LurkerBoy Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 One model run and we’re changing the tenor of the whole winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:22 PM, LurkerBoy said: One model run and we’re changing the tenor of the whole winter? Expand Yeah, look at all those posts cancelling January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 12:55 PM, J Paul Gordon said: La Nina? Jeez, where have I been? Thought we were in a weak Nino Expand Very odd, SOI continues to climb too. If it's not a Nina then it's at least La Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 10 days in a row of negative departures for ORH should end today. 11 of the first 13 days were BN -5.0F for the month Let's see how much the mild up erodes that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:09 PM, Ginx snewx said: Cept Scooter said after 12 -25 we flip to cold. You can't claim victory if you move the goal posts. Expand LOL so now I get blamed for that? can’t win. It’s certainly a change. I definitely did not expect more of a nina look, but it’s a much better look for colder and snowier weather. But we have a cutter risk and I don’t think it’s a prolonged deep winter look that we would have if the ridge were more of a +PNA. Hopefully it’s not a frustrating winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:15 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's a pretty cold look. It's just a gradient pattern though so buyer beware...could be cutters mixed in. Expand Scooter had a good grasp on the mild up reshuffle week. Think models struggle a lot during these transition periods. Where the PV split ends up will determine our sensible weather. The ocean and the atmosphere still remained decoupled in the Nino region but thats NBD for New England. Lots nino region talk for our lowest teleconnection. I am much more interested in the EPO PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said: Hopefully it’s not a frustrating winter. Expand Too late lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:27 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: 10 days in a row of negative departures for ORH should end today. 11 of the first 13 days were BN -5.0F for the month Let's see how much the mild up erodes that... Expand If you recall I had a convo over a week ago with Jerry about a very gentle mild up and that the month was a lock to finish BN at the big 4. There was a lot of disagreement with that . It’s a very very benign mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL so now I get blamed for that? can’t win. It’s certainly a change. I definitely did not expect more of a nina look, but it’s a much better look for colder and snowier weather. But we have a cutter risk and I don’t think it’s a prolonged deep winter look that we would have if the ridge were more of a +PNA. Hopefully it’s not a frustrating winter. Expand Sensitive? I didn't blame you for anything. I just posted we are well inside the correctly called warmer period, calling out Zachs pop for post 12/25 is misrepresenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 I know I am repeating myself, however the well respected METS and bloggers have not amended their winter outlooks for an above average snowfall winter. Therefore I would take any long range model output which is unfavorable as noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:38 PM, EastonSN+ said: I know I am repeating myself, however the well respected METS and bloggers have not amended their winter outlooks for an above average snowfall winter. Therefore I would take any long range model output which is unfavorable as noise at this point. Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:33 PM, Ginx snewx said: Scooter had a good grasp on the mild up reshuffle week. Think models struggle a lot during these transition periods. Where the PV split ends up will determine our sensible weather. The ocean and the atmosphere still remained decoupled in the Nino region but thats NBD for New England. Lots nino region talk for our lowest teleconnection. I am much more interested in the EPO PNA Expand Well ENSO does have a higher correlation with PNA. So we will want to regain the Niño atmosphere to some extent if we want to increase the chances of a +PNA setting up for a prolonged period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 The EPO ridging is better on the gefs than the eps. 11 to 15 is a lot colder on the gefs than the eps because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said: The EPO really crashes in the 11-15 day. That’s what the weeklies suggest too. It’s an ok look verbatim, but I wouldn’t say it’s the prettiest. Expand Models will struggle with this until the pick up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:33 PM, Ginx snewx said: Scooter had a good grasp on the mild up reshuffle week. Think models struggle a lot during these transition periods. Where the PV split ends up will determine our sensible weather. The ocean and the atmosphere still remained decoupled in the Nino region but thats NBD for New England. Lots nino region talk for our lowest teleconnection. I am much more interested in the EPO PNA Expand Ninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Well ENSO does have a higher correlation with PNA. So we will want to regain the Niño atmosphere to some extent if we want to increase the chances of a +PNA setting up for a prolonged period. Expand This has a 60 61 77 78 02 03 04 05 vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: GEFS there totally caved to the EPS gradient idea. Squeal like a pig Zach's Pop and call Coastalwx your daddy. Expand Really? Your buddy said close the shades for two weeks and some of you may see snow and ice next week. Sadly your EPS hugging buddy will miss it since his shades will be closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:51 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Ninja'd me Expand Lol just thinking out loud. This may all of a sudden come into focus once things stabilize. We do know the Pac jet retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:58 PM, Zach’s Pop said: Really? Your buddy said close the shades for two weeks and some of you may see snow and ice next week. Sadly your EPS hugging buddy will miss it since his shades will be closed Expand Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:50 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Models will struggle with this until the pick up on it. Expand What I meant was it kind of goes away fairly quickly, at least I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: Chill Expand I noticed the mets on here are very very sensitive. They like to dish it out but get agitated when a past forecast gets brought up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:58 PM, Zach’s Pop said: Really? Your buddy said close the shades for two weeks and some of you may see snow and ice next week. Sadly your EPS hugging buddy will miss it since his shades will be closed Expand Snow and ice? My shades Have been close for days now and will remain closed until I see Santa sleigh. Did the Home let you walk around again freely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Monday looks sneaky, Euro ticking this back NW as we are getting some phasing, Not far off if we get this to happen sooner for plowable at least for eastern areas, I'd be selling that IVT look on the Nam right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 Who is sensitive LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 It’s been awhile since we’ve had a good ice event pike south. Sunday may be it till it flips to snow at night then slides east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 1:58 PM, Zach’s Pop said: Really? Your buddy said close the shades for two weeks and some of you may see snow and ice next week. Sadly your EPS hugging buddy will miss it since his shades will be closed Expand You haven't added a single substantive post since you joined here as a "newb." Maybe try to add something instead of only trolling and being an ass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Who is sensitive LOL. Expand Butthurt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:02 PM, dryslot said: Monday looks sneaky, Euro ticking this back NW as we are getting some phasing, Not far off if we get this to happen sooner for plowable at least for eastern areas, I'd be selling that IVT look on the Nam right now. Expand Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally agree. Expand A seal fart and its warning snows...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 On 12/14/2018 at 2:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Snow and ice? My shades Have been close for days now and will remain closed until I see Santa sleigh. Did the Home let you walk around again freely? Expand The eps doesn't have an -EPO from what I can see. You have any thought on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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