moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 7:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take that EURO run verbatim...JP run for me.....H7 and CF. Keep that high sliding east, but first things first...lets keep the storm. Expand Don't forget your back-end upsloping. That'll be good for another several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 9:59 AM, Ginx snewx said: Woke up by call from work and saw the radar up north, congrats Dendrite in case he missed it before the switch when he wakes up Expand wtf it’s white out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 10:20 AM, Ginx snewx said: Congrats Bobalouie Expand We don’t toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t toss Expand GC nightmares of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 .5" for the southern tip of the Vineyard, 7" northern tip. Has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 11:38 AM, dendrite said: wtf it’s white out there. Expand Eyeballing about 2 inches on my car. But light rain now. Thought we might lose the snow packed by tomorrow morning but maybe we hang on, freeze up and then get a north and west trend later in the week. Then we’re good straight to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t tossCan always adjust up as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 About 1" of mush and now a ZR/RN mix. Saw some branches down from the still snow laden trees...lots of weight on a lot of trees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:39 PM, powderfreak said: About 1" of mush and now a ZR/RN mix. Saw some branches down from the still snow laden trees...lots of weight on a lot of trees right now. Expand Heard there were still folks out of power, yea even adding a little weight can be a tipping point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t toss Expand On 12/2/2018 at 12:33 PM, butterfish55 said: On 12/2/2018 at 12:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We don’t toss Expand Can always adjust up as we get closer Expand The hits keep coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The ensembles look like a Mid Atlantic special. We’ll need to slow things down a bit. I think the kicker off the west coast sort of helps prevent this from turning up the coast on the mean. Not a bad spot to be this far out knowing these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:23 PM, moneypitmike said: GC nightmares of yore. Expand Both Pits with QPF sorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Its dumping on the Sugarloaf cam, they are full open. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 1:32 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Both Pits with QPF sorrows. Expand Indeed. Events with those tracks just suck through and through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 12:24 PM, mahk_webstah said: Eyeballing about 2 inches on my car. But light rain now. Thought we might lose the snow packed by tomorrow morning but maybe we hang on, freeze up and then get a north and west trend later in the week. Then we’re good straight to March Expand Seems a little high of an estimate. Had 1.0” here, but the Canterbury and Boscawen reports on cocorahs are in the 1/2”-3/4” range. I don’t recall where you are in town though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 We watch and we wait. Still many adjustments to make. The high position has me concerned, but it’s so far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 People really do experiences a sense of exhilaration whenever that cinema portrays a bomb. Wow... that was fast. Instead pumping the meat, as Will oft' likes to recommend ... 'pump the breaks.' Seems apropos at this juncture. ... A little disillusionment is probably a good thing for this present era, when verification tendencies have recently trended toward LESS than the panache of D 6-10 suggestions in general. Or not ... go ahead and get our dopamine flush, only to maximize our fall if we like - up to us. I suspect people can't stop themselves, though. Be that as it may, that is D9 + and it's one run ...let's just keep that in mind, how ever difficult it is to do so. Trying to employ a dose of healthy skepticism to counter-act the drug of the models .... I don't see that general canvas of synoptic evolution out there in time as being very favorable for that 'needle thread' solution. Having said that ... needle threading means just that: in a hostile environment, getting anything to happen is an engagement of narrow tolerances, so to be far - we'll see. However, the flow initially (day 3-5) is too compressed... Heights over Florida and adjacent are lofty... and as this week's cold presses through the NP-Lakes and OV regions, it is speeding up the flow too fast for individual S/Ws... It's interesting that both the Euro and the GGEM are not seeing that, and are maintaining southern stream cohesion as they propagate what is really only a mid-range wave mechanics right through said compression. I can 'imagine' a way in which that is possible (as an offset); it may be ...the heights over Florida (used just for identification purpose - there's nothing inherent to Florida's existence) are in the process of differentiating lower, "AS" said southern stream mechanics are arriving..That sort of relay my give a faux impression that the mechanics are doing that but it's really a hidden larger --> smaller scale change if that were the case. So, we'll see where we go on modeling. Obviously...being D9 ...all this and everything governing will likely change anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 1:34 PM, Ginx snewx said: Its dumping on the Sugarloaf cam, they are full open. Unreal Expand My brother and nieces were skiing the woods there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I love cold December rains disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 1:54 PM, dendrite said: Seems a little high of an estimate. Had 1.0” here, but the Canterbury and Boscawen reports on cocorahs are in the 1/2”-3/4” range. I don’t recall where you are in town though. Expand Water Street up on a hill, a couple of hundred feet highter than the main street near the river. Was definitely more than an inch...I think close to 2. But I didn't measure. We usually are the same as Canterbury though, and you as well but we had less than you last week I'm pretty sure. We went out walking at 8 when it was already raining for 2 hours and it was more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 John, I don't like the weekend even for being a snow event right now, unless I see a change overall in the synoptics involved. Given lack of an arctic shortwave impetus for phasing potential, I don't see how with a high north of the storm moving eastward too quickly will produce southeasterly winds instead of Northeasterly or even northerly. There is no cold air drainage present for the coastal plain southeast of the I95 corridor, we need to either see the lead shortwave slow down in future runs, or the backside shortwave phase in deeply with the southern stream disturbance. Without the phase the arctic airmass before the storm on Thursday and Friday lifts northward, it is going to be quite cold on Thursday and Friday across all of the region. There is deep 850mb cold present with that midweek arctic front and trough. If we can maintain decent mid-level jet dynamics with that arctic shortwave and have it dig further southeast, maybe we can get an appetizing event with a miller B snowstorm scenario, that would produce a 1-3 or 3-6" event, the models want to produce a strong cyclone with this frontal system, just too far northeast into Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Can't believe they are full open. Nuts On 12/2/2018 at 1:34 PM, Ginx snewx said: Its dumping on the Sugarloaf cam, they are full open. UnrealSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 A lot of model consensus in a major storm next weekend-details TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 4:17 PM, weathafella said: A lot of model consensus in a major storm next weekend-details TBD Expand I think this run of the GFS might keep the high north of the storm, which could suppress it from reaching the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Ridge is better than 6z, this should come closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 4:20 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think this run of the GFS might keep the high north of the storm, which could suppress it from reaching the benchmark. Expand I think suppression is the bigger risk vs a cutter or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 On 12/2/2018 at 4:24 PM, CoastalWx said: I think suppression is the bigger risk vs a cutter or something. Expand I agree, unless the arctic or polar shortwave can phase in the backside of the long wave southern stream trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That sure is nice on the gfs with the H5 low turning to stack but in any case passing under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Nice improvement. Kinda looks euroish but delayd by a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 988 over the bowel movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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