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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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8611Blizz

8611Blizz

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My friend who was the Logan snow guy from I think 06-11 lives in Back Bay now. He was an option, but I think they felt he was too far away. His Dad lives in East Boston near the airport and said they had maybe 1.5-2".  In any case, hopefully it's a big winter and this small difference now becomes noise. From what I heard...there was a huge difference right at the water, vs just inland.

You heard correctly.  My location about 5 miles form the coast was a solid 2" higher in the November storm. I had 4" before I even left to plow.  But to our east by about 3 miles it was about 2.5" an hour later.  Chelsea had about 1.5" near the salt pile when I got over that way.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Official obs are tied to the ASOSs now.

You could make the argument that city center obs are more important, but alas we don't have an ASOS in Boston Common.

Down in NYC there have been some bad inaccuracies since switching over to ASOS also (linked to vegetation overgrowth, it includes bad temp data, p-type issues, wind measurement concerns, etc.).  What was the reason for the switchover to ASOS?  

I wish we'd just use the wunderground network with Davis weather stations only, and use that as official weather data.  I know that there are networks such as MADIS, so we shouldn't just be limited to airports.  Those sites just need to be made official and reported on by the media, rather than all of the attention being given to airports and their inaccurate data.

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there will be a small window for something before Christmas but we will probably need to get a little lucky on the shortwaves since the EPO ridge is pretty far west...it will require good timing without blocking in the Atlantic. 

Its definitely a temporary La Niña pattern as progged. We will see if that holds up as we get closer....we know how those can work both in our favor and against. 

I was commenting on that in the other forum and the two Decembers this seems so similar to are 2000 and 2010 which were both la ninas, but perhaps its just a sign of how strong the blocking is, and the enso isn't the biggest factor in our pattern.  But those Dec also saw suppressed systems earlier in the month before the big blockbusters at the end of the month.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Down in NYC there have been some bad inaccuracies since switching over to ASOS also (linked to vegetation overgrowth, it includes bad temp data, p-type issues, wind measurement concerns, etc.).  What was the reason for the switchover to ASOS?  

I wish we'd just use the wunderground network with Davis weather stations only, and use that as official weather data.  I know that there are networks such as MADIS, so we shouldn't just be limited to airports.  Those sites just need to be made official and reported on by the media, rather than all of the attention being given to airports and their inaccurate data.

 

 

NYC is basically a small chain link fenced in station in the middle of the trees with its wind sensor mounted atop the castle. There's a youtube video of a tour being given of the station, and anyone can wander around the park and stumble upon it. I think the NYC obs are less critical since it's not an airport, so there are no air traffic safety concerns (the primary reason for ASOS).

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there will be a small window for something before Christmas but we will probably need to get a little lucky on the shortwaves since the EPO ridge is pretty far west...it will require good timing without blocking in the Atlantic. 

Its definitely a temporary La Niña pattern as progged. We will see if that holds up as we get closer....we know how those can work both in our favor and against. 

Agreed ... in a general sense.

I don't see this pattern as altogether removing chances for a wintry profiled system here or there, but ... as much as Scott is clearly demonstrating a predilection for marketing a warmer destruction of Christmas and weather-bobbies/winter enthusiastic hopes and dreams ..he's unfortunately correct. Things could flop warmer too.

I see the models as probably having more so than normal mid (and definitely then, extended range) issues in this regime ... oh, say east of 100W or so. I've referred to this as an 'unmanned fire-hose' in the past. Bit of hypothesis but, because the primary forcing/nodes that are guiding the basal Hem. wave spaces, are anchored so far back west over the western/central Pacific...  by the time we get this far east of those comparatively immovable structures, perturbation becomes more significant.  Each models and their runs are "spraying" solutions.  (How's that for really nailing down a metaphor! :) )   

Case in point ... I just reviewed several different modeling sources from the 00z cycle and every single one of them does not share a point of view with any other. It really is straw picking what's going to happen with this next bit of amplitude ejecting east over the weekend.  ECMWF != GGEM != GFS != ECMWF's ens mean != GEF's ens mean != ... n  All the while ... neither solution offers winter hope. There was some hints by the GFS yesterday ... one in particular was pretty bright, too. But since it's like it couldn't wait to erase it.

