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December Discussion


NorEastermass128

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Well just to bring up a couple of monster comebacks that were every bit as messed up as this...Boxing Day 2010-that was written off for gonzo days ahead.   And Jan 15 was out to sea until the Euro run of 0z Early Saturday morning, and that storm was coming just a tad over two days later.   So there have been comebacks that have been very surprising.  

Time will tell...at least it’s something to keep an eye on for a little while.

 

 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:45 AM, WinterWolf said:

Everybody has their own opinions...it’s not the guru it once was imo.  It’s dropped back a few notches since the upgrade.  It Maybe the best model still ...but it’s not it’s old self. 

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The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. 

Modeling has improved since then but not that much. 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:43 AM, WinterWolf said:

Well just to bring up a couple of monster comebacks that were every bit as messed up as this...Boxing Day 2010-that was written off for gonzo days ahead.   And Jan 15 was out to sea until the Euro run of 0z Early Saturday morning, and that storm was coming just a tad over two days later.   So there have been comebacks that have been very surprising.  

Time will tell...at least it’s something to keep an eye on for a little while.

 

 

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Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history 

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No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. 

Modeling has improved since then but not that much. 

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Oh I agree.  But I’m glad to see that you used the phrase “in its Hay Day,”  cuz it’s hay day imo has passed.   They tweaked something and it’s not the same model since.  

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:51 AM, ORH_wxman said:

No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. 

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Wasn’t the 00z euro out late that night too? Maybe my memory is hazy.

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history 

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I was on the other board then..and a supposed mastermind over there was chastising everybody who thought that the storm had a chance after a couple models showed it coming up. He was honking about the upper air pattern not supporting the storm turning the corner...lol he ended up eating some huge crow... 

  On 12/6/2018 at 12:51 AM, ORH_wxman said:

No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. 

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Yes remember that too...

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. 

Modeling has improved since then but not that much. 

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I think even 12/31/08 was mild at first like 6 days out, and then ticked south.

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  On 12/6/2018 at 1:05 AM, WinterWolf said:

You sure that wasn’t 12/31/07??  I remember it snowing on NYE 2007..but not 08...but maybe I’m wrong? 

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12/31/08 prett much whiffed south of the Merritt. Your a little north I think butntou may have only gotten a dusting so it wasn't memorable. It was a potent redeveloping clipper for the pike region into S NH and also crushed SE MA. 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 1:06 AM, Ginx snewx said:

11 years ago this month was one of my all time favorites.  The  3 day snow, 17 inches worth

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It was a CJ-fest in the middle here. Never got an ob from Weymouth, but pretty sure we beat the 14 or 15” in Whitman from the first two days.  The last storm was when Ray played naked twister. That winter was sneaky real good here. 

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  On 12/6/2018 at 12:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history 

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That's a golden memory...Excitement was swiftly undercut, however, when it turned into six inches of shredded baking powder here. Great wind though.

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  On 12/6/2018 at 1:22 AM, ORH_wxman said:

12/31/08 prett much whiffed south of the Merritt. Your a little north I think butntou may have only gotten a dusting so it wasn't memorable. It was a potent redeveloping clipper for the pike region into S NH and also crushed SE MA. 

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Oh ok that makes sense.   Yes, about 15 miles  Northwest of the northern most extent/start of the Merrit 

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