Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS looks awful in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 4:24 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Not everyone agrees that this is a weak modoki el nino. I've seen references to it being a weak to moderate el nino. Which years do you consider to be a weak modoki el nino? Expand It currently is weak, that is fact.....using climatology as a guide, the upper bounds of this intensity wise is borderline weak/moderate. It's very unimpressive from a MEI standpoint (.468), which is a better measure of the ocean-atmosphere coupling than ONI. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html But even by ONI standards, we are still solidly weak. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 4:49 PM, CoastalWx said: Ukie looks pretty far south. Tough to tell what it does after, without seeing 500 vort plots. Expand It does look like it has potential after 144....my preferred evolution on this storm though would be for things to happen sooner....get this much further north off to the west and then redevelop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: It does look like it has potential after 144....my preferred evolution on this storm though would be for things to happen sooner....get this much further north off to the west and then redevelop it. Expand We have seen models latch onto a fate similar to this evolution with regard to east coast cylogenesis, and they never make those adjustments this early of a lead time. We still have plenty of time for that......but I don't see a blockbuster from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: It does look like it has potential after 144....my preferred evolution on this storm though would be for things to happen sooner....get this much further north off to the west and then redevelop it. Expand Yeah, I wondering how much of the northern stream energy was digging on the backside over Minnnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I never will be on board about a blockbuster storm at all with this. All that comes to mind is a potential classic Miller A storm like Feb 6-7 1967 in the KU Book. Not saying that is going to happen either of course but potential for an outgrowth is there of course if and only if in the very end things break right for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:01 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: GFS looks awful in the longer term. Expand It changes every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:14 PM, Snow88 said: It changes every run Expand gee really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:18 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: gee really? Expand GFS is a midium range model but it has trouble in these particular upper level patterns. Anything outside of let's say most stuff outside of 120 hours can change on the spin of a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:22 PM, Greg said: GFS is a midium range model but it has trouble in these particular upper level patterns. Anything outside of let's say 60 hours can change on the spin of a dime. Expand fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:22 PM, Greg said: GFS is a midium range model but it has trouble in these particular upper level patterns. Anything outside of let's say 120 hours can change on the spin of a dime. Expand Would you bet cold or warm for the period that the gfs is showing warmth coast to coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:24 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Would you bet cold or warm for the period that the gfs is showing warmth coast to coast? Expand Definately lean colder right now. Not saying it will be 30-35F all the time during the day but won't be a constant 45-50F either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:24 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Would you bet cold or warm for the period that the gfs is showing warmth coast to coast? Expand I wouldn't bet anything on that model....you can Hug it if you want though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Are we discussing the LR of a GFS OP run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:28 PM, WinterWolf said: I wouldn't bet anything on that model....you can Hug it if you want though. Expand Not hugging it at all but many here would be hugging it if it was showing a cold snowy pattern in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:27 PM, Greg said: Definately lean colder right now. Not saying it will be 30-35F all the time during the day but won't be a constant 45-50F either. Expand Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 3:04 PM, dryslot said: DC to BOS has had some good ones in the past where we have sat shaking a snow globe to get the same affect up here. Expand That sucky track also had GC steering at the reddiwhip in our cocoa. Hubb would be doing the same despite the fact that he'd still score in the end. On 12/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Like I said earlier ... the GGEM is the only model that's consistently showing much impact this far up the eastern seaboard over many cycles.. this one is no exception. Which may or may not fit in with folks' preferences for deterministic Meteorology ... probably less. Just sayn'. Expand It's been consistently moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:30 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Not hugging it at all but many here would be hugging it if it was showing a cold snowy pattern in the long term. Expand I think they'd like what it was showing if it was showing snow and cold...but most would know to take that too, with a grain of salt. That model is all over the place in the long range(as are many lately), so I wouldn't be getting to excited either way with what it shows for the LR OP run..but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:19 PM, dendrite said: Good luck Expand Yeah that is a disaster of shortwaves...definitely might not work out for us, but that is a classic recipe for a lot of quick changes in model solutions as each of those gets sampled better (both by satellite and RAOB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:31 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Why? Expand As I said in my earlier post, the GFS is ok with the medium range but with this particular set up it doesn't do well with the northern stream. Again, anything outside of 120 hours should never be taken as etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:34 PM, Greg said: As I said in my earlier post, the GFS is ok with the medium range but with this particular set up it doesn't do well with the northern stream. Again, anyhting outside of 96 hours should never be taken as etched in stone. Expand Why do you lean colder? What are you basing your opinion on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:34 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is a disaster of shortwaves...definitely might not work out for us, but that is a classic recipe for a lot of quick changes in model solutions as each of those gets sampled better (both by satellite and RAOB). Expand Agree. Every run handles these a little differently each time so that's why it's always better to get them onshore before getting too emotional about the model outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:36 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Why do you lean colder? What are you basing your opinion on? Expand Pattern recognition and model correction bias. Understanding the pros and cons of these weather models goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:39 PM, Greg said: Pattern recognition, model correction bias. Understanding the pros and cons of these weather models goes a long way. Expand So you view the pattern as a good one in the long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:29 PM, LurkerBoy said: Are we discussing the LR of a GFS OP run? Expand You're learning young grasshopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:41 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: So you view the pattern as a good one in the long term? Expand Yes, just like Ray has stated also in some of his blogs on here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:33 PM, WinterWolf said: I think they'd like what it was showing if it was showing snow and cold...but most would know to take that too, with a grain of salt. That model is all over the place in the long range(as are many lately), so I wouldn't be getting to excited either way with what it shows for the LR OP run..but that's just me. Expand Usually all it takes is for one good model run for many here to proclaim "cold and snow ahead" It's always the "bad" model runs that get tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:39 PM, dendrite said: Agree. Every run handles these a little differently each time so that's why it's always better to get them onshore before getting too emotional about the model outcomes. Expand Until sampled, It don't matter, Even if our model that is running now shows a bomb at 12z, It needs more time to get sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 5:42 PM, Greg said: Yes, just like Ray has said also. Expand I hope you are right but at this time I do not see anything to base that on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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