December 2018 temperature forecast contest and conclusion of the Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

I hope you've had an enjoyable Thanksgiving break, now ...

With many of the contests close in terms of scoring, this is the final month of competition for 2018 ... and the usual forecast challenge ...

predict the anomalies relative to 1981-2010 in F deg for 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

The usual late penalties apply.

Good luck ! 

(NYC leads Regional Rumble by a not quite insurmountable margin, see provisional scoring for NOV for details).

[Tom]

DCA: -0.9

NYC: -0.8

BOS: -0.9

ORD: -1.9

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.2

DEN: -0.6

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +0.8

 

Philly

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

DCA: -1.1

NYC: -0.9

BOS: -0.7

ORD: -0.9

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.5

DEN: -0.4

PHX: +0.7

SEA: + 0.6

[wxallannj]

•  

•  

 

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +0.4

BOS: +0.4

ORD: +1.1

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +1.7

DEN: +1.4

PHX: +1.6

SEA: + 0.3

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.0        1.0      0.5       1.5    1.5        -0.5      1.0     0.0                         

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5    -0.6     -1.0       -0.2       1.0   1.2         0.3      0.5     1.1

 

NYC subforum

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.9

NYC: +0.3

BOS: -0.2

ORD: -1.2

ATL: +0.7

IAH: +0.4

DEN: +0.6

PHX: +1.8

SEA: +1.4

 

NYC

[bkviking]

DCA: -0.4

NYC: -0.6

BOS: -0.8

ORD: -1.5

ATL: -1.9

IAH: -0.2

DEN: -0.2

PHX: +0.9

SEA: +0.8

  NYC forum 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.0      0.0     -0.6      0.7     -0.5    0.2         0.7     1.0     0.3

[Stebo]

DCA: -1.2

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -2.1

ORD: +0.8

ATL: -2.5

IAH: -1.2

DEN: -1.0

PHX: -1.5

SEA: +1.2

[dmillz25]

DCA: -1.9

NYC: -2.5

BOS: -2.5

ORD: -2.0

ATL: -2.5

IAH: -1.2

DEN: +1.0

PHX: -1.0

 SEA: +1.5

 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -3.1

NYC:  -2.8

BOS:  -2.9

ORD:  -2.7

ATL:  -1.4

IAH:  -0.4

DEN:  -2.1

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  +1.9

[Roger Smith]

--1.0 _ --1.3 _ --1.0 ___ --0.9 _ --1.3 _ --0.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.8

[Rjay]

DCA: -1.0

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.0

ORD: -1.0

ATL: -1.0

IAH: -1.0

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.0

[Roger Smith]

 

__ Holiday greetings to all, considered no late penalty for RJay after considering his efforts to assist the contest and in view of positional advantage being nil with the forecasts supplied vs points needed  but will apply one for the integrity of the Regional Rumble __ check the up to date scoring report in the November contest thread to see how close the annual scoring races are, Regional Rumble is not quite a lock yet for NYC but looking at the range of their forecasts this month, can't really see how anyone catches them, short of one of the Mid-Atl dynamic duo having a perfect set of predictions. Even then, 190 points to catch up (PHL probably too far back now). The individual all-nine is probably still in contention for the top five or six at least. Scotty Lightning had a lead of 23 over myself and I was 18 ahead of wxallannj after November, BKV and DonS are lurking not far behind.

__ in any case, will post a list of total scores without late penalties for all regular contestants after this month, to show how you compare with no late penalties applied __ I have not done that all year and will be interested to see it myself.

__ I invite any of you to post any thoughts (or send by PM) about future of this contest, I am willing to continue what I have been doing, or I could step aside for a new host and then I would be willing to continue scoring while that new host does the meet and greet portion of the contest? up to you folks, I am somewhat disappointed that I cannot seem to increase the numbers even with the Rumble concept, and we've gradually lost quite a few regulars which may or may not be related to my being the host? Don't know, I wonder if perhaps my controversial methods or possibly storm busts in regional forums have an effect on contest support, although really one's decision to participate in a contest should be mostly about one's own desire to forecast plus whether or not the contest is well run -- I believe this one is well run, even if I am the flakiest dude on the planet in some other aspect of weather (or life).  ... meanwhile, I do take part in organizing contests on forums in UK and Ireland and have not run into the same rates of contest field attrition or decay over recent years, so perhaps it's a problem related more to Am Wx and the fact that many members stay in their regional forums mostly? Whatever, we need bigger fields, or do we? If there are twelve very committed people it has its own merits. I think if it was down to just me and two other guys, then might be time to apply the DNR.

