11/27 - Everything and the Kitchen Sink Obs

[qg_omega]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The HRRR runs continue to track the low into VT from the Berkshires.  Interesting.

This looks good from Gore to Whiteface above 1500 feet

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Forecast soundings have actually settled into a nice little consensus, with the NAM, GFS, and FV3 all between 3.5 and 5 inches for GYX. Maybe a little more at 700 ft in Raymond.

If this type of system puts that much at GYX, I'll be moving snow tomorrow rather than commuting to Augusta.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can see the cooler, drier air advecting through Maine from the NE on vis sat. Keep it coming.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-01-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Clearly the high pressure is not retreating at the moment.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If this type of system puts that much at GYX, I'll be moving snow tomorrow rather than commuting to Augusta.

I think your spot has the most boom or bust potential. If the mid level lows can stall out to your SW, you may stay in the inflow most of the day tomorrow. Then it becomes an elevation dependent event. In and up could do well.

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say at 925 the euro hasn’t really wavered in 24 hrs. Seems rather steadfast there curling into lakes region 

I don't know about this Euro  caving but OK. PF upslope city after too. That's a lot of frozen precip.

[dryslot]

Quite evident that its holding or building on that goes16 shot, Keep er goin.

[OceanStWx]

GNR dew down to 24. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

GNR dew down to 24. 

Inflow is going to be sick.  

[Ginx snewx]

Pick your hometown kids. Frozen precip as snow w/e. There are already a million without power just saying 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't know about this Euro  caving but OK. PF upslope city after too. That's a lot of frozen precip.

 

 

Check out the several euro runs from about 54-72 hours out. They had a pretty rapidly developing low near PVC or just north with the ML centers quickly getting organized there. That's CCB city for CNE. The thing is well NW of that now on model guidance. It was a miss by the euro on that. Granted, areas like the mahoosucs/whites/greens were going to get good snows even on the other solutions...it was just how that was going to occur...and those older euro runs would have slammed closer to the coast like PWM just off the water. 

We're not talking 2010 Boxing Day bust here but it was defeated in that time range by the other guidance...it wasn't the usual 70/30 euro win. That's all. 

It will still be a pretty sweet event to track. Wish I was up at SR for this one. 

[dendrite]

Yeah around 1" QPF as snow on those maps, but it's going to be gloppy for a time.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah around 1" QPF as snow on those maps, but it's going to be gloppy for a time.

Embrace it.  That's what 75% of the snow I see is like.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Embrace it.  That's what 75% of the snow I see is like.

Flashbacks to growing up in SE NH during the late 90s.

[Lava Rock]

32.2f. would like to hold that if possible

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

Kinda funny to see N NH and VT so torchy. Cooler here than in those places. Hopefully that low-level CAA can overperform.

[dryslot]

Overcast, 34/32°F

[CoastalWx]

Yeah compared to where the euro had the low and where is forecasted now is a bust. That’s not gonna happen.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Check out the several euro runs from about 54-72 hours out. They had a pretty rapidly developing low near PVC or just north with the ML centers quickly getting organized there. That's CCB city for CNE. The thing is well NW of that now on model guidance. It was a miss by the euro on that. Granted, areas like the mahoosucs/whites/greens were going to get good snows even on the other solutions...it was just how that was going to occur...and those older euro runs would have slammed closer to the coast like PWM just off the water. 

We're not talking 2010 Boxing Day bust here but it was defeated in that time range by the other guidance...it wasn't the usual 70/30 euro win. That's all. 

It will still be a pretty sweet event to track. Wish I was up at SR for this one. 

IDK about a cave when the GFS CMC drove rains to the Canadian border and had Gene freakin out. Guess we will see in the end. I should say Nov 15th we read cave after cave post on the Euro day before. Like Scooter said the Euros 925 has been consistent within 25 miles.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda funny to see N NH and VT so torchy. Cooler here than in those places. Hopefully that low-level CAA can overperform.

Little downsloping going on?

[Ginx snewx]

Old Euro runs and today. If we are talking 25 to 30 miles of a rain snow line on the coast hardly a "bust" if things play out as the Euro depicts

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pick your hometown kids. Frozen precip as snow w/e. There are already a million without power just saying 

Ginx, you got these maps for SW NH , W Ma

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ginx, you got these maps for SW NH , W Ma

Free on weather.us

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK about a cave when the GFS CMC drove rains to the Canadian border and had Gene freakin out. Guess we will see in the end. I should say Nov 15th we read cave after cave post on the Euro day before. Like Scooter said the Euros 925 has been consistent within 25 miles.

 Yeah but looking at it from about three days out or so until now it’s definitely changed positions. 

[wxeyeNH]

34.2/26  No precip at them moment but have some brief  SN/RN showers past hour.  Temp and dew have remained almost the same all day. Surprised radar is showing echoes but nothing happening. 

[powderfreak]

18z HRRR... hopefully it goes more to the coast line as Coastalwx was thinking earlier.  It just wants to blast this thing up into the mountains.

[qg_omega]

Gore to Whiteface jack on that map

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

34.2/26  No precip at them moment but have some brief  SN/RN showers past hour.  Temp and dew have remained almost the same all day. Surprised radar is showing echoes but nothing happening. 

I think your dew is a little off. The lowest METAR in NH is 32F right now. The 1300'-1500' stations in western Merrimack Co. are all near 100% RH with a temp of 31-32F.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think your dew is a little off. The lowest METAR in NH is 32F right now. The 1300'-1500' stations in western Merrimack Co. are all near 100% RH with a temp of 31-32F.

Dewgate

[wxeyeNH]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think your dew is a little off. The lowest METAR in NH is 32F right now. The 1300'-1500' stations in western Merrimack Co. are all near 100% RH with a temp of 31-32F.

Brian,  obviously you are right because Im in and out of the low clouds and there should not be such a spread.  I got to figure out what is wrong with the Davis and how to correct it..  Temp seems fine.

34.1F Light snow has begun again.

[jbenedet]

These large cut-off lows are notoriously fickle in determining where the best surface pressure falls should be located. At times they seem to defy the laws of physics. I’m not sure why a primary would be stopped in its tracks going into western NY only to see a subsequent surface low develop near NJ and immediately track into the region that forced the redevelopment. To my mind the UL jet and baroclincity maximize surface pressure falls further southeast than the consensus—just off the coast—- but I’ve felt this way for several days and here we are...