ariof Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't look at the 12z GGEM. It looked like it might shift south and then … nope! 84 hours out and 500 mi model spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 12z gfs is high end advisory to low end warning for SNE Sunday pm overnite perfectly places high 850/925 cold enough looks like 128 snow storm verbatim thought there was zero cold air and we wanted a miss legit like best care scenario on that run tho .. not saying impossible, but its almost impossible things will have to be timed perfectly to have any chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't look at the 12z GGEM. Don’t believe I ever have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't look at the 12z GGEM. Nobody should be looking at it. It's a garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't look at the 12z GGEM. What a terd performance that one had in the VA mauler whiff event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Don’t believe I ever have SECS on the GFS, A flood on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a terd performance that one had in the VA mauler whiff event. Oh its a POS, But i wanted to mention it because if it showed a blizzard, It would be getting alot of play................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the general consumer ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf They're reporting ENSO neutral with also as you show up here, modest warming the equitorial Pacific ... *however, expectations are for El Nino throughout the next calendar year. Along with supporting data and so forth... My feeling is that too much emphasis has and is been(ing) placed on the summer thru autumn's ENSO status and how it will effect winter. Why? Not complicated really.. As the Hemispheric gradients steepen, that effectively activates the greater forcing tapestry ... (Uh, layout) In other words, neutrality doesn't intuitively suggest whatever we were seeing in those summer ending weeks and through autumn, has to be driving the pattern variances now. If the signal was more apparent earlier on, as the season's descent got under way...then thresholds and trigger points and so forth would have been succeeded and we might see some more obvious, correlated traits emerge. But, ...failing that (in the form of "neutral" - helloooo) gee... I wonder why we keep reading "...looks like Nina" or "...looks like Nino". Maybe it doesn't look like anything. I'm being snarky there a little of course... Yes, the leading atmospheric factors in the total ocean-atmospheric coupled model may try to 'bend' El Nino ...if indeed their "80%" chance parlays. And in that... maybe the winter overall gets better designed later in January ... Before that time, it's probably a coin flip pattern wiggling daily head-ache cornucopia of reasons to be irritable. I still believe that a "Weak" El Nino is going to occur based on what you have just described here. However, if a Nino "Neutral" was to occur, I would lean to something along the lines of 1993/1994 Winter. Not for the snow per se but the gradient of the pattern that may take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Oh its a POS, But i wanted to mention it because if it showed a blizzard, It would be getting alot of play................ I'm not sure it would after the last blizzard failure....I mean, people would mention it, but not sure there would be takers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: SECS on the GFS, A flood on the GGEM. GGEM usually runs too wet and amped, GFS as we all know is a little progressive but closer to reality. Need to get closer in before we can get a decent consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 We talked about the possibility of a late interaction with the n stream. Ever so slowly it’s beginning to show its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure it would after the last blizzard failure....I mean, people would mention it, but not sure there would be takers. It gets mentioned often, But its failures trump them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Greg said: I still believe that a "Weak" El Nino is going to occur based on what you have just described here. However, if a Nino "Neutral" was to occur, I would lean to something along the lines of 1993/1994 Winter. Not for the snow per se but the gradient of the pattern that may take place. I'd take a slightly milder version of that winter....the heavy oes component to that season limited it to just a bit snowier than avg in our area....probably my most overrated winter. Not one truly major event, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, Greg said: GGEM usually runs too wet and amped, GFS as we all know is a little progressive but closer to reality. Need to get closer in before we can get a decent consensus. Well, I wouldn't base any forecast using the GGEM, And i question the GFS as its on its way out so would probably give the FV3 a little more weight then obviously the Euro if it moves in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Gfs looks better by the 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure it would after the last blizzard failure....I mean, people would mention it, but not sure there would be takers. At day 5 it would , last storm was a day 7-10 fantasy for us . Weather was so boring all we had to track was a day 10 blizzard that got to about day 7-8 then shifted , recipe for failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take a slightly milder version of that winter....the heavy oes component to that season limited it to just a bit snowier than avg in our area....probably my most overrated winter. Not one truly major event, either. I agree fully with your statement. Lots of Alberta Clippers slowed down that year with direct hits occuring with 6"-12". Not bad at the end with a 90-100" snowfall winter. I don't think the heart of our viewing area would mind that at all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I wouldn't punt anything at all. This going under us is a saving grace for ski areas, huge huge snow making bases all over even southern locales. Bluebird wx near 40, I mean cmon no better, ice skating and skiing for you winter enthusiasts should be awesome, go go go Yup Early ski season has been phenomenal, looks like the skating crowd N of the Pike should be in good shape, prob S of it too for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 40 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: it's you (or the data source/type). Weak arse as I thought, neutral to slightly above, predictions have it dropping pretty quickly too. The atmosphere is decoupled too. IDK if there will be any Nino influence this winter That's OK because Nino has the lowest correlation scores in New England of the major teleconnections, lets pump up that -EPO and then we will talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Greg said: I agree fully with your statement. Lots of Alberta Clippers slowed down that year with direct hits occuring with 6"-12". Not bad at the end with a 90-100" snowfall winter. I don't think the heart of our viewing area would mind that at all right now. We got 78.5", Greg. Boston had 90-100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 The 12z GFS was run from Hippy's basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Weak arse as I thought, neutral to slightly above, predictions have it dropping pretty quickly too. The atmosphere is decoupled too. IDK if there will be any Nino influence this winter That's OK because Nino has the lowest correlation scores in New England of the major teleconnections, lets pump up that -EPO and then we will talk. I think weak el nino is a pretty definitive signal for big snows around here. Snowiest ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think weak el nino is a pretty definitive signal for big snows around here. Snowiest ENSO state. Yes but fortunately for us the influence lies elsewhere, contributing factor yes, predictive outcomes based on state, sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Storm signal continues near Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The 12z GFS was run from Hippy's basement Nice 12"+ IMBY In 6 hours it will be 2" of rain, or dry Spin the wheel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Nice 12"+ IMBY In 6 hours it will be 2" of rain, or dry Spin the wheel Best op run in days lol. #keeptherainsouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The 12z GFS was run from Hippy's basement toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yes but fortunately for us the influence lies elsewhere, contributing factor yes, predictive outcomes based on state, sometimes. ? I mean, the forcing associated with weak el nino is directly responsible, if that is what you mean....sure. We are still going to verify weal el nino, anyway imo.....not sure where the confusion is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 How quickly one snowy gfs run changes the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nice 12"+ IMBY In 6 hours it will be 2" of rain, or dry Spin the wheel Spin the wheel of gutless storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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