Despite all of that, thanks for your continued support of the contests. We could make up quite a list of the departed though, and some regions have stopped appearing here altogether. I did try to offer regional forum portals for the contest, but only two people ever used those, anyone who heard about the contest through that regional announcement came over here to participate.

(will be p.m.'ing these thoughts if I don't think they were spotted, as we need to make some decisions in December about 2019)

 

Table of forecasts for December 2018

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Scotty Lightning ______________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0

wxallannj ___________________ +1.5 _+0.4 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _+1.2 _+1.7 ___ +1.4 _+1.6 _+0.3

hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.9 _+0.3 _--0.2 __ --1.2 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___ +0.6 _+1.8 _+1.4

DonSutherland.1 ______________+0.5 _--0.6 _--1.0 __ --0.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.3 _+0.5 _+1.1

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.6 __ +0.7 _--0.5 _+0.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.3

BKViking ___________________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.5 _--1.9 _--0.2 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.9 _--1.5 _--0.2 ___ --0.6 _+0.5 _+0.8

 

___ Consensus ______________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.8 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +0.3 _+1.0 _+1.0

 

RJay ______ (-3%) ___________--1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

Roger Smith _________________--1.0 _--1.3 _--1.0 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.8

IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.7 __ --0.9 _--1.5 _--0.5 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6

Stebo ______________________ --1.2 _--1.5 _--2.1 __ +0.8 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _+1.2

dmillz25 ____________________ --1.9 _--2.5 _--2.5 __ --2.0 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _--1.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ___________________ --3.1 _--2.8 _--2.9 __ --2.7 _--1.4 _--0.4 ___ --2.1 _+1.1 _+1.9

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is tied coldest for SEA.

Consensus is 7th ranked (median) of 13 forecasts.

Welcome back to IntenseBlizzard2014, I think you've played one or two of these before.

Good luck to all, and check the November thread to see how close the contests were at end of last month. 

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest

... this will move along month by month, updated to Jan 1st ... further updates will appear in the Jan 2019 thread

... nothing at SEA yet, the snow line in the region has rarely dropped below 500 ft asl this winter so far where it was on Dec 31. 

... I have had a moderate snowfall of about 20" so far in the mountains of BC. compares to 40" this time last winter. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.2 ___14.2 __ 7.2 __27.3 ___ 8.2 __ 0.0 __28.1 

 

RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

 

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

 

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

[Roger Smith]

First sets of anomalies and forecasts ...

 

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th ______ (7d) __________+0.3 _--1.3 _+0.2 ___--0.6 _+0.4 _+1.6 ___--4.0 _--0.6 _--1.2

15th _____ (14d) __________--1.1 _--2.2 _--2.6 ___+0.7 _--1.2 _--0.7 ___+1.9 _+0.9 _+2.2

22nd _____ (21d) __________+2.2 _+0.3 _+0.8 ___+3.8 _+1.2 _--0.2 ___+5.1 _+1.7 _+4.0

25th _____ (24d) __________+2.8 _+1.1 _+1.6 ___+3.9 _+1.3 _+0.4 ___+4.6 _+2.0 _+4.0

_29th ____ (28d) __________+3.2 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___+5.5 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___+3.2 _+1.3 _+3.8 xxx

 

_ 8th ____ (p14d) _________ --1.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--1.0 _--2.0 _--1.7 ___--1.0 _--1.8 _--1.5

_15th____ (p21d) _________ +1.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___+2.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___+4.0 _+2.0 _+2.5

_22nd____ (p28d) _________ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___+5.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___+3.7 _+1.5 _+2.5 xxx

 

_ 8th ____ (p24d) _________ --1.0 _--2.0 _--1.5 ___--1.0 _--1.0 _--0.3 ____ 0.0 _--1.0 _--0.5

_15th____ (p31d) _________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

_22nd____ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___+3.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.0 _+2.0

_25th____ (p31d) _________ +3.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+4.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.5 __ 0.0 _+3.2

end of month anomalies ____ +3.8 _+2.6 _+2.6 ___+5.5 _+3.3 _+1.2 ___ +2.5 _+0.3 _+3.3

______________________________________________

 

8th _ The month began quite warm in eastern and central regions, then turned colder. This cold trend is supposed to last a few more days, then go briefly milder, with another cold interval before the 20th and milder again towards Christmas. No large temperature swings are foreseen, most days expected to remain within 5 degrees of normal. The 16-day forecast is an extension of the 7-day NWS numbers using the GFS output for 8th to 16th. As many stations are converging on small final anomalies, the consensus score if Normal scores the max of 900 would be 756. Forecasts are scattered around that median to the extent that almost anybody could win the contest if they get top score in December. 

