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December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 10:09 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Tick tick.. hear the footsteps 

the 00z Euro ensembles offer a wider
distribution of possible outcomes with 12 of the 50 members
(~25%) having a big hit for southern New England with at least 1
inch of qpf. That`s an uptick from 9 - 12z members. So given
the time range here and the complex interaction between streams
all 3 different outcomes remain in play which include 1) out to
sea, 2) a glancing blow to 3) a direct hit
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I’ll take a glancing blow

there are people w out shelter so how could I want a snow storm 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 11:25 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Around a 20% chance of >3 snow on EPS for SNE. NC is 98%. Does this turn up the coast in time? Euro nudged west a tad.

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So far the models are really showing  a kick rather than a phase.  They've been consistent with this in general with the biggest difference being the latitude where the kick takes place.  The GEM which had been on the phase train has backed off on that--at least as to when it will take place and progressively trended south toward toward a (closer) miss than much of the guidance.  I'm eager to see if we can some better inkling of movement at 12z.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 11:42 AM, moneypitmike said:

So far the models are really showing  a kick rather than a phase.  They've been consistent with this in general with the biggest difference being the latitude where the kick takes place.  The GEM which had been on the phase train has backed off on that--at least as to when it will take place and progressively trended south toward toward a (closer) miss than much of the guidance.  I'm eager to see if we can some better inkling of movement at 12z.

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Is this still a Sun-mon event if it makes its way, or Mon-Tue?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 11:55 AM, CarLover014 said:

Hi, I'm mainly in the NYC metro forum, but I'd like some input from some of you here, on this snow coming in this afternoon for Coastal NJ. I've mainly joined just for the learning aspect of things. 

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It looks like that area south of Tom’s River and especially near ACY could get possibly a few inches. It’s tough to tell exactly since it may stay offshore, but conditions favorable for good snow growth. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 11:55 AM, CarLover014 said:

Hi, I'm mainly in the NYC metro forum, but I'd like some input from some of you here, on this snow coming in this afternoon for Coastal NJ. I've mainly joined just for the learning aspect of things. 

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Inverted trough "NORLUN" 

https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 10:40 AM, moneypitmike said:

A complete yawn from GYX.  

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major weather systems of note for the extended forecast.

16*

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No surprise.  Some folks are citing Jan. 2016, and the GYX area got bupkis from that one.  GSP has a better chance for snow than we do from this one.

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 12:37 PM, weathafella said:

We’re so wrapped up innext week’s possible storm that we’re kind of losing the forest for the trees.  It’s wintry now....nice winter type chill overnight and today.  19 when I went out with the doggie 2 hours ago.  Up to 21 now.

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Agreed. Far less people appreciate winter than do simply snow. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 12:48 PM, dryslot said:

We winter, 9/5°F

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Congrats on the single digits.  Bottomed at 14* here.  Cold enough for some ice to begin forming.  I'm looking forward to the ice-flows going up and down the river.  Already you can make out where very thin ones are currently flowing upriver with the tide.  Soon enough the thicker ones will take hold.  It's always fun to watch a CG icebreaker head upstream to clear out the ice jams upriver.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2018 at 1:08 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats on the single digits.  Bottomed at 14* here.  Cold enough for some ice to begin forming.  I'm looking forward to the ice-flows going up and down the river.  Already you can make out where very thin ones are currently flowing upriver with the tide.  Soon enough the thicker ones will take hold.  It's always fun to watch a CG icebreaker head upstream to clear out the ice jams upriver.

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Sounds like life is full of excitement up there at Pit2.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. 

The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. 

The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. 

Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here. 

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