Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,911
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elbel4053
    Newest Member
    Elbel4053
    Joined

December Discussion

NorEastermass128

By NorEastermass128,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 11/30/2018 at 10:15 PM, Zach’s Pop said:

Lol you have been saying that for 7 days. 

Expand  

Right ... seven days ago, he was talking about week 3 ... now, he's talking about week 2  - see how that works?

But...just ball bustin'

I wanna believe it - I really do... but, the warm up here in the nearer term slated for Sunday was originally, three weeks or so ago... indexed to be the same sort of big warm up to end Novie and head into December. As it came into range... we do the quick warm sector.

We actually see this a lot in the spring ..ironically... where in late April, the models start flagging the season's first 10 day apocalyps... actually, come to think about it .. the models/indices start that behavior toward the end of February in years that aren't getting a late savior by a -NAO... 

Anyway, so as they near ... the 3 to 5 days of huge anomaly shrinks down to an 18 hour dirty warm sector and this did exactly the same thing.

I need a compelling reason to assess this next series won't end up the same way.  Mind you, ...I'm just going seasonal trend and owning to known model/index biases.  There may be a big warm up out there... watch it be a January thaw. 

or whatever... I don't really have any horses in the race on this, but I'm interesting in just how relaxed the pattern will be before (I suspect) it reloads. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/30/2018 at 11:14 PM, weathafella said:

Mine hates winter.  Spent most of his life in California....

Expand  

Mine is a surfer, skier who has a home business booming making and selling house numbers and signs made from driftwood.  He got his artistic side from his Mom.

 

I dont know what Scott sees but I am not seeing anything stable in AK at all, definitely not a black hole. Lots of hype over a reshuffle.  ImHO this week or so period will be forgotten when we look back. We mute

Link to comment
Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

I think we have too many arctic s/w's in the flow right now coming out of the Arctic due to the presence of the polar vortex on our side of the hemisphere and due to the -AO.  Cold air shots with each passing arctic front, one of these energetic disturbances will set off a winter storm.  I think one will at least dig enough southeastward to get a storm off the Cape Cod coastline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 2:56 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think we have too many arctic s/w's in the flow right now coming out of the Arctic due to the presence of the polar vortex on our side of the hemisphere and due to the -AO.  Cold air shots with each passing arctic front, one of these energetic disturbances will set off a winter storm.  I think one will at least dig enough southeastward to get a storm off the Cape Cod coastline.

Expand  

Or....right over Cape Cod. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 12:02 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Mine is a surfer, skier who has a home business booming making and selling house numbers and signs made from driftwood.  He got his artistic side from his Mom.

 

I dont know what Scott sees but I am not seeing anything stable in AK at all, definitely not a black hole. Lots of hype over a reshuffle.  ImHO this week or so period will be forgotten when we look back. We mute

Expand  

You don't see massive Blue from Canadian NW to Kamchatka?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 3:03 AM, CoastalWx said:

Forgettable.

Expand  

Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable.

Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow.

Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 3:20 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable.

Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow.

Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here 

Expand  

The further we go into December, the cooler the SSTs will be a climate will be in our favor to receive snow on Cape Cod.  I think the December 9th system is possible, but I am not giving up on the December 5th potential as there are a lot of arctic shortwaves present, one will amplify and explode as 850mb delta ts will exceed 30C over the Gulf Stream, allowing explosive cyclogenesis to occur off the NJ coastline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 3:20 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty rare to see a 6” event here in November, never mind middle of the month. That was definitely memorable.

Feels like we wasted a pretty nice pattern overall though. Tons of cold rain. If these last 2-3 weeks happened a month later, we’d probably be dancing around in feet of snow.

Still, 6” is a memorable event this early here 

Expand  

The last two weeks could have used a little something. The November event was excellent, just wish we could have added a couple. I'm well aware of climo, but we also had a winter climo last two weeks, so it was possible. Oh well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

I don't expect anyone to ever tell me to not be optimistic about a chance for a storm to develop, its just not in my nature to take things slowly and not care.  I see positive trends in the guidance for the next two weeks of weather, perhaps aiding on the side of cold and snowy.  The rather prolonged -AO means the Arctic is open for fresh cold air masses to infiltrate as far south as the 38N latitude line.  That should bode well for at least a shot at one or two nor'easters, Miller B snowstorm type.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 3:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Please list your Novembers to remember. Sorry you missed out. 

Expand  

I had as much as you did.   Hey I don't regret it, but could have capitalized more. I don't see that as unreasonable.  Like i said before, some years we have nothing until Jan..so I appreciate Novie snow. I'm also looking ahead and not seeing anything to exciting except for day 9 fantasies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2018 at 3:47 AM, 78Blizzard said:

These next 16 days will be very forgettable if the 18z GFS verifies.  A little over 0.5" qpf, 90% of which falls on Sunday, and after Monday near normal temps for my hood during the period.  Will finish the leaf harvesting tomorrow.

Expand  

You are talking about the possibility that an Operational GFS run of the 18z hour being correct for 16 days, come on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...