15th _ Rather late getting to this, so the 7-day forecast includes a known anomaly for 15th and is really a 6-day forecast to 21st. The extension to 31st is based on GFS showing a toned down mildish pattern in the east and somewhat less warmth than this coming week in the west. Most anomalies end up slightly positive at end of the month blending all things together. Would say it generally favors Scotty Lightning and wxallannj to finish 1-2 as I may fall to third, although I'm giving the west a chance to help me for a change. Anyone lower than third probably didn't separate their forecast enough to pass both Scotty and wxallannj, maybe a perfect outcome would just manage that. 

22nd _ The past week warmed up even more than expected and the average forecast error was 0.87 deg. The week ahead looks fairly close to normal then milder again, although milder throughout for ORD, and turning a bit colder than average for SEA (and later PHX). The three final days taken from GFS appear to be much colder in the eastern and central regions, and cool in the west, so have dropped all end of month values from 28th. Time to do some provisional scoring now.

25th _ Provisionals have been raised at several locations and dropped at PHX. The forecasts made on 8th for the anomalies through 24 days proved to be 4 degrees too warm on average, not sure how much of the blame for that goes to GFS and how much to myself, as the first seven days of the period were not the main problem (NWS component from 8th to 14th generally within one degree). Certainly the major warming around 21st was not signalled at that time. But another set of eyes might have estimated closer than I managed to do. Scoring will be adjusted, I think it may leave the scoring race very close between wxallannj and Scotty Lightning. 

29th _ Have updated anomalies, compare with 7d forecast by checking rows marked xxx. Average error was 0.7 deg. Not at home base, will update scoring and provisionals on 31st if possible then finalize scoring on Jan 1-2. Happy new year. 

Jan 1st _ Anomalies posted, scoring will be adjusted by end of today (strong coffee needed first). 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for December 2018

 

DCA and ORD are scored from rank order, max raw score below 60 rule. 

 

FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

wxallannj ___________________ 60 _ 56 _ 56 __ 172 __ 60_ 58 _ 90 __ 208__ 380 __ 78 _ 74 _ 40 __ 192 ___ 572

Scotty Lightning ______________60 _ 78_ 68 __206 __ 45 _ 64_ 94 __ 203 __ 409 __ 40_ 86 _ 34 __ 160 ___ 569

DonSutherland.1 ______________45 _ 36 _ 28 __ 109 __ 40 _ 54 _100__ 194 __ 303 __ 56 _ 96_ 56 __ 208 ___ 511

hudsonvalley21 _______________50 _ 54 _ 44 __ 148 __ 20 _ 48 _ 84 __ 152 __ 300 __ 62 _ 70 _ 62 __ 194 ___ 494

RodneyS ____________________ 40 _ 48 _ 36 __ 124 __ 50 _ 24 _ 80 __ 154 __ 278__ 64 _ 86 _ 40 __ 190 ___ 468

___ Normal __________________40 _ 48 _ 48 __ 136 __ 43 _ 34 _ 76 __ 153 __ 289 __ 50 _ 94 _ 34 __ 178 ___ 467

 

Roger Smith _________________ 25 _ 22 _ 28 __ 075 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 190 __100_ 66_ 90 __ 256 ___ 446

 

___ Consensus _______________ 30 _ 32 _ 32 __ 094 __ 35 _ 08 _ 72 __ 115 __ 209 __ 56 _ 86 _ 54 __ 196 ___ 405

 

BKViking ____________________ 35 _ 36 _ 32 __ 103 __ 16 _ 00 _ 72 __ 088 __ 191 __ 46 _ 88 _ 50 __ 174 ___ 375

RJay ________________________25 _ 28 _ 28 __ 081 __ 25 _ 14 _ 56 __ 095 __ 176 __ 70 _ 86 _ 54 __ 210 _ 386

