MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:33 PM, yoda said: @ORH_wxman Should we put any stock into what the 12z GFS OP at H5 was showing in the LR? Its being discussed in our thread... but it looks extremely ugly Expand Look at the gefs this far out. Don't worry about the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:38 PM, yoda said: You would think it would show a good snow with that look for you guys... but the surface maps show barely any precip at all... maybe it will take a while to respond? Expand I will take it at this range, would favor the east side of things Miller B pop. That's a great cold pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Battle brewing between GFS and its son....if my memory is correct, I believe the FV3 was too far south for the November 15th storm in the 3-5 day period. Just something to keep an eye on as we head further into winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 The gfs op is creating more pacific and STJ acation with troughing out west. The ensembles don’t really show that. They seem to keep the troughing to the east. While the gfs op may be in the realm of solutions, I wouldn’t quite worry about it. I do think the SE ridge could flex at times so I would be concerned for a time in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Post 12/25. And don’t be crying if we still aren’t quite in it at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:40 PM, CoastalWx said: The gfs op is creating more pacific and STJ acation with troughing out west. The ensembles don’t really show that. They seem to keep the troughing to the east. While the gfs op may be in the realm of solutions, I wouldn’t quite worry about it. I do think the SE ridge could flex at times so I would be concerned for a time in the MA. Expand Yea, I think we will have some bouts of RNA this month....subtle shades of 1968-'69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Both the GFS and FV3 like a nice coastal for Christmas... its nice and juicy... but the cold is marginal. You guys might do better than us down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 12/20 is the date transition goes into motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:42 PM, CoastalWx said: Post 12/25. And don’t be crying if we still aren’t quite in it at that time. Expand GEFS is the 20th on, will be a big fail on its part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 12/20 is the date transition goes into motion Expand What does your father, winter wolfie think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:47 PM, Ginx snewx said: GEFS is the 20th on, will be a big fail on its part. Expand Given EPO cold dump I would have higher confidence pushing it back. That’s my reasoning. While it could be after 12-20, I feel that’s risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does your father, winter wolfie think? Expand Jo mama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Jo mama? Expand Wolfie owns you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 4:54 PM, Greg said: Guys there's still time to get a sneak attack of 4-8" and even an 8-12" storm. Things can happen around here. It's only Dec 12, right now. Expand There's just as a good a chance we pull off some 50-60F days. It's only Dec 12th afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Euro caved. Cold Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:30 PM, weathafella said: Euro caved. Cold Tuesday Expand Windex event on Monday for Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Yay, more useless cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 5:17 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still deeply skeptical but a few inches would go a long way for some in this subforum. Thoughts on the potential tomorrow? Looks like the guidance is starting to like a period of light snow in parts of SNE tomorrow. Very low ceiling but maybe C-1 if we’re lucky? Barely any qpf to work with. Expand Yeah tomorrow would see some light snow. Esp tomorrow evening. Best chance would be SW CT up through Berkshires. The sfc high keeps low levels pretty dry further east. Cant rule out a coating to maybe an inch if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yay, more useless cold. Expand It's a one day cold shot in the midst of a torchy pattern. But if it comes in slightly more aggressive it would be accompanied by a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Yeah 19th already getting mild. I don’t really buy the gfs op for more than just some shsn, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:36 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's a one day cold shot in the midst of a torchy pattern. But if it comes in slightly more aggressive it would be accompanied by a couple inches of snow. Expand Hopefully. I am bored sick from this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Euro is extremely extremely close to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:42 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro is extremely extremely close to snow Expand Agree. I thought it was a pretty big cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:43 PM, weathafella said: Agree. I thought it was a pretty big cave. Expand The reinforcing antecedent air mass has me wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Technically sub freezing all of Tuesday and Wednesday on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully. I am bored sick from this pattern. Expand December of bore continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 More pinching on both ends of torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:44 PM, CoastalWx said: December of bore continues Expand Babies in September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:46 PM, weathafella said: Babies in September? Expand Babies from bore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Babies from bore? Expand That’s how I was taught... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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