December Discussion

[DavisStraight]

Sneaky cold this morning, I was at 15, forecast called for 21.

[Chrisrotary12]

IF precipitation is able to get into SNE on Sunday, there's a sneaky freezing rain signal in there. Developing 1028 mb HP near Caribou gives rise to a northeasterly surface cold drain, while we are absolutely cooked at 850. Last nights NAM (and GFSFV3) showed it. Something small to watch for. Sounding approximate location of KASH. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could do well, comparatively speaking, in a set up of this nature....if we get anything.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Flurries here, 27F.

[ma blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

IF precipitation is able to get into SNE on Sunday, there's a sneaky freezing rain signal in there. Developing 1028 mb HP near Caribou gives rise to a northeasterly surface cold drain, while we are absolutely cooked at 850. Last nights NAM (and GFSFV3) showed it. Something small to watch for. Sounding approximate location of KASH. 

 

I've been thinking the same for a couple days but its def an unorthodox ice set-up .. not sure how widespread it will be but prob something to watch for the interior.

[weathafella]

That looks icy Sunday on gfs.  925s are rather cold.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I've been thinking the same for a couple days but its def an unorthodox ice set-up .. not sure how widespread it will be but prob something to watch for the interior.

That high is in place with decent CAD in the interior. Throw a little precip in and voila. Previous GFS runs were cold enough to wetbulb midlevels down to snow. I haven't looked this morning yet.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That looks icy Sunday on gfs.  925s are rather cold.

Yeah maybe even high thickness snow if we can get deeper lift inland. More like pike north though. Definitely a CAD look farther inland. It might be just crud as this system looks meager and suppressed. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs slowly losing next week. Man just a wee bit of an earlier phase would be a nice event. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem that frustrates many pros like myself, is the lack of listening or believing and this constant ACATT approach. I love snow more than anyone, but I'm not going to make shit up because I don't like to hear about rain or mild weather. However, that's what many of you do. You don't want to hear about anything that is non-snow. It gets tiring. 

It's why if the long range op run shows a blizzard it's just that looks sweet and the forum moves on.  An op run shows a cutter in the long range and it gets dissected six ways to Sunday.  

I don't think it's that people don't want to hear about rain and warmth...they want to hear *how it could snow*...what needs to happen for an improvement.  It's how Bastardi made a living back in the early internet weather days.  Even if a cutter was coming he could find a way that it *could* snow....not that it would snow but that if XYZ happens it could snow.  And that subtle distinction in how he approached it got him thousands and thousands of viewers.  

Because what's the next best thing to snow?  Thinking there's a chance it could snow no matter what the progs show lol.

<end tippy psych post>

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That looks icy Sunday on gfs.  925s are rather cold.

We had an ice event last year just before xmas...I think 12/23?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Snowing right now in Northampton.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We had an ice event last year just before xmas...I think 12/23?

Yeah I was about to post how the d4-5 progs were a furnace.  I remember we were looking at the NAM cad at last year’s gtg.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could do well, comparatively speaking, in a set up of this nature....if we get anything.

Kevin, what I mean is the high is north of ME....which is a good spot to drain into my area. Relatively close proximity to source region.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like this run's headin' for an xmas bomb ... we'll see.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kevin, what I mean is the high is north of ME....which is a good spot to drain into my area. Relatively close proximity to source region.

You are about to be annexed by NNE on the NH border.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's why if the long range op run shows a blizzard it's just that looks sweet and the forum moves on.  An op run shows a cutter in the long range and it gets dissected six ways to Sunday.  

I don't think it's that people don't want to hear about rain and warmth...they want to hear *how it could snow*...what needs to happen for an improvement.  It's how Bastardi made a living back in the early internet weather days.  Even if a cutter was coming he could find a way that it *could* snow....not that it would snow but that if XYZ happens it could snow.  And that subtle distinction in how he approached it got him thousands and thousands of viewers.  

Because what's the next best thing to snow?  Thinking there's a chance it could snow no matter what the progs show lol.

<end tippy psych post>

Yeah that’s not my approach. That’s still trying to polish a terd.  I’m not going to give false hope only to hear more complaining when it doesn’t happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s not my approach. That’s still trying to polish a terd.  I’m not going to give false hope only to hear more complaining when it doesn’t happen. 

This is why I call you Mazirotti....he takes the same approach, always accounting for what can go wrong and almost expecting it to until verification.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I call you Mazirotti....he takes the same approach, always accounting for what can go wrong and almost expecting it to until verification.