__________ (-3%) ____________ 24 _ 27 _ 27 __ 078 __ 24 _ 14 _ 54 __ 092 __ 170 __ 68 _ 83 _ 52 __ 203 ___ 373

IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 __ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 __ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 ___ 365

Tom ________________________30 _ 32 _ 30 __ 092 __ 12 _ 04 _ 72 __ 088 __ 180 __ 38 _ 96 _ 50 __ 184 ___ 364

Stebo _______________________12 _ 18 _ 06 __ 036 __ 55 _ 00 _ 52 __ 107 __ 143 __ 30 _ 64 _ 58 __ 152 ___ 295

dmillz25 _____________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 __ 08 _ 00 _ 52 __ 060 __ 068 __ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 ___ 276

wxdude64 ___________________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 __ 004 __ 04 _ 06 _ 68 __ 078 __ 082 __ 08 _ 84 _ 72 __ 164 ___ 246

____________________________________________________

Provisional scoring for Regional Rumble, Dec 2018

 

Region ___________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTAL

 

PHL ________________206 ______ 203 ______ 184 _____ 593

NYC _______________ 172 ______ 208 ______ 208 _____ 588

Mid-Atl _____________124 ______ 154 ______ 190 _____ 468

___ Normal _________ 136 ______ 153 ______ 178 _____ 467

C+W ______________ 075 ______ 115 ______ 256 _____ 446

___ Consensus ______ 094 ______ 115 ______ 196 _____ 405

GL/OV _____________ 036 ______ 107 ______ 152 _____ 295

_______________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Dec 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

---- --- <<< ===-- -- -- Final Results for 2018 -- -- --===>>> --- ----

 

  Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

... best scores marked * include one for regular forecasters in contest in May excluding higher scores of AFewUniversesbelowNormal.

... best scores marked ^ include one for regular forecasters in January excluding high scores of Mercurial.

... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

... same for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added)

... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

wxallannj __________ 700 _707 _751 ____2158 ____ 644 _642 _756 ____2042 ___ 4200 __ 001 201 .0.2 

Roger Smith ________777 _770 _753 ___ 2300 ____ 606 _662 _614 ____1882 ___ 4182 __3*4*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY

Scotty Lightning  ____ 687 _761 _730 ___ 2178 ____ 603 _628 _749 ____1980 ___ 4158 __3^44 213 .5^.1_JAN^ OCT NOV DEC

DonSutherland.1 ____ 684 _661 _658 ____2003 ____ 544 _716 _740 ____2000 ___ 4003 ___ 000 222 .0.2 

hudsonvalley21 _____ 635 _669 _650 ____1954 ____ 513 _647 _852 ___ 2012 ___ 3966 ___ 110 001 .0.0

BKViking ___________656 _696 _688 ____2040 ____ 554 _575 _771 ____1900 ___ 3940 ___ 001 000 .0.1

 

___Consensus ______ 657 _662 _670 ____1989 ____ 584 _611 _748 ____1943 ___ 3932 ___ 000 100 .0.0

 

RodneyS ___________617 _640 _614 ____1871 ____ 624 _619 _740 ____1983 ___ 3854 ___ 210 212 .0.5 _ MAR, JUL, SEP

Tom ______________ 664 _664 _677 ____2005 ____ 531 _633 _658 ____1822 ___ 3827 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN

Stebo _____________ 597 _634 _615 ____1846 ____ 623 _594 _733 ____1950 ___ 3796 ___ 020 112 .0.1

wxdude64 _________ 668 _647 _616 ____1931 ____ 540 _572 _691 ____1803 ___ 3734 ___34^0 002 .2.1

 

___Normal _________593 _676 _652 ____1921 ____ 580 _565 _629 ____1774 ___ 3695 ___ 112 222 .1.1__JAN^ NOV

 

RJay ______________616 _605 _634 ____1855 ____ 493 _618 _690 ____1801 ___ 3656 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG

dmillz25 ___________568 _546 _523 ____1637 ____ 503 _592 _745 ____1840 ___ 3477 ___ 000 011 .0.0

 

jaxjagman (-2 mo) __ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1

so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/12) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx_(5/12) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/12) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/12)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/12) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/12) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) __ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_ 060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J) _ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

IntenseBlizzard2014 (D)  16 _030 _034 ____ 080 ____ 035 _004 _066 ____ 105 ____ 185 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow __ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October, November, December

... A few Universes below Normal (2/12) played May and July.

all others shown (2/12) missed March to December, Orangeburgwx (5/11) missed January, July to December

 ... mappy (5/12) missed June to December, and H2OTown_wx (3/12) missed April to December.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring ... see note before

first section for explanation of symbols beside best scores ...

