cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 30 minutes ago, Baum said: There's an 18Z euro? The dry northerly surface flow really sharpens up that northern edge on that Euro map. Yikes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Regardless of track, NAM has been consistent in advertising a rocking death band within the snow shield. Someone is going to see a dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Regardless of track, NAM has been consistent in advertising a rocking death band within the snow shield. Someone is going to see a dumping. Yeah definitely gonna be some nice rates for quite awhile wherever the main band sets up. Wind doesn't look quite as impressive as some of the runs the past few days, but it will still be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 36 minutes ago, Baum said: There's an 18Z euro? LOL. My exact thoughts. Thought it was only 12z and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Be interesting to see if the GFS sinks back to the consensus or remains the northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yes the Euro now has an 18z run. Started few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 As someone said earlier, I wouldn't want to be on the forecast desk with the major track waffling amongst the globals. IWX is in the same boat even though the heavy snow band will be northwest of most of the CWA, although wind and temps will be an issue here. In fact, when asked about it earlier, here is the reply : (5:07 PM) abc57-tyler.sebree: Thoughts on the GFS vs. EURO battle on Sunday? Ugh. (5:19 PM) nwsbot: IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) (5:23 PM) nwsiwx-megan.dodson: *Slams head into wall* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 25 minutes ago, IWXwx said: As someone said earlier, I wouldn't want to be on the forecast desk with the major track waffling amongst the globals. IWX is in the same boat even though the heavy snow band will be northwest of most of the CWA, although wind and temps will be an issue here. In fact, when asked about it earlier, here is the reply : (5:07 PM) abc57-tyler.sebree: Thoughts on the GFS vs. EURO battle on Sunday? Ugh. (5:19 PM) nwsbot: IWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) (5:23 PM) nwsiwx-megan.dodson: *Slams head into wall* I agree with Megan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 00z GFS out an rolling. And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: 00z GFS out an rolling. And so it begins... Ain't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: 00z GFS out an rolling. And so it begins... It’s gonna be north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Wound up tight in NE Missouri at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, IllinoisWedges said: Ain't budging. Looks a touch south. Either that or a touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Looks a touch south. Either that or a touch slower. Slower, but same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Hopefully we get better consensus on Saturday. Tremendous differences in sensible impact in a highly populated/traveled part of the LOT cwa depending on model, and on a much busier travel day than typical. I don't envy RC and the gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 This is madness. Still two distinct model camps. Hope 12z has better consensus. I still think GFS is too north. And 12km nam may be too south. A compromise is best at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Hopefully we get better consensus on Saturday. Tremendous differences in sensible impact in the LOT cwa depending on model. I don't envy RC and the gang. Sure hope so.. Huge differences still. For some areas it could mean 8 inches or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I’m very surprised the GFS has been so steadfastly northwest. I can’t remember the last time the GFS has been northwest of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Sure hope so.. Huge differences still. For some areas it could mean 8 inches or nothing. Heck the 18z euro gives us an inch, but the 00z GFS gives us 13 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Well if the system ends up being more wrapped up like GFS that track makes sense. Other models like nam and euro are weaker but still potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 00z Canadian is a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Canadian is a bit south. So was the RGEM, but those two tend to trend similarly, for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: So was the RGEM, but those two tend to trend similarly, for obvious reasons. What about the RDPS? That’s coming in in the middle for IA, but taking a more northward direction for areas east, most of this sub. The RDPS seems like it would be believable for ia but too far north for Chicago’s outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 To my layman's perspective, it seems that all of the short-range models are similar (in the placement of the low at least) to the NAM. Dunno if it's worth pointing out or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said: What about the RDPS? That’s coming in in the middle for IA, but taking a more northward direction for areas east, most of this sub. The RDPS seems like it would be believable for ia but too far north for Chicago’s outcome RGEM and RDPS are the same. Just as GGEM and GDPS are also the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, hlcater said: RGEM and RDPS are the same. Just as GGEM and GDPS are also the same. Thank you! I use pivotal weather so all this time I’ve wondered... where are all these other models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Thought we'd see a little better agreement on the 00z models tonight. GFS seems like an outlier, but it definitely shouldn't be discounted just yet. It seems a bit odd that we're riding the northern edge on the Euro, and the southern edge on the GFS at 36hrs out. Blending the two puts this area right in the middle though, so I'm feeling pretty confident for some of the heaviest snows right in the heart of the DVN cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Say what you will, but by far the most consistent model has been the GFS-FV3. It’s been through the heart of E IA for days now essentially unwavered. It remains to be seen how it performs in the winter, but the pure consistency should be noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 FV3-GFS not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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