OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:03 AM, OceanStWx said: That can be true for southern stream waves that have a lot of convection. Modeling (and GFS in particular) can have a progressive bias, and the latent heat release and resulting ridge building ahead of stronger systems can be underforecast by NWP. There is a physical explanation for the NW trend. Expand GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 12:39 PM, OSUmetstud said: GFS is almost unusable with storms like that. The same thing appears to be happening with the Day 4 low and my weather. ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EPS etc. are all further northwest and a "hit" while the GFS is a clear miss to the southeast. The FV3 is a bit closer, but still a miss. Expand It'll be comforting to have our favorite biases still hanging around with the new guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its not weenie urban legend...latent heat release from convective processes enhance upstream ridging. Expand Last January's bomb being a pretty classic example. Modeling continued correcting north right up until go-time. I believe the mesos had a better handle than the globals as well, as they picked up the convective nature of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:49 AM, WinterWolf said: lol ya, you love busting chops. But I was asking a serious question to Anthony....what has changed for him to change his tune?? Expand I'm a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 12:46 PM, OceanStWx said: It'll be comforting to have our favorite biases still hanging around with the new guy. Expand Yes, it seems a bit better from what I've noticed, but I think its still there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 1:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. Expand the wennies are holding you to that Tip...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 1:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again. Expand It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 1:38 PM, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Expand Isotherm expects the 2nd half of December after the brief warmup to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 1:38 PM, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Expand What is mild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 1:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What is mild? Expand it's less spicy than medium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:01 PM, LurkerBoy said: it's less spicy than medium Expand You suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Could use 3-5 days of this to thaw out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You suck. Expand Lmao....he gave you a bit of your own sarcasm right there. Gotta give him credit for that one. Nice comeback by Lurker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:12 PM, WinterWolf said: Lmao....he gave you a bit of your own sarcasm right there. Gotta give him credit for that one. Nice comeback by Lurker.... Expand It was sarcastically flipped from our previous encounter. so, whooosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It was sarcastically flipped from our previous encounter. so, whooosh. Expand No, I caught that Berg....c'mon now, I just wanted to give Lurker a bit of credit-he's learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Suppression depression setting in for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 11/29/2018 at 10:52 PM, LurkerBoy said: What’s “mild”? And what’s the 10-14 day time frame? Expand On 11/29/2018 at 11:05 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Warm but not hot = mild. 10-14 day timeframe is 10-14 days from today. Count 10 days from today, that 10. Add 4 days to that day and you have 14. Expand On 11/29/2018 at 11:20 PM, LurkerBoy said: You suck , I thought he meant a 10-14 day threshold. And mild does NOT have a standard definition onthis board. Expand On 12/3/2018 at 1:38 PM, LurkerBoy said: It doesn't look THAT bad heading into xmas, just mildish Expand On 12/3/2018 at 1:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What is mild? Expand On 12/3/2018 at 2:01 PM, LurkerBoy said: it's less spicy than medium Expand On 12/3/2018 at 2:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You suck. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:30 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Suppression depression setting in for some. Expand More will succumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:48 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: More will succumb Expand I’m going to the gym after work tonight. Will keep my eyes out for you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:51 PM, weathafella said: I’m going to the gym after work tonight. Will keep my eyes out for you.... Expand Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym Expand I should tell my wife to scout..(she’s off limits....besides I think you’re probably looking for those under age 60). She goes to a women’s gym. It will be nice to get more climo appropriate temperatures after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:32 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Expand And I thought I had too much time on my hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:09 PM, dendrite said: Could use 3-5 days of this to thaw out a bit. Expand We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 2:52 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless ur transitioning, you won’t see me. I work at a women’s gym Expand "work" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 gfs no dice for weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS. Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in. If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It’s really not that far off, esp considering lead time and what it typically does with these, from dropping the northern stream in on that second wave early next week and getting it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s really not that far off, esp considering lead time and what it typically does with these, from dropping the northern stream in on that second wave early next week and getting it up here. Expand It just phases that one a little late and keeps it offshore, Way to early to get invested in any of these scenarios right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:33 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Suppression depression baby on the 12z GFS. Climo temps and sun and then the AN temps surge in. If you like snow, may need to close the shades until after 12/24. Expand I don't know if I'd be saying that at this lead time...GFS is notoriously bad with set ups like this, and it's a very complicated set up with many SW's all over the place in the flow...models are going to struggle for a while on this...it's far from figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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