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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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0105 PM     HEAVY SNOW       OSCEOLA                 41.03N 93.77W  
11/25/2018  M15.5 INCH       CLARKE             IA   PUBLIC             
  
            PUBLIC RELAYED IMAGE OF 15.5 INCHES OF   
            SNOWFALL IN THEIR YARD. APPEARED TO NOT BE   
            IN A DRIFTED AREA. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.   

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RAPMW_prec_snow_021.png&key=6494d3352652dea9509a60a75726d0d79be40cc9712ec31766b638e3cf8c04b3

 

I’m above the decimal in the ‘14.8’ on the 18z rap (west of Caledonia, IL in far eastern Winnebago county). Had no pre onset rain, drizzle, etc - just started -sn about 15 minutes ago, with no liquid on the ground it’s accumulated to a coating quickly. Very small/fine dendrites.

 

LOT left us out of the blizzard warning, I’m guessing those warning boxes were traced over the 12z ec as the warnings seemed to mirror it, which had us in a little screw hole. Naturally, go team RAP!

 

 

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I just don't trust the southern edge of the heavy snowfall model forecast yet (say the SE 25 miles)

 

historically a low moving near SPI to NW IND is way to far north for heavy snow for Peoria county (and points NE)

 

mixing problems (sleet) usually occur or 33 and rain ..until the back edge of the deformation zone moves in with heavy rates but short duration

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We picked up a quick half inch with the tail-end of that fronto band, and about a half inch of rain before that.  Right now it's just cloudy, and getting windier.  Lull should be over within the hour, and then it looks to be rip city for a good 6hrs, with some lighter snows after that up close to midnight.  I'm sticking with my previous 12-14" call for here/QC despite the possibility of a mini screw zone.  Euro shows 13-14" as well.  

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I just don't trust the southern edge of the heavy snowfall model forecast yet (say the SE 25 miles)

 

historically a low moving near SPI to NW IND is way to far north for heavy snow for Peoria county (and points NE)

 

mixing problems (sleet) usually occur ..until the back edge of the deformation zone moves in with heavy rates but short duration

100% agree. But the trend is our friend.  Expect less and hope for the surprise

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5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I just don't trust the southern edge of the heavy snowfall model forecast yet

 

historically a low moving near SPI to NW IND is way to far north for heavy snow for Peoria county (and points NE)

 

mixing problems (sleet) usually occur ..until the back edge of the deformation zone moves in with heavy rates but short duration

The models have been showing a narrow sleet transition zone... it looks pretty progressive but definitely gotta keep it in mind as even wasting an hour or two more than expected would cut into amounts.  Maybe the low occluding  (especially after it passes your longitude) will help keep the transition zone narrow and progressive?

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