dryslot Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I see GYX went WWA here 3-5" with amounts up to 8" in the higher elevations, Still skeptical of those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Raymond On 11/26/2018 at 4:05 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 700’ FTW potentially . lava rock, what city/town are you in in Maine Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Seems like the euro caved. Though I wasn’t hawk eye tracking this tbh but the more inland srf track seems to be most likely outcome. Euro was continuously east of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like the euro caved. Though I wasn’t hawk eye tracking this tbh but the more inland srf track seems to be most likely outcome. Euro was continuously east of consensus. Expand Seems like a broad area of low pressure inland and another near coast hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like the euro caved. Though I wasn’t hawk eye tracking this tbh but the more inland srf track seems to be most likely outcome. Euro was continuously east of consensus. Expand Yep. It got warmer over time too from about 60 hours inward. It is definitely a developing story that we will have to monitor going forward. Hopefully it does not turn into a recurring bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like the euro caved. Though I wasn’t hawk eye tracking this tbh but the more inland srf track seems to be most likely outcome. Euro was continuously east of consensus. Expand It was still marginal for coast and the coastal plain other then a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Hoping for a decent hit in the southern Vermont mountains. Had about a 10” snow pack at the new house yesterday. It’s down in a hemlock grove in a river gorge at 1100’. Great spot for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:34 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yep. It got warmer over time too from about 60 hours inward. It is definitely a developing story that we will have to monitor going forward. Hopefully it does not turn into a recurring bias. Expand Done that a few times this month. Agreed it will be concerning if you can never know if you can trust a colder EURO run compared to guidance this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 NCEP ticked a little colder with time too...especially the NAM. We're still waiting for the GFS to cave a bit at 2m. It did a little at 12z, but it's still trying to get me to 40F. They'll all probably meet in th middle somewhere of where they were a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:43 PM, powderfreak said: Done that a few times this month. Agreed it will be concerning if you can never know if you can trust a colder EURO run compared to guidance this winter. Expand The Reggie hasn't been too hot this season either. Been over amping systems. Sucks cause those two models were like the heavy weights of the last couple of seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 RGEM has been awful quite honestly, Been to cold in many instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Rgem had its run couple seasons ago. It was playing over its head with an inflated babip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 4:56 PM, dendrite said: NCEP ticked a little colder with time too...especially the NAM. We're still waiting for the GFS to cave a bit at 2m. It did a little at 12z, but it's still trying to get me to 40F. They'll all probably meet in th middle somewhere of where they were a few days ago. Expand It's very rarely 100/0 in favor of a model but the euro is losing these battles recently. It's not the usual 70/30 win for it. Seems like it is on the wrong side of 50/50. Granted, it's a sample size of two systems so maybe it doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 3:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah elevation will mean a lot. Be curious to see how Lava does Expand Forecast soundings have actually settled into a nice little consensus, with the NAM, GFS, and FV3 all between 3.5 and 5 inches for GYX. Maybe a little more at 700 ft in Raymond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 All models agree we'll have to do our heavy lifting between midnight and 4 AM or so. Could easily rip 1"/hr there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 34.4F Light snow keeps starting and stopping. Temps have remained fairly steady the past few hours 34.3-34.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:21 PM, wxeyeNH said: 34.4F Light snow keeps starting and stopping. Temps have remained fairly steady the past few hours 34.3-34.7F Expand 34.8F and SHRA, but I'm not home. Just going by the Davis and cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:23 PM, dendrite said: 34.8F and SHRA, but I'm not home. Just going by the Davis and cam. Expand Just deeper cold air up there? Doesn’t seem unreasonable it will snow at our 600ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Rgem had its run couple seasons ago. It was playing over its head with an inflated babip. Expand Yea, 2014-2015 was it's 2017 Marwin Gonzalez/2016 Jonathan Villar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 The HRRR runs continue to track the low into VT from the Berkshires. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 I will say at 925 the euro hasn’t really wavered in 24 hrs. Seems rather steadfast there curling into lakes region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:36 PM, powderfreak said: The HRRR runs continue to track the low into VT from the Berkshires. Interesting. Expand I mention this earlier, but it’s going to be a broad area of low pressure with the small little center probably near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:38 PM, CoastalWx said: I mention this earlier, but it’s going to be a broad area of low pressure with the small little center probably near the coast. Expand How would that effect things like mid level magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:50 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: How would that effect things like mid level magic Expand This doesn't seem like a system for that with the primary so far west. Mid-levels aren't nice and compact, seems spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:50 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: How would that effect things like mid level magic Expand On 11/26/2018 at 5:54 PM, powderfreak said: This doesn't seem like a system for that with the primary so far west. Mid-levels aren't nice and compact, seems spread out. Expand Yeah this seems like deformation is out of play for us on this one, but more of a WAA thump into maybe a fire hose into the mountains instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 5:54 PM, powderfreak said: This doesn't seem like a system for that with the primary so far west. Mid-levels aren't nice and compact, seems spread out. Expand No it’s more like a showery fire hose coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 3:05 PM, alex said: By the way just drove into North Conway. Interesting how balmy it is, yet got into some light snow in the notch at 35F. 35 at home, 38 here Expand It always snows in the notch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 You can see the cooler, drier air advecting through Maine from the NE on vis sat. Keep it coming. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-01-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro holds with the track east of other guidance. 34.4F very light snow. Real precip shield about 25 miles SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 On 11/26/2018 at 6:03 PM, dendrite said: You can see the cooler, drier air advecting through Maine from the NE on vis sat. Keep it coming. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-01-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Expand Speaking of drier air, that's what I'm noticing as a difference from other snow events this month. Dews in like the mid-30s here with fog and mist. The other events it was like 40/25 moving in. This has the feel of a more elevational dependent event than a few others we've seen this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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