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 649 _ 836 _ 750 ____ 2235 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 6393 (= 1) __OCT, NOV

RodneyS_______________ 754 _ 780 _ 677 ____ 2211 __________ 2 4#2 __May, Oct__ 6065 (= 7)  MAR,APR,JUL

wxallannj ______________ 692 _ 820 _ 643 ____ 2155 __________ 2 1 1 __ Mar, Nov __6355 (= 2) __ DEC

BKViking _______________561 _ 817 _ 768 ____ 2146 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 6086 (= 6) __ JUN

hudsonvalley21 _________ 641 _ 739 _ 755 _____2135 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 6101 (= 5)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 594 _ 794 _ 745 _____2133 __________2^2 1 __ Jan _____ 6136 (= 4) _ JAN^

__ Consensus __________ 616 _ 802 _ 700 _____2118 __________ 0 1 0 ____________6050 (= 8)

Tom __________________ 664 _ 796 _ 628 _____2088 __________ 1 2 0 ____________5915 (= 8) 

RJay __________________638 _ 734 _ 708 _____2080 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5736 (= 9) __ SEP

dmillz25 _______________ 611 _ 788 _ 675 _____2074 __________ 0 1 0 _ Jun  ______ 5551 (=11)

Roger Smith ____________567 _ 688 _ 810 _____2065 __________ 3 0 3 _ Jan, Dec ___6247 (= 3) __ MAY

__Normal ______________628 _ 742 _ 650 _____2020 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 5715 (=10) __ FEB

wxdude64 _____________ 552 _ 680 _ 613 _____1845 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 5579 (=10) 

Stebo _________________ 474 _ 711 _ 426 _____1611 __________ 1 0 0 __ Nov _____ 5407 (=12)

jaxjagman __(-2 mo) ____ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=13)

so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

Orangeburgwx (5/12)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/12) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/12) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/12) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/12) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/12) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

Intense Blizzard 2014 (D) __042 _ 092 _ 046 _____ 180 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 365 (=25)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=26)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - December _) _ Final results

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader

 

New York City ____2445 ____ 2394____ 2569_____ 7408 ______0

Mid-Atlantic _______ 2391 ____ 2374 ____ 2333 _____ 7098 ____310

Philadelphia _______ 2527____ 2162 ____ 2331 _____ 7020 ____388

Central + Western __2454 ____ 2021 ____ 2111 _____ 6586 ____ 822

__ Consensus _____ 1989 ____ 1943 ____ 2118 _____ 6050 ____1358

__ Normal ________ 1921 _____1774 ____ 2020 _____ 5715 ___ 1693

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1846 ____ 1950 ____ 1611 _____ 5407 ___ 1815

Tenn Valley (10/12) _1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 2390

_______________________________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast report for Dec 2018 and updated annual standings

 

Seven of nine months qualified in December. 

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and SEA all ran warmer than all forecasts, so that high forecast for each was an extreme forecast winner. Those were Scotty Lightning for DCA, NYC, BOS and ATL, and wxallannj tied for DCA and winning ORD; Roger Smith took SEA.

DEN was equal to high forecast (Roger Smith).

IAH went to third highest forecast (Don S) which meant it did not qualify. PHX went to tied third lowest forecasts of Don S and Tom, with two considerably lower, so it also did not qualify.

That leaves the final standings in the extreme forecast contest within a contest as follows ...