In the spirit of commiseration: We're just in a funk. They happen from time to time.  None of those modeling sources give any sort of entertainment to winter enthusiasm, yet purport a lot of variation? That mocks!  Like, they're throwing a myriad probabilities at us yet can't find one that includes any entertainment value ... right.  You cant' have the girl you've crushed on for the last ten years, but boy, have I ever got a delicious assortment of cankled hill-girls for you! Lot of unwanted variety ... that's being lanced by schit luck. Then, we (or at least " I " ) have endured some five recent mornings under 15 F at dawn in a row, so it's not like there's a dearth of cold air.  And it's comical to me ...in an under-the-radar way, that the spatial-temporal spans between rain-cold-rain-cold is variant. At least if it was every three days, that dependability fits intuitively into a "pattern".  But when the distance between events varies ... pours rubbing alcohol into the schit luck cut.  Going from a rain-cold pattern into a lull while what, a brand new rain-cold pattern figures out how to orient its self is uniquely targeting patients.   

Ha!  These funks can break down ... Yes there will come a day when the break down is permanent ...oh, in 50 years of GW acceleration perhaps... But for now, we bide time. It's just those times seem to stretch like hallway nightmares.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

938 , pretty impressive, if you loop the Euro you just see sub 970s rotate around one after the other, one player in why we keep getting Canadian High Pressure nearby. There's a non zero chance that as this pattern reshuffles we are suddenly faced with the prospect of a winter storm in New England. 

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

LOL - just returning to the board after a non-winter hiatus and knew there was nothing in the cards when I saw 11-hour-old posts on the most recent page of this thread -- then post after post about measuring gripes.

To be honest I'm sort of enjoying this extended dry stretch after the November gloom. Any sunshine on these short days feels good. I'm sure things will get messy by Christmas.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is it me or is this a Nino Fail? 

Certainly seems the atmosphere is acting more Nina and the SOI has been positive for a long while.

As pointed out this AM by @bluewave it is very uncommon to be going into December with a positive SOI and a weak El Nino.

Also, he mentioned the reason the cutter trended to the SE might have to do with the  + SOI split flow and a stronger Northern stream via the +SOI . I am not sure what to make of it. 

Certainly the SOI was negative back in Sept and Oct a lot, but looking at https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ the trend to me is not impressive.

And I know Ray mentioned yesterday the weak MEI number too. There is more to it than that with forcing , hadley cells, etc. but you bring up a good point.  

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

PJ retreating up into Canada FTL for precip lovers. Zonal flow...hit the snooze button until maybe a few days before Xmas and see if we sneak a system in by that point. 

Hopefully that completely cutoff system this weekend stays well south. 

This pattern absolutely blows.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, frd said:

Certainly seems the atmosphere is acting more Nina and the SOI has been positive for a long while.

As pointed out this AM by @bluewave it is very uncommon to be going into December with a positive SOI and a weak El Nino.

Also, he mentioned the reason the cutter trended to the SE might have to do with the  + SOI split flow and a stronger Northern stream via the +SOI . I am not sure what to make of it. 

Certainly the SOI was negative back in Sept and Oct a lot, but looking at https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ the trend to me is not impressive.

And I know Ray mentioned yesterday the weak MEI number too. There is more to it than that with forcing , hadley cells, etc. but you bring up a good point.  

 

MEI attempts to specificaly measure the atmosphere-ocean coupling, so theoretically speaking, it should at least indirectly account for all of that......but no measure is perfect, obviously.

Better than the ONI, imo.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This pattern absolutely blows.

The shortwave diving in tomorrow is really vigorous. Too bad it's interfered too much by the departing one to our southeast or we would have a really nice little clipper event tomorrow. Shows how the unpredictable chaos in the flow has worked against us in this otherwise favorable longwave pattern. 

Then we go into mild zonal flow for at least a week. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The shortwave diving in tomorrow is really vigorous. Too bad it's interfered too much by the departing one to our southeast or we would have a really nice little clipper event tomorrow. Shows how the unpredictable chaos in the flow has worked against us in this otherwise favorable longwave pattern. 

Then we go into mild zonal flow for at least a week. 

No one is watching that potential clipper for next week?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The shortwave diving in tomorrow is really vigorous. Too bad it's interfered too much by the departing one to our southeast or we would have a really nice little clipper event tomorrow. Shows how the unpredictable chaos in the flow has worked against us in this otherwise favorable longwave pattern. 

Then we go into mild zonal flow for at least a week. 

I didn't even look in order to discern why....don't care to dissect the kernels of peanuts encased within the terd....just flush and move on.

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