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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have a one week window for the rest of this month...holiday week.

I'm not comparing this to 2010 but look what happened that month

A lot of near misses and then bam, Dec 26 2010

A storm near Christmas keeps showing up but the details are all up in the air at this time.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You know what's funny

Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great .

Maybe the original forecasts were right

I'm very happy with my forecast for the month....I think that I had near normal temps, biased cold early, and mild later....thought we'd have a window for snows early, which we did, and whiffed. Grinch looks on cue, as predicted.

I also mentioned an RNA and gradient potential for a bit, which has been hinted at in the long range ensembles...we'll see.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snow88 said:

I'm not comparing this to 2010 but look what happened that month

A lot of near misses and then bam, Dec 26 2010

A storm near Christmas keeps showing up but the details are all up in the air at this time.

I'm not selling any of that....nothing has changed as far as the season goes....just bored.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not selling any of that....nothing has changed as far as the season goes....just bored.

Everyone is bored in the northeast

Yes we did get several inches of snow last month but anytime you see a big snowstorm miss to the south is heartbreaking.

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted

Compared to lots of Decembers in the past, even the zonality coming up is nothing too sad. Don’t know why all the angst in here seems to be negative. 

All the mets are saying patience will pay off. Sometimes there’s no hope in sight.

I’m calling for 1 ft of accumulations inland by New Years. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather that. The last thing that I need is more heavy rain/high dews and 30mph wind gusts....keep it.

Agreed.  Nothing worse than a cold windswept rain.   No one wins.   I'd rather dry than that.    Or just drier...Things to do, people to see.

I'm close to punting the month, but not yet

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  Nothing worse than a cold windswept rain.   No one wins.   I'd rather dry than that.    Or just drier...Things to do, people to see.

I'm close to punting the month, but not yet

I wouldn't punt anything at all. This going under us is a saving grace for ski areas, huge huge snow making bases all over even southern locales. Bluebird wx near 40, I mean cmon no better, ice skating and skiing for you winter enthusiasts should be awesome, go go go

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't punt anything at all. This going under us is a saving grace for ski areas, huge huge snow making bases all over even southern locales. Bluebird wx near 40, I mean cmon no better, ice skating and skiing for you winter enthusiasts should be awesome, go go go

Yea, I don't see the benefit of flooding the region with heavy rains and high dews.

Excessive wind another frequent flyer on the fraud five.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Our screaming sou'easter has morphed into a suppressed bowling ball. Boring begat boring

Fwiw - ...not much probably ... but, that means to me that there are possibilities on the table. That's my focus - not this downtrodden ...almost self-fulfilling prophecy of doom.    

You know ... I traveled through southern New Jersey for a stay ... spending time there in/around the Philly culture prior to a stop at Va. Beach over Thanks Giggedy ... and sampled in their ethos.  I can tell you, Patriot's fans carry no torch that burns as brightly and hot as the self-loathing they have for their NFL team of recognition: the Eagles.  They just one the g-damn SB 10.5 months ago and it's like they've been submerged in Hades poop for eternity .. my god!  

That?  It is heaven compared to the woe-ism that goes on in here at times wrt drama-fixation in the models and more specifically (perhaps) ... winter ilk of weather. Interesting... 

Be that as it may, ... what seems like forever, it won't be long before this is us, 

   

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't punt anything at all. This going under us is a saving grace for ski areas, huge huge snow making bases all over even southern locales. Bluebird wx near 40, I mean cmon no better, ice skating and skiing for you winter enthusiasts should be awesome, go go go

Well you got that right fairly early. And I’m glad you did. The last thing we needed was a pack destroyer In the mountains. Just compare December 15 with current and see where the resorts are at. Pretty incredible start!

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They just one the g-damn SB 10.5 months ago and it's like they've been submerged in Hades poop for eternity .. my god!  

I am rolling on the floor laughing, I was born and raised in Philly and what you said it totally true !!!! 

Philly fans turn on a dime. ........... YO  losers ......heard many times on my South Philly Street.  Once was only 9 months after the Philles won the WS.  very sad       

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, frd said:

Certainly seems the atmosphere is acting more Nina and the SOI has been positive for a long while.

As pointed out this AM by @bluewave it is very uncommon to be going into December with a positive SOI and a weak El Nino.

Also, he mentioned the reason the cutter trended to the SE might have to do with the  + SOI split flow and a stronger Northern stream via the +SOI . I am not sure what to make of it. 

Certainly the SOI was negative back in Sept and Oct a lot, but looking at https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ the trend to me is not impressive.

And I know Ray mentioned yesterday the weak MEI number too. There is more to it than that with forcing , hadley cells, etc. but you bring up a good point.  

 

That map doesn't scream Nino, indices aside that's one weak arse look. But hey I found a new weather web page for me while checking it out. https://www.wmolc.org/

https://www.wmolc.org/

PMME_TS_LATEST.gif

 

ScmMME65.114.186.1052658.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

it's you (or the data source/type).

 

For the general consumer ...   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

They're reporting ENSO neutral with also as you show up here, modest warming the equitorial Pacific ... *however, expectations are for El Nino throughout the next calendar year. Along with supporting data and so forth... 

My feeling is that too much emphasis has and is been(ing) placed on the summer thru autumn's ENSO status and how it will effect winter. Why? Not complicated really.. As the Hemispheric gradients steepen, that effectively activates the greater forcing tapestry ... (Uh, layout)  In other words, neutrality doesn't intuitively suggest whatever we were seeing in those summer ending weeks and through autumn, has to be driving the pattern variances now. 

If the signal was more apparent earlier on, as the season's descent got under way...then thresholds and trigger points and so forth would have been succeeded and we might see some more obvious, correlated traits emerge.  But, ...failing that (in the form of "neutral" - helloooo) gee... I wonder why we keep reading "...looks like Nina" or "...looks like Nino".   Maybe it doesn't look like anything. 

I'm being snarky there a little of course... Yes, the leading atmospheric factors in the total ocean-atmospheric coupled model may try to 'bend'  El Nino ...if indeed their "80%" chance parlays.  And in that... maybe the winter overall gets better designed later in January ...  Before that time, it's probably a coin flip pattern wiggling daily head-ache cornucopia of reasons to be irritable.   

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z gfs is high end advisory to low end warning for SNE Sunday pm overnite

perfectly places high

850/925 cold enough looks like 128 snow storm verbatim 

thought there was zero cold air and we wanted a miss 

Don't look at the 12z GGEM.

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