 

Roger Smith _________19#-1 

Scotty Lightning (SD)___13-1

RodneyS _____________12-3

__ Normal ___________ 12-7

RJay ________________10-2

wxallannj _____________6-0

wxdude64 ____________ 6-4

DonSutherland1 ________5-1

hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* 

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

Stebo ________________ 2-1

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Tom _________________ 1-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

# wins against regular field excluding "a few Univ b n" who entered two months.

# x 3 for Roger Smith, one for Orangeburgwx.

__________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

RANKINGS for each location and region (total scores, 2018 contests)

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ cent ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ west ____ all nine

Scotty Lightning ______________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______ 5 ___ 6 ___ 4 ______4 ________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4______ 1 ______ 1

wxallannj ___________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 3 _______ 1 ___ 4 ___ 3 ______ 1 ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 9 ______ 3 ______2

Roger Smith _________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ______ 1 _______4 ___ 2 ___13 ______8 ________ 9 ___11 ___ 1 _____ 10 _____ 3

DonSutherland.1 _____________ 4 ___ 7 ___ 6 ______ 6 _______ 7 ___ 1 ___ 6t _____ 3 ________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 5 ______ 6 ______ 4

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 8 ___ 5 ___ 7 ______ 7 ______ 10 ___ 3 ___ 1 ______ 2 ________ 5 ___ 8 ___ 3 ______ 5 ______ 5

BKViking ____________________7 ___ 4 ___ 4 ______ 4 _______ 6 ___11t __ 2 ______ 7 ________10 ___3 ___ 2 ______ 4 ______ 6

RodneyS ____________________9 ___ 9 __ 11 ______ 9 _______ 2 ___ 7 ___ 6t _____ 5 ________ 1 ___ 7 ___ 7 ______ 2 ______ 7

Tom ________________________6 ___ 6 ___ 5 ______ 5 _______9 ___ 5 ___11 _____10 ________ 3 ___ 4 ___10 ______ 7 ______8

RJay _______________________10___11 ___ 8 _____ 10 ______ 13 ___ 8 ___10 _____12 ________ 6 ___ 9 ___ 6 ______ 8 ______9

wxdude64 ___________________5 ___ 8 ___ 9 ______ 8 _______ 8 ___ 13 ___ 9 _____11 ________11___12 __ 11 _____ 11 _____10

dmillz25 ____________________13 ___13 __ 13 _____ 13 ______11 ___ 10 ___ 5 _____ 9 ________ 7 ___ 6 ___ 8 ______ 9 _____ 11

Stebo ______________________11 ___10 __ 10 _____ 11 _______ 3 ___ 9 ___ 8 ______6 ________12 ___10 __13 ______12 _____12

jaxjagman _ (-2 mo) __________12 ___12 __ 12 _____ 12 ______ 12 ___11t __12 ____ 13 ________13 ___13 __ 12 _____ 13 _____13

________________________________________________________________________________________________

(it should be noted that jaxjagman was in the range of 4th to 6th after ten months before dropping out).

Thanks for entering the contests in 2018, hope you enjoyed the challenge, and that these rankings will help you focus in on where you can improve (in my case, pretty obvious).

[RodneyS]

Congratulations to Roger, wxallannj, and especially overall winner Scotty for their impressive performances. 

[wxdude64]

Congrats to all the winners!

[donsutherland1]

Congratulations to all.

[Roger Smith]

It's interesting how many times the extreme forecast wins, realizing there are a few ties and taking note that we award a win to a regular player against field when an occasional entrant wins, and not having time to go back through twelve contests and add up the actual numbers, I think at least 70 out of 108 possible months had an extreme forecast winner and then taking away the "losses" which mean that the second most extreme actually won, perhaps about 60 out of 108, more than half the time it pays to go large -- as long as you don't go too large and in the wrong direction which risks getting a zero score. Our "extreme forecasters" finished the contest in this order ... 3rd, 1st, (normal), 7th, 9th, 2nd, 10th, 4th, 5th, then three who were not entered that often, fniishing up with our regular 12th and 8th. That shows no real trend in terms of going extreme being a good or bad strategy although maybe slightly skewed towards it being good? 

I have a feeling that if you just said +1.0 for every forecast you might do fairly well. If Normal gained 20 points 70% of the time (by predicting +1.0) and lost 20 25% of the time, with the rest being random scatter, then Normal would have 45% x 108 x 20 more points which is 972 more, and that would equate to first place (Normal finished equivalent to 10th place). In fact, I think Normal wins under those assumptions at any value between +0.5 and +1.5. Our winner often forecasts in that range. Also Normal wins under my calculations at 60% vs 35% gain to loss, perhaps I have underestimated the number of random scatter cases (which would be where the actual result is between zero and one degree absolute). Anyway, something to consider next year, it's the opposite of extreme forecast strategy because it would tend to hug consensus more.