MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: @ORH_wxman Should we put any stock into what the 12z GFS OP at H5 was showing in the LR? Its being discussed in our thread... but it looks extremely ugly Look at the gefs this far out. Don't worry about the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, yoda said: You would think it would show a good snow with that look for you guys... but the surface maps show barely any precip at all... maybe it will take a while to respond? I will take it at this range, would favor the east side of things Miller B pop. That's a great cold pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Battle brewing between GFS and its son....if my memory is correct, I believe the FV3 was too far south for the November 15th storm in the 3-5 day period. Just something to keep an eye on as we head further into winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 The gfs op is creating more pacific and STJ acation with troughing out west. The ensembles don’t really show that. They seem to keep the troughing to the east. While the gfs op may be in the realm of solutions, I wouldn’t quite worry about it. I do think the SE ridge could flex at times so I would be concerned for a time in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Post 12/25. And don’t be crying if we still aren’t quite in it at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The gfs op is creating more pacific and STJ acation with troughing out west. The ensembles don’t really show that. They seem to keep the troughing to the east. While the gfs op may be in the realm of solutions, I wouldn’t quite worry about it. I do think the SE ridge could flex at times so I would be concerned for a time in the MA. Yea, I think we will have some bouts of RNA this month....subtle shades of 1968-'69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Both the GFS and FV3 like a nice coastal for Christmas... its nice and juicy... but the cold is marginal. You guys might do better than us down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 12/20 is the date transition goes into motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post 12/25. And don’t be crying if we still aren’t quite in it at that time. GEFS is the 20th on, will be a big fail on its part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 12/20 is the date transition goes into motion What does your father, winter wolfie think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GEFS is the 20th on, will be a big fail on its part. Given EPO cold dump I would have higher confidence pushing it back. That’s my reasoning. While it could be after 12-20, I feel that’s risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does your father, winter wolfie think? Jo mama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Jo mama? Wolfie owns you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Greg said: Guys there's still time to get a sneak attack of 4-8" and even an 8-12" storm. Things can happen around here. It's only Dec 12, right now. There's just as a good a chance we pull off some 50-60F days. It's only Dec 12th afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Euro caved. Cold Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euro caved. Cold Tuesday Windex event on Monday for Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Yay, more useless cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still deeply skeptical but a few inches would go a long way for some in this subforum. Thoughts on the potential tomorrow? Looks like the guidance is starting to like a period of light snow in parts of SNE tomorrow. Very low ceiling but maybe C-1 if we’re lucky? Barely any qpf to work with. Yeah tomorrow would see some light snow. Esp tomorrow evening. Best chance would be SW CT up through Berkshires. The sfc high keeps low levels pretty dry further east. Cant rule out a coating to maybe an inch if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yay, more useless cold. It's a one day cold shot in the midst of a torchy pattern. But if it comes in slightly more aggressive it would be accompanied by a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Yeah 19th already getting mild. I don’t really buy the gfs op for more than just some shsn, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's a one day cold shot in the midst of a torchy pattern. But if it comes in slightly more aggressive it would be accompanied by a couple inches of snow. Hopefully. I am bored sick from this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Euro is extremely extremely close to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Euro is extremely extremely close to snow Agree. I thought it was a pretty big cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Agree. I thought it was a pretty big cave. The reinforcing antecedent air mass has me wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Technically sub freezing all of Tuesday and Wednesday on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully. I am bored sick from this pattern. December of bore continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 More pinching on both ends of torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: December of bore continues Babies in September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Babies in September? Babies from bore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Babies from bore? That’s how I was taught... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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