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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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5 minutes ago, King James said:


I’ll take that, looks to have upped amounts on the southern edge


.

Not that I buy that map, but at least we are lining up the bulk of this during the overnight hours (bad for viewing purposes though haha).  Every half degree or whole degree helps, and it's nice to take any daytime assist to temps out of the equation.

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9 minutes ago, Maneee said:

Snowing in Northbrook. Mixing in ORD as of 20 mins ago. Dusting on the ground already. Feels like LOT (and some of the hi res guidance) may have slightly missed the cold air advection the the WPC picked up on in their discussion. 

 

Eh, everything appears to be rolling out as the Hi Res stuff predicted. HRRR has been doing well across N IL 

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4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

He is caught in a little pseudo “pivot point” for the dry slot 

We really maximized this whole dry slot experience lol.  Starting to see a few flakes again.  Had a good hour and a half of downtime.  Should rip from here on out though.  Winds have really picked up in the past hour.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

We really maximized this whole dry slot experience lol.  Starting to see a few flakes again.  Had a good hour and a half of downtime.  Should rip from here on out though.  Winds have really picked up in the past hour.

Even as modeled WITH the dryslot, we still should make a run at 10-12”. Going to be insane when this gets cranking 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
235 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...
233 PM CST

Through Monday...

A bit higher based frontogenesis on the nose of strong lower level
warm advection is driving a band of snow/sleet along and north of
I-88 this afternoon. Outside of the corridor of this band,
precipitation is largely rain, but the intense nature of the
forcing is driving a changeover to sleet/snow, and accumulations
have begun largely along and north of I-88. Expect accumulations
to continue across our far northern tier of counties this
afternoon, with accums likely to ramp down for areas farther south
as warmer air pushes in the and precipitation shield eases in
these areas. Webcams across Rockford indicate how rapidly things
will decline across the area as the more widespread precipitation
shield arrives and rates overcome the warmer low levels easily. The
lower level frontogenetical signature will strengthen later today
and this evening and therefore expect a significant ramp up in
precipitation late this afternoon and evening.

Low pressure is currently across south central Missouri and still
strengthening just ahead of an impressive upper trough in the
region. After a brief lull in action this afternoon for areas
outside of the snow band, expect a significant ramp up in winter
impacts. Winds are increasing out the northeast ahead of the
deepening low. Thunder has been reported out ahead of this system
in an area of 7+ deg/km of mid level lapse rates across central
Illinois.

Warm advection ahead of the system will significantly ramp up
also, and expect a blossoming precipitation shield here with time.
Areas along and southeast of I-55 are still quite mild, and the
precipitation will begin as rain in these area. Without belaboring
the details of the storm, changes we have noted largely still fit
our message that precipitation will transition to all snow across
the area through the evening hours, likely in the 6pm-9pm across
the Chicago metro, longer for areas southeast of this. Ensemble
guidance has been trending toward increased confidence in the 1-2"
per hour snowfall rates, and blizzard conditions for at least a
portion of the area. These conditions will begin to set in across
our I-39 corridor as early as evening, with the mid evening and
overnight hours being prime-time as head toward Chicago.

From the earlier update: Regarding headlines, the low track being
just a bit south based on observations suggest a swath of fairly
strong winds being coincident with heavy snowfall this evening. We
tried to highlight the area that has the best overlap of 1-2" per
hour rate potential combined with the strong winds for a longer
period of time for the upgrade to Blizzard Warning. The strongest
winds may actually setup across LaSalle/Livingston counties where
rates may be a tad lower, meanwhile Winnebago will still get good
snow rates but be a bit more removed from the strongest winds.
Therefore near blizzard/occasional whiteout conditions remain
possible in these areas, but at this point the
Ogle/Lee/Kane/LaSalle/DeKalb corridor is really in a sweet spot.
This is not to say we cannot rule out neighboring counties such as
Dupage/Will/Winnebago are out of the woods, and these counties
could be considered as the storm approaches. Cook county is a
challenge as the strongest winds will be at the lakefront where
snowfall accums/rates will be reduced initially due to the warmer
low level temperatures, but northwest Cook County is a concerning
area too.

But the message does not change: Conditions will rapidly
deteriorate tonight with very heavy snow and strong winds creating
life threatening conditions which could make travel nearly
impossible in some locations. This includes the counties that
border the current Blizzard Warning areas. Meanwhile, strong winds
at the lakefront will likely lead to some lakeshore flooding as
very strong winds build waves that will batter the shore.

Model guidance suggest that the heaviest snow will wind down
during the beginning of the rush hour, but gusty northwest winds
will continue with some lighter snows closer to the IL/IN
stateline and across Chicago, some impacts are likely to continue
before the precip shield shifts east.

KMD
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4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Even as modeled WITH the dryslot, we still should make a run at 10-12”. Going to be insane when this gets cranking 

I noticed last night the models had us get into a little dry slot as the fronto band lifted north.  For awhile this morning I was starting to think the fronto band might not make it as far north as it did.  Basically what the guidance last night was showing ended up being correct.  I will say this, that was a loooooong hour and a half lol.  Glad to be back in the precip again.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

- No big changes to the going forecast.

- The snow will be disruptive, but not crippling, thus we kept the
Winter Weather Advisory and did not upgrade to a Winter Storm
Warning.

- Monday morning commute will be much slower than normal.

- Confidence still high on a plowable snow.

- Heaviest snow between I-94 and I-96 where 5 to 7 inches expected,
locally higher.

- Lake effect snow expected Monday night through Tuesday night with
some accumulation possible mainly west of US-131.
.

&&

 

Watch and warning map looks interesting.. even DTX pulled the trigger on a warning. GRR will be updating and issue a warning after 6” has fallen and there’s been 200 accidents CWA-wide haha.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

- No big changes to the going forecast.

- The snow will be disruptive, but not crippling, thus we kept the
Winter Weather Advisory and did not upgrade to a Winter Storm
Warning.

- Monday morning commute will be much slower than normal.

- Confidence still high on a plowable snow.

- Heaviest snow between I-94 and I-96 where 5 to 7 inches expected,
locally higher.

- Lake effect snow expected Monday night through Tuesday night with
some accumulation possible mainly west of US-131.
.

&&

 

Watch and warning map looks interesting.. even DTX pulled the trigger on a warning. GRR will be update and issue a warning after 6” has fallen and there’s been 200 accidents CWA-wide haha.  

 

Typical.  LOL.

 

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It won't exactly be a flash freeze around here, but I'm wondering how messy this will get.  As mentioned earlier, could see around an inch (if not more) of rain before the changeover, and there's no downtime between precip transition to try to dry things out.  Pretty much ripping rain to ripping snow.  Could get a nasty ice layer underneath.

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9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Definitely liking along and just south of a cyclone to DKB to get some of the most brutal blizzard conditions. Wind collocates with heavy rates, should be ripping like we haven’t seen in some time 

Looks like the high winds hit after 6 or 7. Things look to get pretty crazy for awhile. 

Snowing pretty nicely here. Prob about half mile moderate in my estimation.

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