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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rain on Sunday won't make for fun leaf cleanup

I got lucky.  During the week of 11/5 while I was away, the cleanup guys did their thing but then tons of leaves from dozens of trees come down to the back patio.  Monday the 12th was a non work day and I did my own patio clean up.  3 days later we got 6+.  Then I needed another cleanup as old oak leaves come down.  Fortunately the guys came back.

12/5-12 looks ripe for real wintry wx.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I got lucky.  During the week of 11/5 while I was away, the cleanup guys did their thing and had their way with me on the back patio.  Monday the 12th was a non work day and I did my own patio clean up.  3 days later I got 6+ right in me smetzer.  Then I needed another cleanup as the old man still functions.  Fortunately the guys came back.

This old man looks ripe for real wintry xxx fun.

Wowzers.

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The first 8-9 days has two potentials. I think that is fairly certain as far as potential goes. We just don’t know track details.

The GEFS and GEM ensembles show you how a more Pacific pattern can still be ok. If one looks at H5 you will see more of a GOAK trough with weak ridging in west/Rockies. It’s not a great look, but it could be ok if it happens. It’s not a furnace look. Let’s hope for that.

I hope people understand the difference between relaxation and pure Pacific garbage. The EPS would argue for garbage, but I did say relaxation earlier. I’m not sold on garbage yet, but I also think it’s untruthful to say cold and snowy all month.

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The first 8-9 days has two potentials. I think that is fairly certain as far as potential goes. We just don’t know track details.

The GEFS and GEM ensembles show you how a more Pacific pattern can still be ok. If one looks at H5 you will see more of a GOAK trough with weak ridging in west/Rockies. It’s not a great look, but it could be ok if it happens. It’s not a furnace look. Let’s hope for that.

I hope people understand the difference between relaxation and pure Pacific garbage. The EPS would argue for garbage, but I did say relaxation earlier. I’m not sold on garbage yet, but I also think it’s untruthful to say cold and snowy all month.

Who said that?

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

"...if we somehow "prolong" the cold because we get a weak EPO block that holds off the AK vortex from establishing itself by 3-4 days....then by the time it is able to move in, the hemispheric pattern is starting to become hostile to an AK vortex and perhaps we only see a brief mild period ..."

 

yup...that 'bout sums it up for me. 

the EPO in the GEFs, I'm not sure how it compares to present EPS mean - Scott's been mentioning that it hasn't looked so good overall, but I'm not sure whether he was considering the EPO domain space and won't type words in his hand, but, I have personally noted that the GEFs seems to do very well with the EPO domain/index.  That could certainly just be coincidental to the last five or so years, but they've predicted some of the NP-Lakes -...NE and southern Canada cold shots with very good lag - 

But even if the EPO's magnitude is not handled perfectly?  I don't think that really matters for determinism.  The index has had a neggie sag for like four to six days and it's getting more coherent. Enough so to question warm signals. I like the idea you implied there ...re the EPO sort of bullying into the 'relaxation'/warm up's wave space and sort of gumming that up.  

That's huge in the offset department.  

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