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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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  On 12/8/2018 at 11:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a strong SW which itself delivers light snow to everyone. The IVT focus appears to be E CT , all of RI and SE Mass 

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The focus actually looks from Maine down to CC...looks weaker influence southwest. Doesn't mean it can't change but you'd favor north and outer cape on this given the trajectory of the shortwave as currently modeled. 

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Deep winter cold so far this December...

Any thoughts on what departures might end up with this month?

Through the 1st week it's -3.9 at MPV and -3.4 at MVL... and that's not including today's brutal cold relative to normal.

Low of -10F this morning followed by a high in the teens will only drop the departures further and same can be said for Sunday and Monday.

Will the pattern change to milder temperatures be long enough and strong enough to overcome a -4 to -5 type first third of the month?

Can't believe it's 7F at home at 6:30pm on December 8th but after several arctic shots, including sub-zero cold in November, it seems this pattern keeps on giving.

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  On 12/8/2018 at 11:47 PM, powderfreak said:

Deep winter cold so far this December...

Any thoughts on what departures might end up with this month?

Through the 1st week it's -3.9 at MPV and -3.4 at MVL... and that's not including today's brutal cold relative to normal.

Low of -10F this morning followed by a high in the teens will only drop the departures further and same can be said for Sunday and Monday.

Will the pattern change to milder temperatures be long enough and strong enough to overcome a -4 to -5 type first third of the month?

Can't believe it's 7F at home at 6:30pm on December 8th but after several arctic shots, including sub-zero cold in November, it seems this pattern keeps on giving.

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Congrats

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  On 12/8/2018 at 10:24 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I think everyone here cept far Emass has used their snowblower, shovel at least once

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I had to shovel and plow that 9" storm we got in northeastern, MA, just outside of Boston. Logan International Airport (Human Created Lilly Pad/Barge On The Water Since 1936) is a entire other story.  The 2.7-3.0" on the water should have been Novembers total, not the 0.1" Logan recorded after the rain.

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  On 12/9/2018 at 12:50 AM, dendrite said:

While we're on this topic, props to @OceanStWx for getting the estimated CON data from the Thanksgiving cold shot added to the climo record. I see it in the F6 and in the record on Threadex.

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We do listen to the weenies every now and then!

After the discussion that day I started dialogue with the climate focal point, who was equally annoyed that we lost the data. He wanted to estimate his own numbers based on all the surrounding data, but settled for a compromise of using the river gauge. So no record low, but close enough.

We're also in the process of getting that wonky 1875 high temp changed using old Boston Post articles. 

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  On 12/9/2018 at 1:11 AM, OceanStWx said:

We do listen to the weenies every now and then!

After the discussion that day I started dialogue with the climate focal point, who was equally annoyed that we lost the data. He wanted to estimate his own numbers based on all the surrounding data, but settled for a compromise of using the river gauge. So no record low, but close enough.

We're also in the process of getting that wonky 1875 high temp changed using old Boston Post articles. 

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Making CON climatology great again

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  On 12/9/2018 at 1:18 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Bostons OK, world class maybe, traffic sucks like any city, some nice Museums, nice shopping areas but like any city not for me.

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Walkable, good public transportation, best healthcare in the world, snowy considering its location.  Strong history, neighborhoods, growing diversity, unfortunately very expensive.

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  On 12/8/2018 at 3:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, for the southern storm, I kind of like near RIC for a northern edge fronto/def band. Kind of like the philly band in 2/5/10. That same type of forcing. There will be a sharp cutoff somewhere just north of where it sets up. 

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KWAL.skewt.20181209.00.gif

A lot of low level dry air there in the north half of VA.

  On 12/8/2018 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

What about for GEFS? I’d be careful of using the past 90 days to predict a two week period in a different season is going to bias warm. I’d say the same for any guidance. It’s also not just about temperature. The H5 hemispheric pattern needs to be taken into account too. 

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Eff you, I'm chopping 1.5 degrees off the Euro forecast the rest of winter.

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