NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Since this forum runs on an "AEMATT" theme and since E MA is out of the game through the end of November, I thought I'd kick off the December discussion. It looks like we have a few cutters and/or huggers to start off the first couple weeks of the first winter month. Rumors of one-eyed piglets sightings near AK too. NAO rising, PNA dropping, AO solidly negative but rising...... What will December bring? Joy or dismay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Since this forum runs on an "AEMATT" theme and since E MA is out of the game through the end of November, I thought I'd kick off the December discussion. It looks like we have a few cutters and/or huggers to start off the first couple weeks of the first winter month. Rumors of one-eyed piglets sightings near AK too. NAO rising, PNA dropping, AO solidly negative but rising...... What will December bring? Joy or dismay? Looks like it will get bad, but for how long? As I stated before as long as the respected mets and bloggers on American Weather do not amend their good to great winter forecasts no need to worry. Even if the pig shows up for 3 full weeks we can put together another solidly above average snowfall winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like it will get bad, but for how long? As I stated before as long as the respected mets and bloggers on American Weather do not amend their good to great winter forecasts no need to worry. Even if the pig shows up for 3 full weeks we can put together another solidly above average snowfall winter. I'm secretly coveting a hope that it's stays bad ...right through until next May... It would assist in helping to drive points home to a collection of minds that are apparently homeless. But that aside, I was just saying to Will in the other thread that there's some chance the pattern look of mid Dec is false - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 It may end up being nothing, but near dawn saturday could feature some light snow or rain from a weakening system ahead of the larger and probably more liquid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 December looks fine . There’s this idea floating around that the EPS is correct . It got Novie 100% wrong.. chances are it’s got the December post day 14 forecast wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: December looks fine . There’s this idea floating around that the EPS is correct . It got Novie 100% wrong.. chances are it’s got the December post day 14 forecast wrong too. If it's like the GEFS we probably will relax, but not super torchy. If one extrapolated the EPS..it probably would turn into a conus wide Chinook. I feel like a mild up is inevitable to a point, but as to how much and how long...I don't know. In the meantime, we have a chance of trying to score something before that occurs. Hopefully we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: It'd be funny if my coldest high temp for the winter happened on 11/22 (13F). We usually pull a single digiter at least once, but if we lose the big cold in Canada and just time a cold shot poorly it could actually happen. October has been my snowiest month before so stranger things have happened. I feel like we'll return to this post in late March and go..."Wow! Spot on!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I feel like we'll return to this post in late March and go..."Wow! Spot on!" Ain't happening James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Observation...be careful with all the SST anomaly maps. I've seen a lot of maps of regions 1 & 2 with the greatest anomalies but it appears from CPC data it's region 3 & the blip in region 4. Subsurface anomalies showing warmth surface in region 3 & if you look at towards the end of the animation it appears to move west as it surfaces. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 31 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I feel like we'll return to this post in late March and go..."Wow! Spot on!" Holy crap what a bunch of Debbie's....pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Holy crap what a bunch of Debbie's....pathetic. Yowzers! Angry wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Holy crap what a bunch of Debbie's....pathetic. Yikes...I was only joking. Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline. Nino Decembers tend to be iffy. That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall. 0s/10s are for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I already have 2/3 Of my snowfall from ‘11-‘12 so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I'm checking out for the time being, as far as any bonafide analysis goes....just chit chat for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Yikes...I was only joking. Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline. Nino Decembers tend to be iffy. That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall. 0s/10s are for the birds. lol oh ok. Thought you were serious. Hey anything can happen, but I'm not overly concerned at the moment at all. If it all goes to sh*t then so be it, but I'm not thinking it or seeing it at the moment. I never buy into the wire to wire BS, so my expectations aren't sky high either. And yes you're right about Nino's getting going a little later, so I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 37 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Yikes...I was only joking. Historically, Nino winters don't get going to the second half anyway, so I'm sure there will be plenty of cold/snow in the pipeline. Nino Decembers tend to be iffy. That being said, I wouldn't mind 20s/30s going forward with well AN snowfall. 0s/10s are for the birds. Depends on what you mean by second half. I think a late December early January is actually still on the relatively early side. Of course I mean true winter starting on December 21st and not meteorology winter starting December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks Considering we got the lion's share of December's snowfall in November, I would not worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks You got bonus snows/snow cover in November. That's a win. Early DEC offers up some hope as Will said before a possible relaxation mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Considering we got the lion's share of December's snowfall in November, I would not worry about it. Correct! 24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: You got bonus snows/snow cover in November. That's a win. Early DEC offers up some hope as Will said before a possible relaxation mid month. This too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you lose December, you lose an entire month of winter and are left hoping for 2 good months if you’re lucky. No thanks I know, right? Then you have to hope January is better because if not, come mid Feb you can start to feel a little more UV on the nape. By the Ides of March we approach full nape. It's like winter is already over before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I already have 2/3 Of my snowfall from ‘11-‘12 so there’s that. Yeah, I'm like 1/2. We're on to January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm checking out for the time being, as far as any bonafide analysis goes....just chit chat for the time being. I thought Metfan said we should watch Nov 30th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I thought Metfan said we should watch Nov 30th? He’s a special talent that one, great potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I know, right? Then you have to hope January is better because if not, come mid Feb you can start to feel a little more UV on the nape. By the Ides of March we approach full nape. It's like winter is already over before it started. Right???? I mean I think it's just about over now...No???? We had a significant snow event in November and Record Cold too, I mean what else do we need?? Bring on Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I thought Metfan said we should watch Nov 30th? It looked good like a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 The Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model.... lovingly referred to as the "FV3-GFS" ... is simply not interested in a warm up through D15 in the 00z run ...for how little that's worth. In fact, it blue bombs us D9 and threatens a dynamical arctic powder poof three days later, while the EPS and GFS are stringing endless 1" transparent QPFers west of NE. 06z was less winter optimistic but we still definitively colder overall. Interesting... granted, this is experimental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looked good like a week ago. For whom? It never looked promising for me when I looked at it prior to Thanksgiving. NNE looked ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 We’re not losing fukking December! Taken verbatim, we’re wintry for most of the first half. We may relax for 10 days thereafter but my money is on a nice holiday period after an obligatory grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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