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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 9:32 PM, ORH_wxman said:

One of the funnier memories of that event. Ekster stopped the ice storm watch at the MA border and kevin threw an epic tantrum. But it turned out to be a great call two days out...siggy ice had a lot of trouble making it south of the border in central areas. 

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I didn’t throw any tantrum lol. Not at all. I wasn’t expecting what you got . As I recall.. he even mentioned in his afd the Tolland Hills would see little ice or something like that.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn’t throw any tantrum lol. Not at all. I wasn’t expecting what you got . As I recall.. he even mentioned in his afd the Tolland Hills would see little ice or something like that.

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I went back to find the AFD mention and could not.

You did have an epic tantrum. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 10:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn’t throw any tantrum lol. Not at all. I wasn’t expecting what you got . As I recall.. he even mentioned in his afd the Tolland Hills would see little ice or something like that.

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  On 12/11/2018 at 10:58 PM, CT Rain said:

I went back to find the AFD mention and could not.

You did have an epic tantrum. 

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BASED ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WE THINK THERE/S A GOOD CHANCE OF A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO
BUDGE REGARDLESS OF SFC TRACK...EVEN IF THE WESTERNMOST ECMWF
VERIFIES. THEREFORE...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WE HAVE AT LEAST A
50/50 CONFIDENCE LEVEL THAT WARNING CRITERIA FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
AMOUNTS WILL BE MET ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT/S WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS...BUT COULD
DEFINITELY SEE A DECENT ICE ACCRETION FURTHER SOUTH INTO CT...AND EVEN
SOME TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 11:24 PM, OceanStWx said:

  

BASED ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WE THINK THERE/S A GOOD CHANCE OF A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO
BUDGE REGARDLESS OF SFC TRACK...EVEN IF THE WESTERNMOST ECMWF
VERIFIES. THEREFORE...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WE HAVE AT LEAST A
50/50 CONFIDENCE LEVEL THAT WARNING CRITERIA FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
AMOUNTS WILL BE MET ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT/S WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS...BUT COULD
DEFINITELY SEE A DECENT ICE ACCRETION FURTHER SOUTH INTO CT...AND EVEN
SOME TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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There was one afd in one storm where he specifically ruled out the Tolland Hills . Maybe it was a snow event 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 10:46 PM, Snow88 said:

Miller b on the gfs for next Tuesday

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There's a semblance of anti-GFS agenda going in here this afternoon - not sure what the source/reason is for that bias against it, as it hasn't been altogether horrible this season thus far.  Nailed the pancaked Southerly route on the last disappointment ahead of the touted Euro, too...

Be that as is may, ...I dunno. Perhaps it's some kind of a defense mechanism to play coy to it while in reality their coveting other ideas.  Either way, these solutions 12z to 18z (...06Z on the 10th may as well may as well throw that one in ) were all down right winter-like. I'm curious about these alternative solutions to the Euro... That's all -nothing to get one's knickers in a bunch. But the auto-dismissive attitude is silly.  The Ukmet was a possible red flag here...  It's early, and it's still technically in the shy side of mid range so time to modulate toward less or more.

However, that northern stream fist has been in every GFS run regardless of the southern lead system that is contentious. It's under the radar. In this run's evolution it's going to be starved for moisture, as the southern system (probably) evacuates seaward. It is a very powerful wave mechanic though, which it has been trending. It's not like this solution came out of nowhere.   

Here's perhaps a novel idea... The GFS corrects toward the Euro and the Euro trophy foists...as it's eating schit because the GFS has the right idea with the northern stream and we end up with a NJ model coastal nick job.   Stuff on the table.. .but I guess the "support group's" tenor isn't interested in exploring those.

No solution can be ruled out in frenzied fast flow with fire-hose N and S streams whipping around in the runs.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 11:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a semblance of anti-GFS agenda going in here this afternoon - not sure what the source/reason is for that bias against it, as it hasn't been altogether horrible this season thus far.  Nailed the pancaked Southerly route on the last disappointment ahead of the touted Euro, too...

Be that as is may, ...I dunno. Perhaps it's some kind of a defense mechanism to play coy to it while in reality their coveting other ideas.  Either way, these solutions 12z to 18z (...06Z on the 10th may as well may as well throw that one in ) were all down right winter-like. I'm curious about these alternative solutions to the Euro... That's all -nothing to get one's knickers in a bunch. But the auto-dismissive attitude is silly.  The Ukmet was a possible red flag here...  It's early, and it's still technically in the shy side of mid range so time to modulate toward less or more.

However, that northern stream fist has been in every GFS run regardless of the southern lead system that is contentious. It's under the radar. In this run's evolution it's going to be starved for moisture, as the southern system (probably) evacuates seaward. It is a very powerful wave mechanic though, which it has been trending. It's not like this solution came out of nowhere.   

Here's perhaps a novel idea... The GFS corrects toward the Euro and the Euro trophy foists...as it's eating schit because the GFS has the right idea with the northern stream and we end up with a NJ model coastal nick job.   Stuff on the table.. .but I guess the "support group's" tenor isn't interested in exploring those.

No solution can be ruled out in frenzied fast flow with fire-hose N and S streams whipping around in the runs.

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Model racism? 

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
  On 12/11/2018 at 8:27 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I just opened Alex's post and went to his camera link, man dude has got an epic view

Capture.JPG

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Thanks! It's a great spot indeed. We fell in love with it as soon as we saw it! Of course it also happened to be February on a beautiful upslope day lol. It's a very unique lot in Bretton Woods in that it's completely surrounded by National Forest and the river, and has a number of different ecosystems in it from some awesome wetlands to ponds to maple groves to thick red spruce forest. A rep from the University of New Hampshire actually visited, they are putting us on some sort of government grant list for ecological preservation. Of course, they also said it will take years for anything to happen lol

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2018 at 1:39 AM, alex said:

Thanks! It's a great spot indeed. We fell in love with it as soon as we saw it! Of course it also happened to be February on a beautiful upslope day lol. It's a very unique lot in Bretton Woods in that it's completely surrounded by National Forest and the river, and has a number of different ecosystems in it from some awesome wetlands to ponds to maple groves to thick red spruce forest. A rep from the University of New Hampshire actually visited, they are putting us on some sort of government grant list for ecological preservation. Of course, they also said it will take years for anything to happen lol

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Nice hopefully that includes flood protection 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
  On 12/12/2018 at 12:27 AM, MBRI said:

Swift Diamond Riders just announced they open in  5 hours  12/12/18

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  On 12/12/2018 at 12:41 AM, Cold Miser said:

Old Forge NY area has had trails open since hunting season ended on the 2nd or 3rd.

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They open in Vermont on December 16th by law. That’s one day after the latest possible last day of hunting season. 

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