40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/16/2018 at 7:12 PM, Snow88 said: Isotherm Well, as the proverbial body count on the abyss floor seems to be increasing by the day, I continue to watch as models adjust to the discussed forcing mechanisms in the medium range. The NAO domain signal continues to improve, while concurrently, geopotential heights correct more positive (i.e., less severe troughing) in W North America w/ every new cycle. However, rather than recognize these important medium range corrections which indicate longer range inaccuracies, some choose to focus on the unstable and evolving LR. Even still, the LR model changes are now being detected as the jet retraction relaxes, and more upstream ridging resumes in a mere few days following the zonal/gradient look for 24th-27th. Nothing has changed from my stand-point. Transitional period 21/22nd, sufficiently cold thereafter for potential threat. Periods such as this are quite revealing as to who bases their thought processes principally on model regurgitation, and who does not. Expand Yea, I have never understood the waivering because of a coulple of failed December chances in an el nino. Full steam ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 2:57 AM, SnoSki14 said: What do you make of raindancewx's analysis, he's basically comparing this year to 97/98 and shows everyone torching in January. Expand He's been consistently abysmal....which is forgivable, however its the complete lack of inisight into the fact that the logic is so tragically flawed that is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 5:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I have never understood the waivering because of a coulple of failed December chances in an el nino. Full steam ahead. Expand Bro.....it’s fine....don’t acknowledge that December is done....smoking cirrus must be your friend....smoking something.....anyway....sping is like 6 weeks away and here we are.....wasting precious December...what a joke....did I say my official rant is still coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 2:25 AM, Hoth said: Sad but true. Expand But what a dynasty, 5 super bowls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 5:44 AM, ice1972 said: Bro.....it’s fine....don’t acknowledge that December is done....smoking cirrus must be your friend....smoking something.....anyway....sping is like 6 weeks away and here we are.....wasting precious December...what a joke....did I say my official rant is still coming? Expand Spring 6 weeks away?? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 6:04 AM, Randy4Confluence said: Spring 6 weeks away?? WTF? Expand I guess the groundhog sees his shadow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 2:57 AM, SnoSki14 said: What do you make of raindancewx's analysis, he's basically comparing this year to 97/98 and shows everyone torching in January. Expand I think raindancewx has smoked one to many peace pipes in his day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/16/2018 at 7:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Put it this way, I don’t think one person had an overall +AO and a SE ridge nina circulation in the last third of December. That did show up in guidance and yes you have to look at models for that. You adjust. However I think the longer term still stands. Hope I’m not wrong. Expand A strong second half of winter is what we had been talking about previously. But as an aside, it's good to be wrong sometimes. Even the best LR forecasters are wrong plenty and what makes them the best is that they learn from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 3:49 AM, weathafella said: How can anyone compare the enso conditions...seriously. Expand Hes comparing this to a super el nino lol? And 97-98 was an aberration even for a super el nino- the two others we had, 82-83 and 15-16, both had blockbuster snow storms. A 1997-98 type winter may never happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 5:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I have never understood the waivering because of a coulple of failed December chances in an el nino. Full steam ahead. Expand In 1977-78 we had less than one inch of snowfall down here going into January. Between January, February and even March we ended up with a total of close to 60 inches down here for the season. Including two blizzards, one of which was an all-time great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 10:42 AM, LibertyBell said: Hes comparing this to a super el nino lol? And 97-98 was an aberration even for a super el nino- the two others we had, 82-83 and 15-16, both had blockbuster snow storms. A 1997-98 type winter may never happen again Expand We had a blockbuster in New England. (12/23/97) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 10:45 AM, dendrite said: We had a blockbuster in New England. (12/23/97) Expand Was that a blockbuster snowstorm or the big ice storm that I saw some incredible pictures of? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/16/2018 at 5:30 PM, CoastalWx said: I agree overall with Tip. I think his point has merit. It’s also why the CPC changed some of the former ENSO years with the new SST climo. However, that is misleading because it’s quite possible that a cooler overall Earth acted as we think it should when anomalies are presented. So what was a moderate niño back then, is now weak....however it probably acted like a moderate niño. So to look back and say so and so year was a weak niño is not really fair imo. Anyways what is happening now is totally inteaseaosnal. Mjo is destructively interfering. I have to think that changes in January? Expand Possibly, but as the background state changes, shouldn't what's considered a weak vs moderate vs strong ENSO remain the same vs the background, since ENSO strength is measured relative to the current background state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 10:47 AM, LibertyBell said: Was that a blockbuster snowstorm or the big ice storm that I saw some incredible pictures of? ;-) Expand The big icestorm was in 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 10:47 AM, LibertyBell said: Was that a blockbuster snowstorm or the big ice storm that I saw some incredible pictures of? ;-) Expand Snow. It was pretty great. Rain changed to snow in the am and it pounded all day. I got 9 inches but tippylland got double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 One thing I got was a link from Hoosier looking at dailies. 2004 is a good analog. Hardly any snow until the final days of the month. First half of January torchy. 1/15-4/1 were simply epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 11:09 AM, weathafella said: One thing I got was a link from Hoosier looking at dailies. 2004 is a good analog. Hardly any snow until the final days of the month. First half of January torchy. 1/15-4/1 were simply epic. Expand Sounds a lot like what 1977-78 was like too, Jer. 2014-15 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 11:10 AM, LibertyBell said: Sounds a lot like what 1977-78 was like too, Jer. 2014-15 also. Expand Exactly! All 3 80+ at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 10:53 AM, LibertyBell said: Possibly, but as the background state changes, shouldn't what's considered a weak vs moderate vs strong ENSO remain the same vs the background, since ENSO strength is measured relative to the current background state? Expand Well if we keep everything the same, then the anomalies aren’t going to tell the story. The same ocean temp anomalies from 50 years ago likely won’t have the same effect on the current atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 11:37 AM, CoastalWx said: Well if we keep everything the same, then the anomalies aren’t going to tell the story. The same ocean temp anomalies from 50 years ago likely won’t have the same effect on the current atmosphere. Expand So can a weak nino be neutral? I think that’s what you and tip are implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 11:40 AM, weathafella said: So can a weak nino be neutral? I think that’s what you and tip are implying? Expand I’m just sort of talking out loud here, but sure it’s possible it could act like one. However I don’t think we are seeing that here. I think enough anomalies exist to have an effect. It’s just been temporarily interfered with by the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 our climo blows and so does the foreseeable future good day folks nice for ski resorts prior to Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Christmas miracle on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 We're due for a dud winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 I wonder when/if we bring up the "R" word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 12:04 PM, NorEastermass128 said: I wonder when/if we bring up the "R" word. Expand "R"eally early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Looks like folks will have the opportunity to get out and do yard-work, do some lawn clean up between now and new years. Christmas traditions of yore?? Enjoy the weather--it's the only weather we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 12:19 PM, moneypitmike said: Looks like folks will have the opportunity to get out and do yard-work, do some lawn clean up between now and new years. Christmas traditions of yore?? Enjoy the weather--it's the only weather we've got. Expand Is there anyone who hasn’t cleaned up? I think we get half decent snow before midnight on 12/31/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 12:21 PM, weathafella said: Is there anyone who hasn’t cleaned up? I think we get half decent snow before midnight on 12/31/18. Expand good luck with that. Anything's possible--2 weeks is a long time, but I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 12:24 PM, moneypitmike said: good luck with that. Anything's possible in 2 weeks, but I wouldn't bet on it. Expand ffs. you're in maine. The pattern looks pretty nice post-christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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