It’s just glass half empty mentality. Some look at the glass empty and some half full. Do you approach things on life positively or negatively 

[moneypitmike]

moderate, lifte-threatening weenie flakes in GC  Didn't even notice it....grounds whitened.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just glass half empty mentality. Some look at the glass empty and some half full. Do you approach things on life positively or negatively 

Well, I think that there is value in that in that it maintains objectivity....lets face it, something goes awry the vast majority of the time, or we'd have 2-3' events weekly.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You are about to be annexed by NNE on the NH border.

Actually we'd prefer to just make Salem part of Mass and SNE.

[#NoPoles]

Well, look at the radar, it is the actual tangible beginning of the relaxation. Im 100% positive I was only one who made about about an all out armageddon torch with rains and mud all the up to quebec. And i was joking.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I call you Mazirotti....he takes the same approach, always accounting for what can go wrong and almost expecting it to until verification.

That’s not true. I’ll always give my opinion. It’s just that more often than not we don’t always have -10 departures and 3’ snow bombs so it will appear to skew negative.    Always being negative will have its own issues and is also not fair. For instance this period of boredom probably has been hit harder by me more than anyone. But, it was easily seen weeks out and I was just giving a heads up. However, the weenies did not want to hear it and started getting combative so yeah, I started giving it back. I’ll always acknowledge uncertainty as well. For instance next week is probably lost, but a small chance we could get an inch or two if we phased in time. But gun to weenie says no.

[SnoSki14]

If you believe the Gfs Op, then it continues to show little snow for most. 

Also it's interesting that the last major system (SE Mauler) and the upcoming one are/will be suppressed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like this run's headin' for an xmas bomb ... we'll see.

Or not see...

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem that frustrates many pros like myself, is the lack of listening or believing and this constant ACATT approach. I love snow more than anyone, but I'm not going to make shit up because I don't like to hear about rain or mild weather. However, that's what many of you do. You don't want to hear about anything that is non-snow. It gets tiring. 

You professionals definitely have it tough in this weird forum format.  The problem is that even threads like this aren’t just for data dissemination and discussion, there are these weird social club and weather anxiety therapy components as well as social media-tier drive-by weenie comments that are allowed.  My solution would be to give the weenies immutable probabilistic forecast numbers and be done with it so they couldn’t twist all the words around.  But, that’s not really how things work around here, nor do I get the impression that it’s actually what they want to hear.

[powderfreak]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s not my approach. That’s still trying to polish a terd.  I’m not going to give false hope only to hear more complaining when it doesn’t happen. 

Yeah I hear ya.  I've always leaned your style.  Most skiers I know have always appreciated the frankness of that line of thinking... depends on what you are trying to get out of "weather."  If you just want to plan your life by it, there's no need to sugarcoat it.

I do feel there are a lot of weather hobbyists who love snow and come as an escape from their normal lives... they get negative/bad news all day long from the media and whatever, they don't want to come online in their free time and hear more depressing news.  They'd rather focus on the "chance" (like Dumb and Dumber, so you're saying there's a chance) of a positive outcome than the overwhelming likelihood of the flip side of the coin.  

Thats how Bastardi made bank...exploiting that sliver of a chance people want to know exists for a better outcome.  Instead of "Yup it's gonna rain 2 inches and be 50F on the East Coast as a low bombs out over SYR" he'd play the "If all the caribou in Canada start running towards the east, it might be enough to push the storm to the coast and deliver a heavy snowfall for places like State College, Hudson Valley, Worcester and Portland."  

And people love that optimism no matter how ridiculous it is haha.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I think that there is value in that in that it maintains objectivity....lets face it, something goes awry the vast majority of the time, or we'd have 2-3' events weekly.

 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not true. I’ll always give my opinion. It’s just that more often than not we don’t always have -10 departures and 3’ snow bombs so it will appear to skew negative.    Always being negative will have its own issues and is also not fair. For instance this period of boredom probably has been hit harder by me more than anyone. But, it was easily seen weeks out and I was just giving a heads up. However, the weenies did not want to hear it and started getting combative so yeah, I started giving it back. I’ll always acknowledge uncertainty as well. For instance next week is probably lost, but a small chance we could get an inch or two if we phased in time. But gun to weenie says no.

 

[EastonSN+]

Not liking the NAO and PNA direction long range.