40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the atmosphere isnt even behaving like an el nino right now lol, this looks way more like a 1968-69 or 2004-05 type el nino to me than it does 2002-03. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 The GEFS continue to move away from the snow idea. The op run looks on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2018 Author Share Posted December 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFS continue to move away from the snow idea. The op run looks on its own. I will reserve my "this winter sucks" post until after 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s sitting up there and will be there for two weeks in total. Post 12/25. Listen to your son. Lol. Ok my boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 December 26th, Post 12/25. My son is brilliant!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s sitting up there and will be there for two weeks in total. Post 12/25. Listen to your son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Lol. Ok my boy I only say that just in case we get something ugly with cold diving south in the Plains. Otherwise it may start a couple of days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 348hr blizzard. awesome....can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Are we still pretending this mild pattern isn't happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Gradient pattern in the long range. Hopefully we’re on the cold side. EPS says be no further south than SNE. Precarious to me. Overall big differences between gfs and euro family. The pipe dream is gfs/GEFS is right. Gefs has been way better than the eps 2 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said: You mean the same eps that parked a one eyed pig over Alaska for two weeks and canceled winter two weeks ago?? You guys sure get hung up on an ensemble that has not done very well this cold season. I agree. Eps are already correcting to a colder solution in the long range. I have no clue what's wrong with it but it's doing awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are we still pretending this mild pattern isn't happening? No but it's not going to be a long stretch like once predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Coming in starting around the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Are we still pretending this mild pattern isn't happening? Is it not the very features and tropical forcing causing this warm up , the same players involved in the demise of the SPV? I thought it was based on precursor pattern. The warm up itself creates its on desctruction given enough time. I also read that tropical forcing itself it very much involved in what is going on up North and of course other factors as well, like early season low sea ice, pressure patterns, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: No but it's not going to be a long stretch like once predicted. We had some claiming it would be just a few days and be gone by the 17-18th. This is going to be over a week...and could be longer if we don't get a favorable storm track just prior to Christmas. For some reason, if it's not 60+, people seem to think the pattern is not mild. We will come back to verification numbers before Xmas and see what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 ZGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We had some claiming it would be just a few days and be gone by the 17-18th. This is going to be over a week...and could be longer if we don't get a favorable storm track just prior to Christmas. For some reason, if it's not 60+, people seem to think the pattern is not mild. We will come back to verification numbers before Xmas and see what happened. Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Coming in starting around the 20th Patience pays. We are prepping for a special stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, Zach’s Pop said: Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. Name names rather then beating around the bush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Rolled snake eyes in a supposed great pattern earlier this month. I'll take my chances with a less than favorable one. Still see potential in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Nobody said a relaxation wasn’t coming. But some on here were punting the rest of December and early January. We were supposed to have a huge cutter this weekend with howling south winds, sipping adult beverages on the beaches. That isn’t happening either. Outside shot at some snow for a few during this close the shades period. A big fat meh torch. I haven't seen anyone cancel the rest of December. Sounds like hyperbole. Maybe one weenie said it but the discussion to me has been pretty consistent on the last week of December being pretty favorable for winter wx. The bigger point of contention was the period just before that...Dec 18-23 or so. That period looks solidly above average to me now as a whole. Hopefully we're cold again by the 22nd-23rd but no guarantee. This will be a pretty solid mild pattern and we're going to put a monster dent in the monthly negative departures. A colder rain on the weekend may lessen the magnitude of the mild up but even with the storm going south, this period will be quite warm. It's going to be felt especially on the overnight mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I dont understand the angst over a mild period for a week or so. Most winters have a few of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I think what Zacks Pop is meaning is that there was quite a bit of Doom and Gloom a couple weeks back about all kinds of mildness and tropical drinks etc etc....and now the relaxation isn't quite what was being touted a couple weeks back. Sure it's going to be a mild up no doubt, but it has taken on a less severe look than what was first being thought, or what was being said. I realize some of it was trolling/busting chops to the ACATT crew, but that made it seem more severe than it looks to turn out to be at the moment. Anyway, let's hope we score something in a not so good pattern...cuz we got boned in a good pattern at least twice which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I think occasionally you will see a joking or prodding comment in good humor but you need to be able to separate that from the person's actual analysis. I think the general analysis has been pretty clear regarding a relax and probable reload late in the month, perhaps we get a little good luck to make up for some bad luck with a gradient type pattern near the holidays. Seems like some in here want to argue just for argument's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I wouldn't say we can rule out a real furnace day or two yet. That period around dec 19-20 could produce parakeets and pina coladas if we get a good system to our west which has moderate support right now. No way to know about any CAD or redevelopment yet, but keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 This is what I'm referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Looks like we narrowly avoid a 2011-2012 like pattern and stay somewhat wintery up to Christmas. Definitely more mild than we’re used to and definitely 5-10 AN. For about a week. Looks like we go back to BN just in time for hanging up stockings. I think everyone in this forum should take a deep breath and appreciate the lack of AGW future weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Only the GFS op runs, but the mildest on the 16-day periods at Augusta has regressed from low 60s (with 2"+ RA) to low 40s (with small RA/mix events) over the past couple days - still 5-10° AN but the furnace seems to be burning lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is what I'm referring to Gefs is way different Go with the gefs. It has had the hot hand so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is way different Go with the gefs. It has had the hot hand so far this season. Link with the verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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