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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 5:27 PM, weathafella said:

Mild up should wipe it out if not swing us positive imho.  We depend on last 7 days of December to pull us back down.

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A couple to 7 days of 40’s won’t come close . We’re back to normal week of the 20th and you can already see model signs of a coastal transfer / snow threat at some point either side of the 25th

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 5:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

A couple to 7 days of 40’s won’t come close . We’re back to normal week of the 20th and you can already see model signs of a coastal transfer / snow threat at some point either side of the 25th

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Ever the eternal optimist.....Canada will be flushed.   It will take time to get cold again.  12/20-24 look AOA normal.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 11:26 AM, LibertyBell said:

Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December?

 

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Both.........Most intense starts latter in January, but there will be chances after xmas and into the new year. It won't be as slow a start as 2015 imo.

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 6:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

When weenies don't get their bottle, they become agitated. 

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Even I, young Padawan weenie, am starting to resent the folks who refuse any good info because it doesn’t sync up with their wishes.

There is something very relieving about submitting to the forces of nature. It’s beautiful. 

Nature, no matter what, will reign paramount to the romantic narratives of the human being.

Happy Sunday friends :) let’s enjoy the thaw and hope it precedes a nice little winter pattern. Till then, thank you to Scott, Tip, ORHWxman and the other heavy hitters. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 6:41 PM, LurkerBoy said:

Even I, young Padawan weenie, am starting to resent the folks who refuse any good info because it doesn’t sync up with their wishes.

There is something very relieving about submitting to the forces of nature. It’s beautiful. 

Nature, no matter what, will reign paramount to the romantic narratives of the human being.

Happy Sunday friends :) let’s enjoy the thaw and hope it precedes a nice little winter pattern. Till then, thank you to Scott, Tip, ORHWxman and the other heavy hitters. 

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...This does not mean that you are losing the Weenie Tag anytime soon.  Brownie points don't work.

:lol::weenie:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 4:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I was more speaking of the scope of its coverage. It's a pretty large shortwave...not one of these little compact deals that may be deeper or higher vorticity...but these larger ones can really build up a large thermal gradient in terms of aerial coverage and they have an impressive fetch of moisture advection. If we had been able to phase this sucker into pushing further north, could've been pretty fun. 

But as is, good for the folks in S VA...an area that often gets left out. Prettt epic there. 

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Not to come off high handed, but ... that really wasn't in the cards going back several days in my mind. 

I've never been a big fan of the over-the-north-pole savior scenario.  Mainly because I've never actually seen that happen. heh. It'd be awesome to see that!

Mostly ... I've seen variations on subsume scenarios - it's when/where a more southerly S/W trekking east under a western end of a SPV.  It fragments and comes south ... dives into the backside .... the two fuse ... go nuts etc.  But even more open-waved, two and trip. steam phasers carry some semblance or echo of the same thing, just maybe less coherently obvious because the N-stream isn't bifurcating before hand. But if different scales are blown out and less smoothed, it may demonstrate the similarities more clearly.

As it were... I believe what happened leading this this situation in the south was that the circulation N demoed some idiosyncratic timing, on whole - which even if an embedded SW/ wave was coming it wouldn't have been available.  The NAO index flipped, too ...maybe related...  Either way, N jet is rolling out as this thing arrived. That "allowed" the southern stream to remain in tact.  To make sense of that statement ... when the band went N, the gradients overall become less in tandem... and that's allowing relatively paltry wind max(ing) to enter that region without getting otherwise lost like it typically would.  If the relaxation hadn't happened... it might have even been less down S even.

I jut think the models were dead wrong, all of them... when this was out around D8 or 9 ... which of course isn't really the 'fault' of the models given that range. But this thing just simply modulated and was handled well within a realistic model expectation, and the last four or so days of consternation we all took turns explaining how this "could" do x-y-z ... heh, which is a dangerous to do.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 4:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes they did. It was kind of an all or nothing though. Like 80% of the time  that a phase would whiff, it will stay locked into the same track...but in the 1 out of ~5 times or so that they screwed up and the northern stream phases in, we probably would have seen a monster solution much further north. The large scale PV location was pretty stable but the spokes around it were where any potential mishap could happen. 

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Oddly enough, dProg/dt showed that there was uncharacteristically little disagreement in surface low position run to run, but aloft the forcing responsible for the northern edge had quite a bit of variation.

It's not often you see modeling waffle on upper level features but not on surface features. 

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 5:58 PM, weathafella said:

FWIW GEPS is pretty aggressive in making it cold here before 12/25.  That’s a sweet pattern ...would be nice to have it right.

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Don't know how good the GEPS is with the 2m temps, but after next weekend, even NYC doesn't get above 42°F for any day, with most days having highs in the upper 30's to 40°F.  Doesn't seem too bad to me.

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
  On 12/9/2018 at 12:07 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ray continues to rake!  Nailing this season to date.

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Huh?

"Nearly two weeks ago, it was speculated that December was poised to begin like a lion, however not all potential is realized. While the system traversing the area this weekend will deliver yet another round of rainfall to the region as the culmination to what has been one of the wettest autumns on record, the first week of meteorological winter may yet live up to its name. "

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