Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another system squashed by an annoying s/w we like Squash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Yea, I don't think you want that thing to spread its wings and fly in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 We don't like 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wouldn’t have expected it but it may come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: we like Squash Nam tends to be a touch over amped but right idea potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Holy Greenland block near xmas on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Holy Greenland block near xmas on the gfs Nice period to watch actually. Additionally models have really backed down on what was supposed to be a torch period. BN has ruled since mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Holy Greenland block near xmas on the gfs We don’t want to much block...or it’s congratulations VA, NC again. Give us a -EPO/favorable pacific and a lil blocking and we can work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We don’t want to much block...or it’s congratulations VA, NC again. Give us a -EPO/favorable pacific and a lil blocking and we can work with that. That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969. Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination. Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking. Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall... with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Take a look at 2010... it can hurt sometimes if it’s too much. NAO is overated imo. Sure there are times like 69 when it’s helped make things even better, but I’d rather not have too much block..some block, sure. But not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Take a look at 2010... it can hurt sometimes if it’s too much. NAO is overated imo. Sure there are times like 69 when it’s helped make things even better, but I’d rather not have too much block..some block, sure. But not too much. I understand it can hurt sometimes...that was your original point. It's not ideal, but if I had to choose between no blocking and Feb 2010, I'd take Feb 2010 in a heartbeat. You don't seem to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 nice .25 inch coating today...kinda cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination. Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking. Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall... with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England. True..yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok what day lol, its dry there Wondering about this next storm cycle fri-sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me. Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt. But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Too much -NAO is never good but some of the big ones for us had a least moderate intensity ones such as Feb '69, Feb'78, Jan '05. Things like that make weenies yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me. Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt. But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO... Pacific isn’t that favorable in a gradient pattern. You more or less need some luck too. I guess I understand where you are coming from, but beware being on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's not necessarily true...especially with an RNA. Take a look at February 1969. That was quite the storm back in February, 1969. I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time. I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Too much NAO is never good but some of the big ones for us had a least moderate intensity ones such as Feb '69, Feb'78, Jan '05. Things like that make weenies yore. A moderate -NAO certainly can help produce a coastal crawler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That was quite the storm back in February, 1969. I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time. I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow? What you just described sounds a little more like the Blizzard of 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I get that totally...but that’s just my opinion on too much NAO. If I had to choose between MAJOR blocking or a favorable pacific..I take favorable pacific/-EPO every time...but that’s just me. Sure, if everything lines up perfectly, and the flow slows like Tip eluded to, then sure it can enhance things no doubt. But I’ll take my chances with a favorable pacific..without much in the way of NAO... Yea, agreed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just now, Greg said: That sounds a little more like the Blizzard of 1978. Correct...Harv nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Harvey Leonard is Legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pacific isn’t that favorable in a gradient pattern. You more or less need some luck too. I guess I understand where you are coming from, but beware being on the wrong side. Very true. There’s never the one size fits all set up as you obviously know...I look at it as a marriage of sorts...different things in different quantities in different set ups...can produce, or Not produce?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That was quite the storm back in February, 1969. I remember trudging through the drifts from the subway stop to the Sears warehouse in Dorchester where I was a catalog buyer at the time. I wonder if that was the storm that Don Kent severely underestimated, predicting flurries or just a chance of snow? Yeah...not sure if Kent issued a bad forecast for 1969, but he had major updating to do for the 1978 storm. As others have said, Harvey really scored on that one and cemented his place in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Very true. There’s never the one size fits all set up as you obviously know...I look at it as a marriage of sorts...different things in different quantities in different set ups...can produce, or Not produce?? I’ll preface this by saying I’m not being negative. Just saying it could be a few inches of snow—>cutter—>few inches of snow—> cutter. We don’t know yet. We will have some cold air to play with so that’s good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 2011-2012 ain’t walking through that door, so there’s that to be thankful for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll preface this by saying I’m not being negative. Just saying it could be a few inches of snow—>cutter—>few inches of snow—> cutter. We don’t know yet. We will have some cold air to play with so that’s good. Lol, it’s all good Scott. :-). Are you referring to the winter as a whole above, or the time around and just after the holidays?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah...not sure if Kent issued a bad forecast for 1969, but he had major updating to do for the 1978 storm. As others have said, Harvey really scored on that one and cemented his place in history. Mark Roesethal nailed it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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