Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

December Discussion


NorEastermass128

Recommended Posts

  On 12/3/2018 at 4:03 AM, OceanStWx said:

That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. 

There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. 

Expand  

GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 4.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 12/3/2018 at 12:39 PM, OSUmetstud said:

GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. 

Expand  

It'll be comforting to have our favorite biases still hanging around with the new guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/3/2018 at 5:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its not weenie urban legend...latent heat release from convective processes enhance upstream ridging.

Expand  

Last January's bomb being a pretty classic example. Modeling continued correcting north right up until go-time. I believe the mesos had a better handle than the globals as well, as they picked up the convective nature of the system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 11/29/2018 at 10:52 PM, LurkerBoy said:

What’s “mild”? And what’s the 10-14 day time frame?

Expand  

 

  On 11/29/2018 at 11:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Warm but not hot = mild. 10-14 day timeframe is 10-14 days from today. Count 10 days from today, that 10. Add 4 days to that day and you have 14. 

Expand  

 

  On 11/29/2018 at 11:20 PM, LurkerBoy said:

You suck , I thought he meant a 10-14 day threshold. And mild does NOT have a standard definition onthis board.

Expand  

 

  On 12/3/2018 at 1:38 PM, LurkerBoy said:

It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish

Expand  

 

  On 12/3/2018 at 1:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is mild?

Expand  

 

  On 12/3/2018 at 2:01 PM, LurkerBoy said:

it's less spicy than medium

Expand  

 

  On 12/3/2018 at 2:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You suck.

Expand  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/3/2018 at 2:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym 

Expand  

I should tell my wife to scout..(she’s off limits....besides I think you’re probably looking for those under age 60).  She goes to a women’s gym.

It will be nice to get more climo appropriate temperatures after today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s really not that far off, esp considering lead time and what it typically does with these, from dropping the northern stream in on that second wave early next week and getting it up here.

Expand  

It just phases that one a little late and keeps it offshore, Way to early to get invested in any of these scenarios right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/3/2018 at 4:33 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS.  Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in.  

If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24.

Expand  

I don't know if I'd be saying that at this lead time...GFS is notoriously bad with set ups like this, and it's a very complicated set up with many SW's all over the place in the flow...models are going to struggle for a while on this...it's far from figured out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...