows, like the 18z GFS showed even with a benchmark track.  Also the SSTs northeast of CHH are cooling at a more steady rate lately, so by the beginning of January we could see colder storms by nature of the cooler SSTs.  Anything other than a NE to NW wind, is bad for snow occurring, like winds out of the direction of East, Southeast, South and Southwest.  Any form of northerly winds can cool the column at a good rate, especially if the heaviest precipitation occurs at nighttime over the Cape and Islands, it will be similar nature to the 13th of March this last winter.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

00z NAM upped the ante with snow forecasted even for Cape Cod December 1st, in the morning hours, NAM has .18" of QPF as snow

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Should we start a thread for a festive snowfall on the evening of the 30th and morning of the 1st of DEC?

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Should we start a thread for a festive snowfall on the evening of the 30th and morning of the 1st of DEC?

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, Hoth said:

 

Let's see if my luck changes, I started a thread for the threat.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let this stat roll around your noggin.

 

On the summit?

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the summit?

Pretty sure their records are kept at the base. I know my bud in Newry at SR is up over 60 and he's about 500 ft lower and 75 miles SW

[weathafella]

January 2005 goes poof at 0z

[SnowHole413]

Cmc is a nice hit for next week

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

January 2005 goes poof at 0z

Were you around here in 68 69

[78Blizzard]

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

January 2005 goes poof at 0z

CMC gets better with each run, while GFS is all over the place run to run.  Just saying.  Not that I'm depending on the Canadians.

Even the 12/9 system went from OTS @ 18z to a cutter now, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Cameron S is getting it done at his place in Gorham 27 new

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watch the ridging over AK next week, and how quickly and how much if any of the PV can get involved with our system.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/snowy-first-week-of-meteorological.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

January 2005 goes poof at 0z

This has enormous potential if enough of that PV drops in the backside of this system at just the right time....but odds favor a decent event, I think....especially east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is closer.

Man, the PV lobe really wants to play ball this time, but the timing is just off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I suspect its going to be one or the other....either they phase and its a major storm mid week, or the n stream may incite something itself closer to the next weekend, which looks more likely on the EURO. Looks like Tips compressed geopotential medium may be an issue, though...shred city.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suspect its going to be one or the other....either they phase and its a major storm mid week, or the n stream may incite something itself closer to the next weekend, which looks more likely on the EURO. Looks like Tips compressed geopotential medium may be an issue, though...shred city.

Yeah, models are having a tough time right now.